After a break from UFC cards last weekend, we’re up and running again with UFC Paris.
On the last UFC card, UFC Shanghai, several underdogs emerged victorious. While we were down 0.47 units on the day, I mentioned that betting Walker live if he survives the first round would be a solid look, and he won! If you took that live bet, nice win.
We enter UFC Paris still up +9.875U and will continue to find the best betting spots on every UFC card.
UFC Paris features top talent out of France, with plenty of other European fighters looking to make a splash in the UFC. The preliminary fights are much better than recent UFC cards because it’s hard to find a definitive list for the main event. Every site has a different group of fights for the main card, but we’ll use the UFC’s official website.
Here’s a look at the UFC Paris main card, and be sure to check back later in the week for our best bets.
UFC PARIS BREAKDOWN
Patricio Pitbull
2.85
1.44
Losene Keita
Patricio Pitbull’s UFC debut didn’t go as planned, but he put on a veteran performance against Dan Ige last time out. This time, he gets UFC newcomer and top European prospect, Losene Keita.
Keita is a highly-touted newcomer for a reason. He’s 16-1, with his only loss coming via injury, and is the Oktagon double-champ at featherweight and lightweight. He’s a powerful striker with a stalking style, and his solid footwork allows him to avoid takedowns. He’s shown an ability to avoid dangerous spots on the ground and should be able to do damage on the feet.
Pitbull will need to start hot and mix it up well. If he just stands in front waiting for counters, Keita will surely find ways to land big strikes. Dictating pace, changing levels, and finding ways to avoid the big power punches is the only chance Pitbull has of pulling off the upset.
Axel Sola
1.74
2.15
Rhys McKee
Axel Sola is one of the bigger French prospects making his UFC debut in Paris, and he’s being showcased on the main card for a reason. He’s currently the Ares FC lightweight champion and has four title defenses under his belt. He’s 10-0-1 with solid amateur and professional experience, and his ability to mix it up will be key in this fight. He has proven he can look for a finish or put up a great fight for three rounds, which will be important against his opponent. If he can land big and mix in some grappling early on, it helps him build confidence early while also scoring points with the judges.
Rhys McKee was a standout in Cage Warriors, but is 1-4 in the UFC. When you’re fighting guys like Khamzat Chimaev early in your career, it’s easy to see why. After fighting twice in two years, McKee won his last fight via doctor stoppage early in 2025 and will now get to fight in Europe against a big-name prospect. McKee has been public about struggling to find an opponent and flying under the radar as a fighter on this card. It seems like he prefers it that way and can focus on securing his second consecutive UFC win.
The betting line suggests this fight will be close, and McKee could have a solid size advantage as a natural welterweight. McKee is also tough and has been able to take opponents into deep waters. It’ll be interesting to see if Sola can weather that storm and find ways to land his own big shots. There’s a good chance this is an absolute war that ends in a close three-round decision.
Bolaji Oki
2.14
1.74
Mason Jones
Bolaji Oki was another highly-touted European prospect entering Dana White’s Contender Series and showed his power with a first-round finish. While he was finishing people with ease, heading into the UFC, he’s 2-1 with two decision wins and a guillotine loss to Chris Duncan. The loss is aging well, but two decisions, one being a split, isn’t exactly what the UFC hoped for from the Belgian.
Things don’t get any easier for Oki as he now takes on Mason Jones in what should be an absolute slugfest. Jones has only two losses in his career, both in the UFC, to Mike Davis and L’udovit Klein. Very respectable, especially for a fighter who was just getting his feet wet in the UFC. He went back to Cage Warriors, destroyed the competition, then made his way back to the UFC against Jeremy Stephens last time out. He won via decision but looked dominant.
While the line is close for this one, it’s hard to go against Jones. He’s approaching his prime in his second UFC stint, while Oki has a much steeper hill to climb as he transitions to the UFC level. Not only has Jones fought tougher competition, but his only two losses are against solid UFC veterans. Oki’s best chance to take this fight over is to start fast and do plenty of damage early. If he doesn’t, Jones should be the more well-rounded fighter, with good cardio, and would take a massive showing from Oki to pull off the victory.
Modestas Bukauskas
1.28
3.80
Paul Craig
Paul Craig’s career has been all over the place for the last three years. He’s 2-5 but hasn’t won a fight since 2023 against Andre Muniz. In his last bout, it looked like he was doing well against Rodolfo Bellato, but the fight was deemed a no contest after a controversial exchange on the ground. That was back in June, and now he gets a rising veteran who is finding his footing in the UFC after a major injury.
Nobody can forget Modestas Bukauskas’ injury against Khalil Rountree. It was a side kick to the knee which actually got him released from the UFC. He went 2-0 in Cage Warriors, winning the light heavyweight title, and returned to the UFC. Since then, he’s 5-1, losing only to Vitor Petrino via strikes, and has already fought twice in 2025. He’s more active now, and looks ready to rise up the UFC ranks at just 31 years old.
If Bukauskas can avoid the ground, it’s hard to see him lose the striking battle. He’s a solid kickboxer and hasn’t been submitted since 2016. Craig will force the pressure and look to his strikes to get in the clinch and find a takedown. If he can’t, it’s hard to find a path to victory for him, unless he weathers the early storm and takes over as the fight goes on. We’ve seen crazy finishes like that in the past from Craig, but it all comes down to if he still has it in him.
