We’ve got some serious work to do after UFC Houston. Our bets were stunted by lackluster performances and unpredictable upsets. We ended up down -2.65 Units on the night, for a total of -1.64 Units so far this year, but we’ve come back in the past and plan to do that at UFC Mexico City.
While there’s a chance the fights get moved or canceled, for now, it looks like the UFC is still scheduled to happen as planned. Brandon Moreno headlines the main card against a surprising, short notice fighter in Lone’er Kavanagh. While Kavanagh was knocked out brutally in his last fight, he’s chosen to step up against a longtime division contender. This is a massive opportunity for the young fighter, but it will be a massive jump in competition.
The rest of the card features plenty of exciting Mexican fighters with a drive to finish the fight. Let’s take a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Mexico best best.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Santiago Luna
1.17
5.25
Angel Pacheco
Santiago Luna is going to be a star. He’s exactly what the UFC is looking for and continues to push an incredible pace. If you land something, he’s coming right back with something else. Luna has yet to go to a third round and always looks for a finish. His speed should be a massive difference maker here, along with his power. He’s just 21 years old but looks every bit of a UFC mainstay for years to come.
Tuff N Uff 144: Santiago Luna vs Desmond Manabat | May 22, 2025
Angel Pacheco has good combinations, but the footwork will need to be better against an athlete like Luna. Pacheco lost his last two and is looking for his first UFC win. The best thing for Pacheco is that he has yet to be finished, but his last win was in 2022, and he’s only fought twice since then.
This will either be his first knockout loss or an absolute banger of a fight to kick off the main card. Pacheco’s best chance is to weather the storm, avoid the big shots, and drag Luna into deep waters. Having never been to a third round, there’s a chance Luna struggles in the second half of the fight. If he can survive, Pacheco’s durability and combinations could help him secure a victory. However, that is far tougher than it sounds, and the first round should be all Luna until he finds a finish.
Imanol Rodríguez
1.24
4.20
Kevin Borjas
The biggest issue with this fight is reviewing Kevin Borjas’ last fight. He looked like a fish out of water against Sumudaerji, landing less than 20 strikes over three rounds. He’s 1-3 in the UFC after winning on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2023. He lost his debut to the current champion Joshua Van, but then got finished in his second fight before winning a decision against Ronaldo Rodriguez. He’s shown an ability to make it a dog fight in the past, but this will be a battle of athleticism that will be difficult to win.
Imanol Rodriguez is another massive prospect with an exciting path. He lost a decision on the Ultimate Fighter, but hasn’t lost professionally at 6-0. He’s finished every fight in the second round or earlier, and now gets Borjas for his UFC debut. He has good boxing, but his takedowns look good, and he has underrated grappling. Based on this matchup, it looks like the UFC is going out of its way to try to promote him, especially after Borjas’ last performance.
Rodriguez looks like he can dominate this fight anywhere. While Borjas has a slight experience edge, Rodriguez’s arsenal looks primed for a big showing. Even if he doesn’t get the exciting first-round finish, his volume, athleticism, and ability to win the fight anywhere should be too much. Borjas’ best chance in this fight is to fight on the outside, stick and move, and avoid anything powerful. If he can take this into the later rounds, he could have the durability and cardio to take over the fight, but that will be difficult given Rodriguez’s style and pace early in the fight.
Edgar Chairez
1.30
3.60
Felipe Bunes
Edgar Chairez is one of the more exciting flyweights in the division. His two UFC losses are respectable, especially against Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira, and he’s always pushing a pace with versatile strikes. Clean elbows, good clinch work, and solid boxing. We saw his BJJ skills on display last time out, when he submitted CJ Vergara via rear-naked choke. He’s a dangerous fighter everywhere, and he’s proven in a short period that he belongs at the top of the flyweight division.
Can Felipe Bunes deal with the offensive onslaught? We’ve seen him get boxed up in the past, but he’s still a dangerous grappler who continues to look for submissions. Before losing his last fight to Rafael Estevam, Bunes submitted Jose Johnson via armbar. The real question is if it’s enough to deal with Chairez’s overall skill.
With the way Chairez has proven his ability anywhere the fight goes, it’s hard to see Bunes mustering up any offense. His striking defense is subpar, and he hasn’t been able to find much of a footing in stand up battles. His best path to victory is getting the fight to the ground, but Chairez has proven to hold his own there as well. This looks like a solid showcase spot for Chairez to prove why he’s one of the best in the division.
Daniel Zellhuber
1.20
4.80
King Green
Daniel Zellhuber is in what people call a “buy-low” spot. He was a massive favorite against Michael Johnson but came up short last time out. He’s another fighter who likes to fight long and use his boxing, but Johnson’s volume and ability to land the better shots left Zellhuber without any answers. This time around, Zellhuber gets another tough veteran in King Green, but he should do much better in this one.
