UFC 321 was a disappointment both from an action and betting standpoint. While we had some solid leans on big-money, underdog plays, the two favorites we rolled with couldn’t cash. While Nasrat Haqparast just couldn’t last, Aleksander Rakic looked out of place against a surging Azamat Murzakanov. We lost -0.68 units but are still sitting at a respectable +14.3675 units since March.
After some exciting cards over the last few weeks, the UFC returns with UFC Vegas 110 from the UFC Apex.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Charles Radtke
1.61
2.36
Daniel Frunza
Charles Radtke entered the UFC as the CFFC champion, but he’s 3-2 after taking on top-level competition in Carlos Prates and Mike Malott. He’s a powerful striker, but the more technical fighters have been able to exploit him for big finishes. This time around, he gets UFC newcomer Daniel Frunza.
Frunza lost his UFC debut to Rhys McKee via doctor stoppage after winning his Dana White Contender Series fight. He has solid experience for his age, but the UFC level is a whole new ball game. He’s lost by both knockout and submission, which means he could be susceptible to Radtke as well, but his loss via knockout was a gruesome lip injury he suffered against McKee.
From an MMA perspective, this line is close. Both guys are good strikers with impressive power, so this could come down to who can mix it up better. It would not be surprising to see Radtke take a grappling approach to find a submission. If this fight stays standing, it could be anyone’s fight, and both guys could find a finish.
Isaac Dulgarian
1.40
3.05
Yadier delValle
Some believe Isaac Dulgarian should still be an undefeated fighter. His only loss was a close split decision to Christian Rodriguez, and depending on how you weigh grappling and wrestling, he may have done enough to win the fight. He made no mistakes in his next fight, finishing Brendon Marotte via arm triangle choke in the second round. Based on his style, finding a finish is imperative, but also staying active and dishing out damage will help him score points.
Yadier DelValle is an exciting prospect and looked good in his UFC debut against Connor Matthews. He was able to find a submission finish in the first round, but this fight will be a different beast. Dulgarian should be the better wrestler, but delValle showed he can hang anywhere in the fight. He’s never lost, so this could be the toughest fight to date, and it will come down to how well he can manage Dulgarian’s wrestling-heavy style and find ways to land.
Looking back at the Jailton Almeida and Alexander Volkov fight, it’s obvious the judges will not just score wrestling and control time. You have to do damage. If DelValle can keep the fight standing, he has a solid shot at finding the upset win. Even if he can’t, finding ways to do damage even when Dulgarian is threatening takedowns and holding for control time will surely do wonders on the judges’ scorecards.
Jeremiah Wells
2.10
1.76
Themba Gorimbo
Jeremiah Wells came into the UFC on fire. He was the CFFC champion, went 4-0 in his first four fights, but cooled down against Carlston Harris and Max Griffin. In both fights, the cardio and durability factor kicked in. Harris was able to find a late submission in the third round, and Griffin is known for taking fighters into deep waters and winning on volume. In Wells’ defense, he lost via split decision, but now he gets another tough test with Themba Gorimbo.
Once again, on MMA terms, this is still a close fight based on the betting lines. Gorimbo is the favorite and for good reason. He was 4-0 going into the Vincent Luque fight, but the skill gap proved to be too much. He lost via anaconda choke in under a minute, but Luque was poised to come away with a big win that night. All four of his wins leading up to that fight are respectable, though. Ramiz Brahimaj has turned into a problem since their fight, and Gorimbo dominated him.
This fight will come down to who can last the longest and maintain the most endurance late in the fight. If we don’t see an early finish, Gorimbo should have an edge based on what we’ve seen already. If Wells has worked on his cardio and can manage his output early in the fight, this could turn into a super competitive fight between two aging, well-rounded fighters.
If Wells loses, he shouldn’t be cut. The UFC continues to bring in fighters at a high rate, and it’s clear their leash is starting to shorten. Wells is 38 years old and still 4-2 in the UFC. Even with a loss, he’s talented enough to deserve another opportunity as a lower-end gatekeeper. The skill is there, but similar to most fighters at his age, the durability and endurance will diminish over time. He’s still a tough test for any fighter entering the UFC for the first time.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
1.98
1.84
Ante Delija
Ante Delija came out of nowhere on the UFC scene. We saw him during his time with the PFL, but he lost to Valentin Moldavsky and left the organization. After one regional fight against Yorgan de Castro, Delija found himself in the UFC against Marcin Tybura. Not much was expected of him in such a high-profile fight, but he came out swinging, literally, and won the fight via knockout in the first round. This made up for an M-1 loss to Tybura back in 2015 when he injured his leg and lost the title fight.
Since 2015, Delija has only lost in major PFL fights and is 26-6 in his career. The experience is there, and it will matter in his next UFC fight against Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Both fighters have solid boxing, but Delija’s experience compared to Cortes-Acosta’s 14-2 record is a massive advantage. Cortes-Acosta looked great leading up to his Sergei Pavlovich fight, but the better footwork and boxing won. He looked less aggressive to throw and was on his back foot.
Delija will need to be careful with his aggressive striking and stay in kickboxing range. While he’s proven to hold his own on the feet, Cortes-Acosta should have a slight edge in the boxing range. Pavlovich was able to solve the Cortes-Acosta puzzle and made it look easy. Delija should have a more well-rounded game, but we’ve seen how well Cortes-Acosta can do when fighters give him the chance to get himself going. This fight is very close, and it will be interesting to see who gets the edge early in the fight.
Steve Garcia
1.74
2.14
David Onama
People seem to be against this fight, but when you assess both Steve Garcia and David Onama’s run in the UFC right now, this is the perfect main event. Both fighters deserve the spotlight, and it would be nice to see a fight over five rounds. Garcia just beat Calvin Kattar, and Onama just beat Giga Chikadze, proving that the torch has been passed to a new group of title hopefuls.
While Onama has never been finished, Garcia’s improvement over the last few years is one of the best we’ve seen in a long time. He’s on a six-fight win streak after getting knocked out for the first time in his career, and now he is a dark horse candidate to enter the title picture. The level of competition can’t be stressed enough, either. Garcia’s wins are against high-level fighters, and his boxing is proving to be some of the best in the division. Kattar has great boxing as well, but Garcia’s footwork was just better.
Can Onama hang with Garcia’s boxing? The initial lean is no. Garcia truly looks like a world beater in terms of pure MMA boxing, but Onama can mix it up well, and we already know Garcia has been knocked out in the past. If Onama can find ways to stay in kickboxing range, but also force Garcia into a dog fight of grappling, wrestling, and kickboxing, he has a chance to pull off the upset. The biggest difference here is that Garcia has the tougher strength of schedule, and his boxing is just so clean. I expect fireworks in this one.
Last week had plenty of finishes and big-name fights, but this week should fly under the radar and deliver surprisingly. The main event promises to have some serious fireworks, while the rest of the card has plenty of hungry fighters who need to make a statement in the UFC. Don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Vegas 110 best bets as we get back on track.
