UFC Vegas 109 was a tough pill to swallow, but we’re back at it again for a massive UFC 319 card.
To recap, our bets should’ve hit, but we only go down by 1.5 units. Julius Walker had every opportunity to finish the fight but couldn’t, and Cody Brundage was arguably robbed of a decision win. With two tough losses at UFC Vegas 109, we’re still up +10.05 Units.
After two weeks of above-average cards, we get a stacked UFC 319 that will feature a much-anticipated title fight between Dricus Du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev. Aaron Pico makes his UFC debut, and Carlos Prates makes his UFC return.
Let’s take a look at the UFC 319 main card, and be sure to check back later in the week for our UFC 319 best bets.
UFC 319 MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Dricus Du Plessis
3.00
1.54
Khamzat Chimaev
Dricus Du Plessis is being underrated once again. You rarely see him as a favorite, but he continues to perform in the cage. He’s mounting impressive wins in the UFC, and now gets one of his toughest challenges yet in Chimaev. If he adds to Chimaev to his impressive list of victories, we could be talking about him as the pound-for-pound best.
Chimaev doesn’t fight often, but when he does, he makes a statement every time. Against Robert Whittaker, we saw how powerful and relentless he can be with his wrestling and submission attempts. As good as he looked, for some reason, it would be surprising to see him dominate Du Plessis in the same way.
The big question here is, can Chimaev get Du Plessis down and hold him there? If he can, this could be a short night, or one that depends on Du Plessis staying poised and getting back to his feet over and over again till the later rounds of the fight. Du Plessis’ best chance will come after weathering the onslaught and hoping Chimaev loses an edge as the fight progresses. If Du Plessis survives the first two rounds, do not be surprised if he pulls off another upset victory to retain the UFC middleweight title.
Lerone Murphy
2.54
1.54
Aaron Pico
Speaking of underrated fighters, this betting line is one of the more shocking ones at UFC 319. After beating Josh Emmett in a tactical five-round battle, Murphy gets UFC newcomer Aaron Pico. Murphy is 8-0 in the UFC and 16-0-1 overall. If there’s any underdog to consider, it’s Murphy.
Pico comes into the UFC from the PFL/Bellator ranks, but he’s just 13-4 overall. The big selling point for Pico is that he was always a solid wrestling prospect, improved his boxing in a big way, and is riding a massive win streak outside of a shoulder injury loss to Jeremy Kennedy. A major red flag for Pico is that he hasn’t been active, fighting just twice since 2022, but he won both fights via first-round ground and pound.
Murphy ate some pretty solid shots from Emmett. If he can eat those, it’s hard to see Pico knocking him out. Pico tends to rush in and hope to land big combos while countering his opponent. When you look at Murphy on the feet, he’s great at avoiding bad situations. He doesn’t stay in the pocket and uses his footwork to get out of range while throwing his combinations. In terms of the quality of the opponent, this is the hardest fight of Pico’s career.
If he can land takedowns, mix it up enough to keep Murphy guessing, that’s a true path to victory. If this stays standing for three straight rounds, it’s hard to see Murphy losing a technical striking battle against Pico.
Geoff Neal
3.05
1.40
Carlos Prates
Carlos Prates has taken on increasingly tough competition and did well against Ian Garry. He weathered the storm, then made a solid comeback in the championship rounds. The biggest takeaway from that fight is that cigarettes don’t affect his cardio in five-round fights. The UFC is giving him a solid bounce-back fight against Geoff Neal, someone who has struggled with the top echelon of UFC welterweights.
Neal is a tough fighter with solid power, but he’s one-dimensional and hasn’t proven himself against top 10 fighters. He’s a solid gatekeeper, and the UFC continues to use him as a proving ground for potential title contenders. Against Prates, his only chance is a massive KO finish early in the fight. He tends to lose confidence as the fight progresses, and his ability to land the big shot will gradually disappear.
For Prates, it’s quite simple. Stay at a distance, continue to land combos with kicks and punches until Neal gives you a bigger opening. Given Prates’ ability to wear down his opponents, it’s hard to see Neal lasting all three rounds, but he’s proven his durability and toughest against some of the best UFC fighters. The most likely outcome here is that Neal ends up taking far too many shots and gets finished after taking too much damage.
Jared Cannonier
2.64
1.50
Michael Page
The major issue with Jared Cannonier is the gradual regression against top competition. There’s no doubt he’s a top 15 middleweight in the UFC, but he’s starting to struggle with the top fighters. Not only is he getting clipped and showing fatigue, but he’s not able to land his combos. Against Gregory Rodrigues, it was a solid matchup of someone who throws less volume and can get tired over five rounds. Against Caio Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov, it was much harder to find any success.
The same can’t be said for Michael Page. After coming over from Bellator, Page has fought increasingly tougher competition and continues to improve. He was great in his debut against Kevin Holland, was competitive against a top prospect in Garry, and looked incredible against Shara Magomedov. His unique striking that combines precision and timing continues to be his claim to fame.
Unless Cannonier is willing to wrestle and grapple the way Garry did to steal rounds, it’s hard to see Page losing any minutes on the feet. His footwork is solid, his cardio will be better, and his ability to land cleaner shots will keep Cannonier on his back foot. Cannonier does his best work as he lands more over time, but if he can’t catch you early, he gradually struggles to stay in the fight. Outside of finding immediate success on the feet or mixing it up with the wrestling, it’s hard to see Cannonier pull off the upset.
