The UFC middleweight has been a testament to the unforgiving nature of MMA. Dricus du Plessis shook the foundation of the weight class when he beat Sean Strickland. The fight depicts how fans are divided in how they score the sport.
Du Plessis won on sheer pressure and control. Depending on how you value striking vs. grappling/wrestling, that decision could go either way. Fast forward to du Plessis’ title defense against Israel Adesanya, he, once again, proved his ability to win. He always finds a way and understands the chess match.
Strickland and Adesanya are popular fighters and carry a big following. This is not how most UFC fans saw this playing out. With Strickland getting his rematch at UFC 312, UFC Saudi Arabia features Israel Adesanya taking on the rising Russian from France, Nassourdine Imavov.
Adesanya has fought every big name in the division. For the first time in a long time, he gets a dangerous opponent in terms of ‘the hungry, younger guy’. This is one of the first gatekeeper fights we’ve seen for Adesanya.
Imavov is just 28 with plenty of UFC experience. Without all the clout, he’s quickly risen through the ranks with a 7-2 UFC record, winning three straight. Strickland was his last loss and he also had a no-contest against Chris Curtis.
At opposite ends of their UFC careers, both fighters are chasing the same goal.
Is Nassourdine Imavov the real deal?
If you’re a fan of French kickboxing, Imavov is this Dagestani hybrid who doesn’t get enough love. The majority decision against Phil Hawes was close, and Strickland was on his way to the title. Roman Dolidze, Jared Cannonier, and Brendan Allen are no walks in the park. He’s a proven prospect graduating to a contender. With a win over Adesanya, there isn’t a more suitable title challenger in the division outside of Khamzat Chimaev.
What Imavov lacks in power and elite cardio, he makes up for in precision and technique. He’s a creative striker with a sneaking background in wrestling. His 55% striking accuracy with his 58% striking defense against that level of competition is impressive. The 78% takedown accuracy could come into play. He has all the tools to win this fight, but that’s easier said than done.
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Adesanya vs. Imavov Breakdown
The big question is will Imavov change levels at all? When you look at the blueprint to beat Adesanya, it’s to get inside that kicking range and use heavy strikes or grappling to keep him off his game. Again, easier than done, but Strickland did it with strikes and du Plessis did it with grappling.
Imavov has good clinch work and Muay Thai in close range, but he has to get there. Whether he needs to use the wrestling remains to be seen, but it will be tough to get inside Adesanya’s kicking range and he struggles with landing big power shots. He was able to outwork Cannonier over four rounds, he finished Edmen Shahbazyan in the crucifix position and beat Ian Heinisch on the ground. He has never finished a fight in the UFC via submission.
Adesanya fights long and he can deal with strikers. In the past, Imamov tended to use his wrestling more defensively and chose to manage distance with his strikes. That’s also why so many of his fights are close. Against Adesanya, if the volume isn’t there, and you can’t close the distance, he will be able to dominate the range battle. With Imavov’s lack of striking power, it’s tough to see him getting the finish. If he wins via knockout on the feet, that would be a bigger sign of where Adesanya is at durability-wise instead of Imavov’s improved power.
This will be a technical kickboxing affair with Imavov having to make crucial decisions about where to take the fight. Adesanya to Win is 1.54 is steep, but stylistically, he seems like the right side. It’s a great parlay piece because you can always hedge before the fight starts with Imavov to win. Guaranteed profit. If at any point in the first round Imavov attempts a takedown, taking a live dog shot on Imavov makes a lot of sense too.
The UFC goes out of its way to make the most of the UFC Saudi Arabia cards and this is another stacked lineup. Magomedov against Page will be another technical battle and the winner should be another candidate for the UFC middleweight title picture. Catch the entire UFC Saudi Arabia card on Saturday, February 1. You don’t want to miss this one!
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