King Green is on the tail end of his career, but he’s still getting main card fights against good prospects. Last time out, he won a split decision against Lance Gibson Jr., but there were plenty of red flags for Green in that fight as well. He’s always kept his hands low, but he’s starting to slow down, and the volume just isn’t there anymore.
The big question mark is Zellhuber’s ability to deal with crafty veterans. He was an even longer favorite last time out, but was unable to keep up with Johnson’s boxing. This time, he’s in a similar spot, against a less impressive veteran, but he will need to find his footing early to shake off any cobwebs from his previous performance. He’s durable, fights long, and can dictate the pace once he’s confident. Green will keep his hands low and throw counters, but as long as Zellhuber continues to use footwork and finds ways to lead with the jab and follow it up, along with using kicks to set things up, he should be able to get back in the win column.
Marlon Vera
3.35
1.34
David Martinez
Does Marlon Vera have anything left in the tank? After some memorable fights and a championship run, Vera hasn’t seemed like his old self. While he still beats most of the division, his drive to be one of the best seems to be gone. He’s lost his last three, all by decision, and could have won his last fight against Aiemann Zahabi if he turned it up a bit. His last win was Pedro Munhoz in 2023, and this will be another tough fight against a rising prospect.
David Martinez is climbing the ranks fast. His only loss was a split decision on the regional scene in 2021, but he’s ripped off nine straight wins since then. He was the Combat Global champion before his opportunity on Dana White’s Contender Series, and even in a decision win, he impressed enough to earn the UFC contract. After knocking out Saimon Oliveira in his UFC debut, he got Rob Font in just his second UFC fight. He won a hard-fought boxing match via decision and now gets another good striker in his third UFC fight.
This betting line seems so off, but it comes down to which version of Vera are we going to get. If he fights long, uses his kicks, and finds ways to land more volume, this would be a sneaky underdog pick. Martinez will push forward and use his boxing to land big damage, but Vera has yet to be finished, and this fight will come down to who has the better cardio and output in the second half of the fight. If Martinez looks to tire at all, Vera, as a live underdog spot is ripe for the picking.
Brandon Moreno
1.48
2.70
Lone’er Kavanagh
This is one of the weirdest bookings in recent memory. Brandon Moreno did struggle in his previous fight against Tatsuro Taira, but this is a massive step down in competition. Lone’er Kavanagh is good, but he was just removed from the rankings altogether and lost his most recent fight to Charles Johnson via knockout.
With the UFC flyweight division in need of a facelift with new talent, Kavanagh is getting a massive opportunity against a top-five fighter, on short notice, after getting brutally finished last time out. Kavanagh was undefeated before that, and it’s his mix of wrestling and pressure that made him dangerous in previous fights. He needs to do the same thing against Moreno. Changing levels, forcing the wrestling exchanges, and finding ways to control Moreno is his best path to victory.
Moreno is a good striker from range, is always on his toes, and has elite cardiovascular endurance. His durability keeps him in every fight, and his volume is consistent over five rounds. With Kavanagh showing signs of slowing down in later rounds, this looks like a tailor-made fight for Moreno. He has better cardio, likely a stronger chin, and his boxing has always been championship-level. Kavanagh is going to be a major threat in the UFC, but this seems like too much, too fast.
UFC Mexico City Best Bets
2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
2026 Record: 7-8, +1.01 Units
(All bets 1 Unit Unless Specified)
Santiago Luna by KO @ 2.30
Luna is only 21 years old, but the power and technical skill are enough to lay a massive shot on Pacheco. The defense is questionable on the Pacheco side, and he will eat plenty of shots in this fight. It makes sense that this could be a firefight, with Luna landing big shots to end it before the judges’ scorecards.
Edgar Chairez to Finish @ 1.86
Chairez has lost to solid competition in the UFC, and now he gets Buna, who is primarily a grappler, but Chairez can compete in that area as well. He’s a high-volume striker with good takedowns and grappling. He’s been primarily a submission artist in the past, but his volume and power against a grappler open the door to a standing finish as well.
There’s no question, UFC Mexico City has some questionable fights. The UFC could be looking to cut several fighters on this card when it’s all said and done, but they get one more chance to make good on their UFC contract. Barring massive upsets, this should be a showcase spot for several fighters, but it will be fun nonetheless. Check out our main card breakdown and best bets for UFC Houston on SlotsFighter.com. We’re just getting started in 2026. Keep it locked to SlotsFighter to get all the best bets for UFC cards, and don’t forget to follow SlotsFighter and SOOKY MMA on Instagram.
