UFC 320 delivered, as expected, and fans are excited to see Alex Pereira back on top. Merab Dvalishvili continued his quest as one of the best bantamweights of all time, and Jiri Prochazka continues to be one of the most exciting fighters on the UFC roster.
We finally got in the win column in a big way, and could have done even better if Macy Chiasson and Patchy Mix lived up to the hype. While the Chiasson loss was one we should have avoided, given her previous performances, it’s quite surprising Mix lost that fight. Even with those let-down spots, we come away with +2.7 Units won, for a total of +12.08 Units since we started tracking earlier this year.
This week, the UFC returns to Brazil for UFC Rio, where Charles Oliveira gets back into action. The entire card has at least one Brazilian in every fight, which should create an unforgettable atmosphere in the Farmasi Arena. Let’s take a look at the main card, and only for this week, we’ll be looking for any betting value earlier in the week.
UFC RIO MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Lucas Almeida
2.24
1.67
Michael Aswell
Lucas Almeida and Michael Aswell are at different stages of their UFC careers. Almeida should be excited to fight in front of the Brazilian crowd, but his 2-3 UFC record isn’t anything to write home about. While he has fought solid UFC competition, he’s been finished in two of his three losses and now gets a solid up-and-coming boxer that the UFC wants to see do well.
Aswell is getting a chance after stepping in on short notice against Bolaji Oki. While many thought Oki would find the win easily, Aswell put up a pretty good fight and lost via unanimous decision. Sometimes in MMA, there’s a lot to gain from losses. Aswell has already fought a big-name prospect in his first fight and now gets a chance to play villain in Brazil.
Aswell has never been finished and looks like a well-rounded fighter for his current level of competition. This should be a stand-up war with both guys looking to land big shots. For Almeida, as long as he avoids the early finish, he should keep this competitive against a younger and hungrier fighter. After missing weight last time out, Almeida will have to make sure that everything goes well heading into the fight. This should be an exciting, back-and-forth war, with the younger fighter likely edging out the veteran over three rounds.
Ricardo Ramos
1.54
2.54
Kaan Ofli
Based on the betting lines and hometown crowd, there’s a clear advantage for Ricardo Ramos. He’s the most experienced fighter against much better competition, and is starting to find ways to last three rounds. In the past, he struggled with durability, but he’s 1-1 in his last two fights, going to decisions. Before that, he had lost two straight fights via guillotine choke in the first round, something he’s had to improve on to find success.
At 8-6 at just 30 years old, Ramos has a lot going for him in terms of experience, and he’s in a great spot to show that off against the older Kaan Ofli. After making his way through the Ultimate Fighter, Ofli has lost his last two UFC fights, one via strikes and the most recent via decision. He’s 11-4 overall, but this looks like a spot where the UFC is giving Ramos a chance to show off his skills in front of the Brazilian crowd, while giving Ofli a chance to prove he belongs in the UFC.
Ofli will not only have a six-inch reach disadvantage, but one would have to assume that Ramos is also the better grappler. To pull off the upset, Ofli has to hit the gas pedal right away and catch Ramos off-guard, similar to some of his previous opponents. If you give Ramos time to get comfortable and set things up, this could be a long night for Ofli, and potentially his last fight in the UFC.
Jhonata Diniz
1.81
2.02
Mario Pinto
In a heavyweight scrap, Jhonata Diniz takes on Mario Pinto in what should be considered one of the better heavyweight prospect bouts. Diniz is 9-1, only losing to veteran Marcin Tybura last year, before coming back strong against Alvin Hines. Pinto has yet to lose in his 10-0 career, and he’s coming off a massive second-round finish over Austen Lane. Before that, he finished Lucas Camacho in the first two minutes of his Dana White Contender Series fight.
The one obvious part about this matchup is that Pinto does look like the better athlete; whether or not he’s the better fighter remains to be seen. Diniz throws more strikes overall, but has just a 59.04% striking accuracy. In the limited action we’ve seen from Pinto, he lands slightly less, but at 73.17% accuracy. If this stays standing, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Pinto find ways to win this fight. He won’t be the bigger guy, but he should be the faster guy.
In terms of the path to victory, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Diniz challenge Pinto on the ground. He should have some strength and technical aspects to his top game that should neutralize Pinto’s power, at least early in the fight. Diniz doesn’t have a submission win but hasn’t lost on the ground either. While Pinto does have one submission win, it would be interesting to see how he responds to Diniz controlling him from the top and landing big blows. In terms of price, if you think Pinto can keep this fight standing, he’s worthy of the slight underdog shot.
Vincent Luque
4.80
1.20
Joel Alvarez
Outside of WMMA fights on this card, this is by far the biggest betting mismatch on the UFC Rio card, and rightfully so. Vincent Luque and Joel Alvarez are the perfect example of two fighters at opposite ends of their career, and it’s almost surprising to see the UFC put Luque in this spot. At the same time, this fight is in Brazil, and the upset would send shockwaves through the MMA community.
