UFC 312 isn’t getting the hype it deserves but those tend to be the better cards. Regarding MMA, having limited expectations and enjoying the show is always better. This is a card where the matchmaking deserves a lot of credit too. While UFC 312 may not have household names, the matchups make this card underrated.
Looking at the prelims, Quillan Salkilld and Anshu Jubli will kick off the card in style. Indian and Australian fans will be glued for the opening fight with two hometown prospects locking horns. Salkilld is the biggest favorite on the card and should live up to the hype,
Cong Wang has some ground to cover after losing as a massive favorite against Gabriella Fernandes. Bruna Brasil trains with the Fighting Nerds and brings strong coaching and experience to this one. While the line isn’t as wide as last time, Brasil to Win at 3.33 could have some value in WMMA.
Jack Jenkins deserves your attention in this fight. Jenkins to Win is 2.90, which seems far too wide in a fight where he should stand his ground on the feet and will have the crowd behind him. He has solid cardio and should be able to meet Santos in the middle if this turns into a slugfest. His only loss was due to injury against Chepe Mariscal, which is a tough fight for anyone.
Cody Steele and Rongzhu should be a banger. Rongzhu looks better since his first UFC stint where he had weight-cutting problems. He lost his last fight via doctor stoppage but won the Road to UFC before that. Cody Steele at 1.44 could be a good parlay builder with his strong wrestling and big strikes. If the fight doesn’t end early, he has all the tools to grind out a decision.
Let’s break down the main card with some bets to consider.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland
This might be the most surprising betting line on the card, but it’s a testament to how good Dricus Du Plessis has been over his last few fights. He might not excel in any aspect of the sport, but he knows how to win and stays out of dangerous spots. Beating Robert Whittaker, Israel Adesanya, and Strickland is no easy feat.
Strickland waited for this fight. He lost to Du Plessis via split decision in the first fight then beat Paulo Costa by split decision to earn a second chance against DDP. Has Strickland done enough to be the better man this time around? His style allows him to pressure fighters, but that’s where Du Plessis shined in the first fight. He met Strickland in the middle and found different ways to steal the rounds. It’s hard to see this fight go any differently, but the value is on Strickland to Win at 2.80.
Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez
This is a personal favorite on the card. Zhang Weili is one of the best female fighters over the last decade but Tatiana Suarez might be the most talked about prospect at that same time. Injuries and bad luck are the only reasons Suarez hasn’t become a top dog in the UFC.
This fight will come down to the wrestling. If Weili can avoid the takedowns and keep the fight standing, she has the striking to keep this fight competitive and find ways to win the rounds. The thing about Suarez is the numbers suggest she’s a championship-caliber fighter. The problem here is she’s never gone fight rounds, whereas Weili has been there countless times.
If you’re on the Weili side, the best betting strategy here is to live bet. Suarez has all the tools to keep this fight close early, which will only improve the number on Weili. Suarez at plus money would be the way to go, but this fight is even on the betting lines.
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira
The urge to bet Justin Tafa will be there for most. He’s exciting, throws big shots, and will be looking for the killer blow. The problem here is Teixeira is a solid kickboxer, a much bigger fighter, and should have the edge as the fight progresses.
If you’re eager to bet on Tafa, especially based on the UFC experience and fighting at home, Tafa to win in Round 1 at 4.00 is the best look. Most of his finishes have come in the first round and Teixeira ate 19 significant strikes in under two minutes on Dana White’s Contender Series before finding the finishing blow.
Both fighters have first-round finishes, but there isn’t much value for the Fight to end in Round 1 at 1.90. Texeira also has a questionable record heading into the UFC and ate too many shots on DWCS. For those reasons, all the value is on the Tafa side.
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Jimmy Crute is getting an opportunity to re-write his UFC legacy. Rodolfo Bellato is coming in on short notice, heading into enemy territory, and taking on a guy with real UFC experience. Who is the favorite? Bellato at 1.68.
In Bellato’s defense, he was the LFA champion heading into the UFC and is 2-0 with two finishes between DWCS and the UFC. At the same time, Crute’s only losses are against top-level UFC fighters including Misha Cirkunov, Anthony Smith, Jamahal Hill, and Alonzo Menifield.
Crute to Win at 2.36 looks like a solid value play. He’s had a full camp, has talked about the time away helping him mentally and physically, and gets to fight at home. Bellato is hittable and has shown desperate takedowns in his previous two fights. Crute should be able to find success on the feet and even sneak in a submission if Bellato leaves an opening. Fight Not to Go the Distance at 1.40 is also a solid parlay piece given both guys’ durability and ability to find a finish.
Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado
This has the potential to be the best fight on the card. Jake Matthews has been around the UFC for a long time and has solid experience for his age. While he never moved into the next echelon of fighters, he’s done a great job finding ways to win at the highest level of MMA.
One of the biggest issues with Matthews’ development is he never explored the option of going to a bigger gym. Usually, as fighters progress and move up the UFC ladder, they find gyms with high-level training partners and experienced UFC coaches. Matthews has been a family man from the start, working with his father and staying in Australia.
Francisco Prado has the opportunity to play spoiler in Sydney. He has powerful strikes and his durability is off the charts. This fight comes down to a game plan. If Matthews can mix it up and threaten the takedowns, he has a better chance of finding different ways to win. If this is a slugfest, it’s anyone’s fight. Prado has been able to land on the longer fighter before and Matthews has been rocked in the past.
From a value perspective, it’s difficult to side with Matthews when the price is gameplan dependent. For how much he likes to strike, and how good Prado has been on the feet, it’s hard to ignore Prado to Win at 2.95.
The more you dive into UFC 312, the more you realize that this card has plenty of potential and could turn a few fighters into household names. There is also some betting value given how chalky some favorites are. If you’re building parlays, tread carefully. If you like the underdogs, use the first round as a scouting report and pull the trigger live.
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