Tim Elliot
3.50
1.32
Kai Asakura
This fight comes down to where Tim Elliot is in his career. A few years ago, this would be a solid dog shot. Let’s remember, Elliot is the winner of the Ultimate Fighter flyweight tournament and gave Demetrius Johnson a run for his money, but that was a long time ago. Despite being 9-11 in the UFC, Elliot is 3-2 in his last fight and won his last fight via arm triangle choke in the first round. The bigger issue is we haven’t seen him in the UFC since 2023.
Kai Asakura came into the UFC as a star in Japan and a contender for Alexandre Pantoja. As most pundits expected, the UFC was doing too much to bring in top flyweight talent, and he was finished in the second round via rear-naked choke. It was his first submission loss, but it was solid proof that he wasn’t ready for the highest level. Now, the UFC gives him a gritty veteran who will still present a tough challenge.
If Elliot can grapple and weather the early storm, he does have a chance to win this fight. The key to defeating Elliot is to deal damage early. Do not let him build confidence and force him to get desperate. If Asakura can’t find early success, this fight could be a lot closer than people think. Elliot’s durability has always been solid, and if he maintains solid cardio, Asakura could be in trouble. 13 of Asakura’s 21 wins are via TKO/KO, and that could be his best path to victory, unless he can outwork Elliot for three rounds.
UFC BEST BETS
(all bets 1 Unit unless specified)
Lerone Murphy to Win @ 2.42
This line seems exaggerated. Pico has solid highlight reels, but the level of competition is nowhere near Murphy’s. He was a title hopeful in Bellator, but came over to the UFC due to inactivity. Murphy has been taking on fighters in the top 10 of the division. He’s a good distance striker, should be able to avoid Pico’s big power strikes, and it will come down to avoiding Pico’s wrestling. This is a good enough number to take a chance.
Dricus Du Plessis to Win @ 3.10 (0.25 Units)
If he survives the first two rounds, he’s live to win this fight. It comes down to survival, and taking Chimaev to win in Rounds 1 or 2 makes a lot of sense based on the odds for Du Plessis to win in rounds 3,4,5, or a decision.
Barboza / Hooper / Prates Parlay @ 3.34 (0.5 Units)
Edson Barboza decided to move up in weight, and he gets Drakkar Klose. This is a solid move for Barboza, who always struggled later in fights due to damage and cardio. However, he’d always stay in the fight on pure heart. In this one, he has a solid reach advantage, should be the better striker, and is only dodging takedown attempts. If he can land the better shots and keep the fight standing, even in the clinch, he should be able to get a decision if he doesn’t finish the fight.
Chase Hooper should be the better grappler against Alexander Hernandez, and his striking continues to improve. There should also be a cardio advantage if this goes into the later rounds.
Prates looked great against a potential title challenger, and this is a favourable matchup with a fighter who likes to stay on the feet. Neal is more flat-footed in his striking, whereas Prates likes to circle and pick his shots. This is a showcase fight for Prates.
Idiris / Susurkaev / Barboza @ 3.44 (0.5 Units)
Alibi Idiris was a star on the Ultimate Fighter, and he makes his way onto the UFC 319 card this weekend. Daniel Cormier praised him all season, and this will be a good time to take him against a favourable opponent.
Baysangur Susurkaev is on a legendary run after his showing on Dana White’s Contender Series. After finishing his fight with a beautiful kick, he now gets a chance to fight on the same card as Chimaev. He will be looking for another finish against a short-notice fighter moving up in weight.
Gerald Meerschaert via Submission @ 5.00 (0.25 Units)
Gerald Meerschaert’s striking has always been questionable, and the books believe he’s going to get finished by Michal Oleksiejczuk, but if he’s able to get this fight to the ground, this has a chance of hitting. Meerschaert is a solid grappler, and Oleksiejczuk has been submitted in plenty of his losses. Let’s take a chance on the underdog with his best path to victory.
Tim Elliot +3.5 Spread @ 2.10 (0.25 Units)
This is just a dog shot on a true veteran who has been away from the sport for a long time. Asakura was humbled against the champion and now gets an unconventional wrestler who always puts up a good fight. Elliot’s kryptonite has always been good grapplers, but Asakura only has three submission wins in 26 fights.
Meerschaert-Oleksiejczuk Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance / Carlos Prates ML / Chase Hooper ML @ 2.32
Meerschaert and Oleksiejczuk both have finishing prowess, and one guy does well on the ground, and the other does well on the feet. Feels like someone’s going to end the fight.
Long Shot Parlay:
Idiris / Hooper / O 2.5 Silva-Barbosa / Barboza / No Distance – Meerschaert-Oleksieijczuk / Susurkaev / Cannonier-Page goes the Distance / Murphy @ 18.33 (0.15 Units)
We’re going to try a small amount on a long shot part with some of the better looks on the card. Let’s hope we can hit big.
UFC 319 comes at the perfect time. Last week, the UFC did the best with what they had, but we’re getting some much-anticipated fights across the board. Whether it’s high-profile fights or returning prospects, UFC 319 has it all. Don’t forget to check back in later in the week for our UFC 319 best bets heading into fight night.