Alvarez deserves all the hype he can get. In the last five years, he’s 4-1 after only losing to Arman Tsarukyan. He’s coming into his prime and 3-0 in his last three UFC fights with three finishes. Drakkar Klose has been tough to finish for a lot of guys, but Alvarez made it look easy. He’s been able to finish guys who are hard to put away, and he does it with style. His striking is solid, his grappling is what put him on the map, and he’s on the perfect trajectory to enter the top of the division.
In terms of paths to victory, the only way Luque can win this fight is via flash knockout or locking up an arm choke. Given Alvarez’s grappling acumen, it’s hard to see him get caught, especially when he should be the guy pushing forward and landing the better strikes. It almost seems like he’s ahead of the curve in terms of current competition, and it would be a complete shock if he loses this fight.
Deiveson Figueiredo
3.35
1.34
Montel Jackson
While the odds are far apart, Deiveson Figueiredo’s level of competition is miles ahead of Montel Jackson. While he’s 0-2 in his last two fights, they’ve come against legitimate title challengers, including a previous champion, in Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. Prior to that, Figueiredo ripped off three-straight wins against Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt, and Marlon Vera after moving up from flyweight. His reign as the flyweight champion is well documented, and he picked up right where he left off at bantamweight. He’s a good striker, with plenty of power, but his wrestling and grappling is what’s made him even more dangerous. He has all the tools to rip off the massive upset.
While the competition doesn’t scream title challenger, Jackson has been dominant in the UFC. Since his loss to Brett Johns in 2020, he’s ripped off six-straight wins and earned two performance bonuses in the process. His technical striking is elite, and his ability to time his shots allows him to pull off highlight-reel finishes. Will he be able to catch Figueiredo? Many have tried, but no one has succeeded. His only two knockout losses are via knee injury and doctor stoppage due to an eye injury.
Both fighters have solid paths to victory. For Figueiredo, make this fight dirty, changing levels, and landing solid power shots could lead to him dominating three rounds and finding a way to finish later in the fight. These odds seem far too wide based on both fighters skill sets and experience, but if Jackson looks the part, we could be in for a massive finish from a future title challenger.
Charles Oliveira
1.98
1.84
Mateusz Gamrot
The best way to beat Charles Oliveira is to completely knock him out or have good wrestling with solid top position. While Mateusz Gamrot has good takedowns, he’s always struggled with holding people down. When you add in Oliveira’s grappling skill, this seems like a tough spot for Gamrot.
Oliveira is coming off a tough loss to Ilia Topuria, but that could be the best fighter in the world right now. He dominated Michael Chandler, and lost a close fight to Tsarukyan. If that fight goes five rounds, there’s a good chance we see Oliveira get his hand raise. Prior to that, it was Islam Makhachev. Overall, he’s 7-3 in his last 10 with those three losses. While MMA math isn’t always the best determinant, you could say, with confidence, Gamrot loses to all three of those fighters as well.
Gamrot’s best path to victory is avoid the distance striking with Oliveira’s improved boxing, and try to make it a pure wrestling match. Similar to Tsarukyan, you have to be able to get him down and keep him there. Outside of that, he’s dangerous everywhere. Gamrot doesn’t carry much striking power, and his striking hasn’t always looked the best. Against Dan Hooker, a pure striker with some solid grappling, Gamrot lost via split decision because he wasn’t able to keep him down or compete on the feet. Similarly, Oliveira is the much better boxer and pure grappler, which nulifies all of Gamrot’s strengths. If this fight stays standing, it’s hard to see Oliveira lose the back-and-forth on the feet. If Oliveira avoids staying in bottom position on the ground, it seems almost certain he has the best chance to win the fight.
UFC RIO BEST BETS
Joel Alvarez to Finish / Valter Walker ML Parlay @ 1.85 (1.5 Units)
As mentioned, I’m not sure how Luque got this fight, but it’s hard to see any real path to victory outside of a massive, lucky shot. Valter Walker is simply better than Mo Usman. Over three rounds, he should be able to do enough to take all three rounds, especially if he’s able to grapple.
Charles Oliveira ML @ 1.89
These lines have been close all week, but Charles Oliveira is finally getting someone where we don’t have to worry about the knockout power. In those fights, not only does he tend to do well, but this is one where Gamrot’s offensive skills work well with Oliveira’s strong grappling. Let’s take a shot on the biggest fan favorite on the card at a competitive price.
Valter Walker to Win by Submission @ 2.80 (0.5 Units)
Walker has proven to be an increasingly dangerous fighter, and if he can consistently get Usman to the ground, it’s hard to see Usman avoiding all the submission attempts from Walker.
Lacerda / Polastri / Petrino / Ramos / Jackson @ 4.69 (0.25 Units)
We missed the last big parlay by a terrible judging call and a misstep on my part in picking Chiasson. In this case, we’re riding some Brazilian energy as Jackson enters the next level of UFC talent against a potentially injured Figueiredo.
UFC Rio should be an exciting card with plenty of Brazilian talent in action. The Brazilian crowd should bring incredible energy all night long, which should make the viewing experience that much better. On top of everything, getting a Charles Oliveira main event in Brazil is something the MMA community will love. After a profitable UFC 320, let’s see if we can come away with some profit at UFC Rio.
