UFC Vegas 114 could have been a massive day for us. Even though we came away with +1.05 Units of profit, Asplund came close to finishing in the first round, and Lemos stole moments in the fight and was likely a few defended takedowns away from a win. What could have been a three-plus unit swing, we take a modest profit to improve our total to -3.635 Units on the year. It’s nice to get back in the win column, and we need to bring our best for UFC London to turn things around.
UFC London features a great main event. We’re getting a championship-level fight in Movsar Evloev against Lerone Murphy. Both guys are hungry for a UFC title shot, but the UFC is putting them through the wringer to determine who deserves it the most. In the co-main event, English fans get top prospect Luke Riley against an exciting striker, Michael Aswell.
The fights are exciting across the board, and the London crowd should make this a fun atmosphere for the fighters and fans watching from home. Let’s take a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC London best bets.
UFC London Main Card Breakdown
Kurtis Campbell
1.43
2.90
Danny Silva
Kurtis Campbell is another exciting fighter for the hometown crowd. He’s 8-0 at 23 years old, and won his Dana White’s Contender Series fight in the first round. He moves well on his feet, sees strikes well, and has good timing. We saw his grappling ability on the show, but he was able to mix it up well, too. He looks very comfortable, and his confidence is through the roof. This will be his UFC debut, and it will be a tough test against Danny Silva.
Silva is a big underdog in this fight, but he’s going to bring the action to Campbell. Even though he lost to Kevin Vallejos last time out, the loss is ageing well with every passing Vallejos fight. He was not only about to take Vallejos’ best strikes, but he was countering and landing some of his own combinations. He made the fight close and never gave up. Before that, he won his Contender Series fight and was 2-0 to start his UFC career. He’s a sneaky good fighter and tough as nails, and this could be an absolute banger if he brings the fight to Campbell.
It’s always hard to gauge how good fighters can look against much lesser competition. While both guys have strong showings on the Contender Series, it’s not a great reflection on how they’ll do against tougher competition in the UFC. Silva should walk Campbell down and look to keep the fight in boxing range, while Campbell will want to maintain a safe distance to land an array of strikes and keep the takedown threat available. This fight smells a little like the more experienced fighter being a big underdog, but there is a technical difference here, and it will come down to seeing if Silva can make this a dog fight.
Roman Dolidze
4.30
1.23
Christian Leroy Duncan
It feels like Roman Dolidze has been struggling for a little while, but he’s actually 3-1 in his last four UFC fights, losing to Anthony Hernandez via submission last time out. Before that, he beat Marvin Vettori and Anthony Smith via decision, and Kevin Holland due to injury. His next loss was a majority decision loss to Nassourdine Imamov, which is ageing well. He is primarily a grappler with improving striking, but he tends to focus on control and takedowns to win rounds. Any time he’s unable to utilise those skills, it always looks worse than it is.
The same thing could happen against a surging Christian Leroy Duncan. After getting schooled by Gregory Rodrigues, Duncan has ripped off three straight wins. He fights with length, works well in the clinch, and does a good job of keeping the fight standing. His last two wins were big finishes, which were both examples of Duncan fighting to his strengths. He’s just 6-2 in the UFC, but his experience is adding up, and he’s becoming a dangerous fighter.
If Duncan can keep this fight standing, it feels like he has the edge everywhere. He should be able to land the better shots, work well in the clinch, and avoid the bottom position on the ground. Dolidze isn’t a massive finisher, either, but he grinds hard and finds ways to control the fight when he can. He needs to get inside the reach of Duncan and make this dirty. If he’s able to avoid the big shots and find ways to get Duncan to the ground, he could be a live underdog as the fight goes on.
Iwo Baraniewski
1.17
5.25
Austen Lane
Iwo Baraniewski is getting one of the most ridiculous showcase spots in recent memory. Not only is he on the main card, but he’s taking on Austen Lane, a fighter with a questionable chin moving from heavyweight to light heavyweight. Baraniewski is a power boxer who pushes the pace early in the fight. He’s on a five-fight first-round finishing streak dating back to his Bellator days. He is the definition of a volume fighter, landing 14.31 strikes per minute and maintaining a 68% striking accuracy. While he, too, gets hit at 17.61 strikes per minute, this fight has all the makings of that number tanking when this one’s over.
Austen Lane moving down to light heavyweight is one of the most questionable decisions we’ve seen recently. He was taking far too much damage at heavyweight, and his chin paid the price. His best win was against a striker who was a fish out of water on the ground. The biggest concern with him moving down is how it will help with not taking major damage on the feet? It’s well known that his chin has deteriorated, but the weight cut should make it war worse to deal with the power and speed coming the other way.
It’s more surprising that Lane is still in the UFC, let alone on the next card on the main event slate. While the UFC is hoping for a classic heavyweight battle, there is a massive lack of talent in the division. Baraniewski has a chance to jump the ranks if he can pull off a massive finish.
