UFC Seattle has been heavily criticized for the amount of injuries over the last few weeks. However, even with the cancelations, the card isn’t half-bad.
The main events have held strong. Henry Cejudo makes his return against Song Yadong. For the co-main event, Anthony Hernandez and Brendan Allen battle again after an LFA showdown earlier in their careers.
The preliminary fights were the most affected but the UFC found ways to keep it together. Outside of the Andre Fili fight or Mansur Abdul-Malik, avoiding the prelims until the weigh-ins conclude makes sense. As for the main card, here’s a breakdown of every fights and the best bets to consider for UFC Seattle.
Henry Cejudo vs. Yadong Song
If you break down Henry Cejudo’s UFC career, there are holes you can criticize. From fighting TJ Dillashaw after a brutal weight cut to 125, to beating Marlon Moraes for the UFC bantamweight title. Some people believe he also didn’t beat Demetrious Johnson. Without taking anything away from Cejudo, all his big wins come with a caveat.
For Yadong Song, it will come down to durability. If he can’t find the big blows to finish Cejudo or even slow him down, the championship rounds will be tough. In all of his losses, takedowns have played a major role. If Cejudo stays true to his style and does his homework, this is a winnable fight for him.
With Cejudo’s age and time away being the biggest issue, keeping an eye on his live betting line is the best move. Song tends to fade and struggles with good wrestlers, making Cejudo a dark horse to secure the victory. Cejudo to Win at 2.55 is the best value right now.
Brendan Allen vs. Anthony Hernandez
Everyone and their mother is riding Anthony Hernandez this weekend, and rightfully so. He’s a big favorite, riding a win streak, and has already beaten Brendan Allen in 2018. However, when you dig a little deeper, you start to see where both careers are headed.
Before Allen lost to the inevitable title challenger Nassourdine Imavov, he was riding a seven-fight win streak in the UFC. His losses are against top-level talent, and he’s improved tremendously since his first meeting with Hernandez. He’s the bigger fighter with far more experience and has no issues fighting from his back.
Hernandez will spam takedowns, but Allen will come back with tight elbows, submission attempts, and constant transitions to reverse the position. With this being three rounds, Allen doesn’t have to worry about fading, and if he lands takedowns of his own, he is the much better grappler.
While Allen to Win at 3.60 is attractive, Allen to get Over 1.5 Takedowns is 2.75. If he’s losing the striking battle, he’ll look for takedowns and has no issues riding top control. Hernandez sports a 65% takedown defense and has been taken down by worse fighters in his UFC career. The best part about this bet is Allen can still lose by a close decision or a late finish and you still cash if he lands two or more takedowns.
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Rob Font vs. Jean Matsumoto
Not to be riding too many underdogs on the main card, but Rob Font presents another exciting opportunity against an unproven prospect in Jean Matsumoto. He’s been working with Tristar and looked great against Kyler Phillips last time out.
Matsumoto is 3-0 in the UFC but has a 46% striking defense and 40% striking accuracy. This is a massive step up in competition and Font is a great volume boxer. Unless he can land takedowns and keep Font on his back, it will be a long night for him.
Font’s four losses since 2018 are Jose Aldo, Marlon Vera, Cory Sandhagen, and Deiveson Figueiredo. Despite the age and diminishing returns, Font has never been finished and will have every opportunity to win this fight on the feet. If the number is only considering age and the takedowns, Font to Win at 2.36 seems like a good number to take a chance on the veteran.
Jean Silva vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan
This is the easiest pick on the card. Unless Melsik Baghdasaryan can put together a strong striking performance for three rounds, Jean Silva has all the tools to make this a quick victory. He has the power, pressure, and volume, something Baghdasaryan will struggle with early in the fight.
Silva to Finish is 1.69. If Baghdasaryan throws with more volume, this would be a closer fight, but Silva has him beat everywhere. If you don’t believe in the submission, you can isolate Silva to Win via KO at 2.05. Whether you’re looking for a parlay piece at 1.20 or believe Silva is the real deal, this fight has all the makings of a showcase spot for a budding star in the UFC. Don’t overthink this one.
Alonzo Menifield vs. Julius Walker
Alonzo Menifield is in a buy-low spot against newcomer Julius Walker. When you study the tape, Walker’s skills are primarily on the ground and he isn’t very technical. Menifield is improving everywhere and took two devastating KO losses that set him back. In this spot, he looks like the right side.
Menifield is a beast in the first round and his cardio has improved for three rounds. Unless he gets takedown, controlled, and submitted, it’s hard to visualize him losing this fight. Menifield to Win is 1.44 after getting hammered over the last few days. If you’re confident, take the Menifield to Finish at 1.66 or by KO at 2.00. I’ll be looking at the first-round finish because if he wins decisively, it’ll likely be early and on the feet.
With all the success we had last week, let’s hope we can keep it going with UFC Seattle. There should be plenty of live spots, especially on the prelims, where we can hop on some value, but these are the best looks on the main card before we get the official weigh-in results on Friday. The fights will take place live from Seattle this Saturday.
As always, keep it locked to SlotsFighter.com for all your UFC breakdowns, analysis, and best bets.
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