Benoit Saint-Denis
2.64
1.50
Mauricio Ruffy
This fight reminds me of one of those recently biased fights where one guy looks like a world beater, and the other looks to be at the tail end of his career. Then, you compare the quality of opponent, and you realize Benoit Saint-Denis’ two bad losses are against Renato Moicano and Dustin Poirier. Outside of those two losses, he’s been finishing everyone since 2022. He’s 5-2 in the UFC over that span, and gets another rising star in Mauricio Ruffy.
Ruffy is another Fighting Nerds star ready to take the next step in his UFC career. When you look at his opponents, though, the UFC seems to be picking the right guys for his rise. All three of his wins are against guys who love to stand and bang, something Ruffy excels in with his solid footwork, creativity, and power.
Is Saint-Denis done? This fight all comes down to what version of him we’re going to get. He’s been a little flat-footed in the past, but during his rise, it worked. In his last fight against Kyle Prepolec, it was actually surprising to see it last so long. He was able to lock up the submission in round two, but in terms of short notice and quality of opponent, that was a very winnable fight. If he takes his time against Ruffy, it could be another tough night in the office for Saint-Denis.
Caio Borralho
1.80
2.05
Nassourdine Imavov
The UFC middleweight division is heating up and there are two solid contenders headlining this card, Caio Borralho is looking more like a champion every time we see him fight. He’s 17-1 and hasn’t lost in the UFC. He’s a good-sized middleweight and his consistent improvement has him in the UFC title picture already.
Nassourdine Imavov isn’t undefeated in the UFC, but his level of competition is insane. He has already fought two previous champions and multiple ranked fighters. His only losses are a close decision to Phil Hawes and Sean Strickland. He has an interesting style of French kickboxing and muay thai, mixed in with his Russian roots of wrestling. We’ve seen him mix it up well, and this will be the perfect fight to showcase those skills.
Borralho has proven to be a smart fighter and his gameplans have proven to be his ticket to solid wins in the UFC. Both fighters are so well-rounded that it’s hard to separate them. Borralho has solid cardio, which could outwork Imavov, and his ability to exploit his opponents weaknesses is his biggest strength. If he can avoid the clinch strikes and bottom position on the ground, he should make this a tough fight for Imavov.
UFC PARIS BEST BETS
Fernandes / Ruffy @ 2.54
Kaue Fernandes is taking on UFC newcomer Harry Hardwick on short notice, and he should be the more technical fighter. As long as he avoids the randomness, he has a good chance of securing the victory.
Benoit Saint-Denis is very vulnerable, and his defensive striking has often put him in dangerous spots in the past. Ruffy will find his spots and attack with volume when he smells blood. This is a bad matchup.
Hughes / Bukauskas / Sy Parlay @ 2.02
Sam Hughes is the much tougher fighter here and should have enough cage IQ to avoid anything offensive from Shauna Bannon.
Bukauskas is a solid technical kickboxer and has improved tremendously. Craig, on the other hand, is takedown or bust in this fight. Based on his recent fights, Bukauskas should win the stand-up battle to score with the judges.
Oumar Sy is being paired against a perfect fighter who can’t defend takedowns, Brendson Ribeiro. If Sy can keep him down, he should be able to find a finish.
Patterson / Tavares Parlay @ 2.24 (0.5 Units)
Sam Patterson fights long and uses his length well. That could pose problems for Trey Waters, who likes to fight in close range.
Brad Tavares has fought some of the best fighters in the UFC. This is a big step down, but he should be able to do enough to seal the victory.
Sy to Finish / Keita ML @ 2.43 (0.25 Units)
Of every fighter on this card, Sy might have the most favourable matchup in terms of paths to victory. He should be scoring takedowns and could find a finish on the ground.
Losene Keita is a promising fighter and is a favorite against Patricio Pitbull. He has good pressure and solid takedown defense, which should be enough to take a decision victory if he can’t find a finish.
Rhys McKee to Win @ 2.14 (0.5 Units)
This is a solid number for Rhys McKee, who has finally found his footing in the UFC. Axel Sola is a solid addition to the UFC ranks, but McKee’s pressure over three rounds might be too much, too fast.
Robert Ruchala to Win @ 3.20 (0.25 Units)
William Gomis has been successful in the UFC, but he isn’t aggressive and is more of a technical fighter. Ruchala will put the pace on him, and his takedown offense could be the difference maker against Gomis.
UFC Paris is a solid card, top to bottom. There’s a solid mix of up-and-coming talent and well-known veterans looking to make the next leap in their UFC careers. The more impressive part is the UFC found ways to get some of the best European talent on the card, which bodes well for the local fans. There’s a slim chance this card disappoints, so be sure to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC Paris to get in on the action.
Long Shot Parlay:
Hughes / Tavares / Fernandes / Sy / Bukauskas / Ruffy @ 7.51 (0.15 Units)
These are the most confident picks on the card, and we’re gonna try to hit something big in Paris.
UFC Paris is a solid card, top to bottom. There’s a solid mix of up-and-coming talent and well-known veterans looking to make the next leap in their UFC careers. The more impressive part is the UFC found ways to get some of the best European talent on the card, which bodes well for the local fans. There’s a slim chance this card disappoints, so be sure to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC Paris to get in on the action.