Michael Page
1.54
2.54
Sam Patterson
Is Michael Page being disrespected in this fight? From a UFC perspective, he definitely is. He’s 3-1 in the UFC with a close decision loss to Ian Garry. To go from beating Jared Cannonier to fighting Sam Patterson is a hard pill to swallow. He’s an incredibly technical fighter, but takes a lot of criticism for his slower pace and lack of volume. The fact of the matter is, he’s defensively sound and lands at a high clip. It’s a dying art in combat sports, but plenty of fighters made careers out of a similar style, like Israel Adesanya and Floyd Mayweather in boxing. The biggest hole in Page’s game is the grappling. Anyone who can’t stand with him finds ways to get it to the ground and take over with control time, and that could be a problem against Patterson.
Patterson may not be a big name, but he’s the total package. He’s able to land in spurts and has a well-rounded game. After losing his debut after coming in from Dana White’s Contender Series, Patterson is riding a four-fight first-round finishing streak. He has two finishes on the feet and two submissions. He hasn’t made it to a decision since 2021, which goes hand-in-hand with the UFC’s expectations. It’s obvious the UFC appreciate his style, and now he gets his toughest test with Page.
It will be interesting to see if Patterson tries to enter a striking battle or if he goes right to the grappling. Page’s 66% takedown defence is a massive problem. His striking is elite with 60% striking accuracy and 57% defence, but the grappling numbers leave a lot to be desired. Patterson should go into this fight knowing he should have a grappling advantage and look for takedowns at any opportunity. Page has never been submitted, but it’s the perfect path to victory for Patterson. Despite the line, we could be seeing an underdog make an impressive showing against a long-standing elite fighter.
Luke Riley
1.40
3.05
Michael Aswell
Luke Riley is one of the more exciting prospects coming out of England. He’s 12-0 so far in his young career, and his skills are impressive for his age. He can throw strikes for power and is on a three-fight finishing streak. He is heavily dependent on the big heavy shots, but lacks the volume to create massive exchanges of strikes. Paddy Pimblett has talked about just how good Riley is in the gym. He was a Cage Warriors standout and is now getting a co-main spot on a hometown card. He’s exciting, oozes potential, but is he worth the big number?
Michael Aswell is a solid boxer. He comes from the same camp as Joshua Van, so you know he has solid volume and pressure. His main problem is that he also takes shots, and that could be a problem in this fight. At the same time, he hasn’t been incredibly successful in the UFC. His last fight was a first-round finish against an injured fighter, and he’s 1-2 with a decision and split decision win. The good news is his UFC losses are against solid competition, but the bad news is he’s going into one of his toughest fights to date.
This is a solid battle between a precision striker and a high-volume fighter. The line suggests that Riley should finish the fight, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see this fight last much longer than people think. With the lack of volume from Riley, Aswell could control this fight with volume and pressure. If he comes in with solid defence, it could be tough for Riley to find the big finishing strike. While it looks like a showcase spot for Riley, this could be more competitive than the betting line suggests.
Movsar Evloev
1.40
3.00
Lerone Murphy
Every UFC fan is just hoping Movsar Evloev makes the walk to the cage. He’s been notorious for pulling out of fights, but his skills are unquestionable. He has an elite mix of wrestling and boxing. His ability to control the fight has always been good, and only against Aljamain Sterling did we see him give up some spots of top control. He’s 19-0, 9-0 in the UFC, with wins over Sterling, Arnold Allen, Diego Lopes, and Dan Ige. If he were more active, a title shot would have been in his future without question. Given his lack of fights, the UFC is forcing him to earn his title shot, this time, against Lerone Murphy.
Murphy is another fighter who has been forced to earn his keep. He, too, is 9-0 in the UFC with one draw, and he’s 17-0-1 overall. While he received massive criticism for his approach to the Josh Emmett fight, he absolutely destroyed Aaron Pico last time out and earned the good graces of the fans. He landed a gorgeous spinning back elbow to completely flatline Pico.
His technical striking is one of the best in the division, but his defensive style isn’t sitting well with mainstream fans. Regardless of public opinion, Murphy is a championship-level fighter who finds ways to win.
The big difference here is the wrestling and grappling. Evloev averages 4.67 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Murphy’s 51% takedown defense. That is a glaring hole going into this fight. Murphy has been taken down by seven of his nine opponents, and we’re talking about one of the best pressure fighters in the division. Murphy thrives in technical striking bouts where his opponents give him space and wait to pick their shots, but Evloev has incredible pace and pressure, which could also work in his favour. Even with the big number, it’s hard to think that Murphy will solve his wrestling and grappling woes against an elite fighter like Evloev.
UFC London Best Bets
- 2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
- 2026 Record: 17-28, -3.635 Units
(coming soon…)
UFC London has plenty of action for the hometown crowd. From title challenger Lerone Murphy to high-level prospects like Luke Riley, the London crowd should be fired up all night. When the London crowd gets going, it’s the perfect atmosphere for exciting fights. Expect a fun night with plenty of action. Check out our main card breakdown and best bets for UFC London on SlotsFighter.com.
We’re coming off what could have been a massive weekend, so let’s see if we can make it happen this week. Keep it locked to SlotsFighter to get all the best bets for UFC cards, and don’t forget to follow SlotsFighter and SOOKY MMA on Instagram.
