UFC Vegas 110 was full of controversy, but we still came out on top. We went perfect on our best bets, for a total of +4.08 units on the night. That brings us to +18.448 units since March. Can we keep the streak alive for UFC Vegas 111?
The UFC is back in the APEX with Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown doing battle in the main event. The co-main event features a showcase fight for up-and-coming flyweight Joseph Morales against Matt Schnell. Let’s take a look at the entire main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Vegas 111 best bets, as we try to perfect two weeks in a row.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Christian Leroy Duncan
2.54
1.54
Marco Tulio
Is Marco Tulio the real deal? He’s got a chance to prove it against Christian Leroy Duncan. The last time Duncan took on a top-level middleweight, he got dominated. He recovered against Andrey Puyaev and Eryk Anders, but this is a different level now. He’s a solid boxer, but Tulio packs a serious punch and is well-rounded.
Tulio is 14-1 and on a 10-fight win streak. His win against Yousri Belgaroui is aging well, and he’s done well after his second stint on Dana White’s Contender Series. After knocking out Ihor Potieria, he finished Tresean Gore next time out. He looks to be the more clean and technical striker, and he’s been on an absolute mean streak.
Duncan’s best path to victory here is maintaining distance, finding his range, and making this a technical striking match. If it turns into a brawl, Tulio should have an edge. When Duncan fought Gregory Rodrigues, we saw what could happen when he gets into a brawl with a well-rounded, powerful fighter. This should be a good one.
Ricky Simon
1.57
2.45
Raoni Barcelos
In a battle of true veterans, Ricky Simon and Raoni Barcelos get a main card spot in what should be an entertaining fight. Both fighters are riding win streaks, but the most impressive part is the level of competition. While Barcelos gets the edge, Simon’s knockout against Javid Basharat was one of the best career resurgence moments of 2025.
Barcelos still deserves a little bit more respect for his three-fight win streak. After losing to Umar Nurmagomedov and Kyler Phillips, Barcelos beat Cristian Quinonez, Payton Talbott, and Cody Garbrandt. At 38 years old, Barcelos is proof that MMA is less about youth, but more about experience and skills. Another win puts him in an elite spot moving into his next fight.
The main thing about this fight is Simon is his striking looks lethal. After making a run as a dominant wrestler earlier in his career, he now has significant power and is ready to throw heavy hands to get the finish. His mix of elite wrestling and powerful boxing could be the perfect combination to slow the aging Barcelos. Both guys do well in firefights, but Simon’s ability to take it to the ground could be a major difference maker in what could be a close fight on the feet.
Ismael Bonfim
1.48
2.70
Chris Padilla
Despite being 16-6, Chris Padilla has found his way to a 3-0 UFC record. While the wins aren’t the most exciting, James Llontop, Rongzhu, and Jai Herbert is quite respectable for a UFC newcomer. He keeps himself in the fight and finds ways to do damage. He’s going to need that style against a hungry Ismael Bonfim.
Bonfim is returning after losing his last fight via doctor stoppage. In what was an absolute brawl with Nazim Sadykhov, Bonfim was doing well in the early part of the first round. The fight got a lot more competitive towards the end, but he took a lot of damage as the round closed. Before the second round started, the fight was called via doctor stoppage. He’s 2-2 in the UFC, but is still oozing potential after taking on solid competition in his first four UFC fights.
Even with Padilla as sizeable underdog, this fight should be competitive. While Bonfim should be the more exciting fighter, Padilla should be able to stay in the fight and find ways to win minutes. If this turns into a brawl, it will be interesting to see who gets the upper hand early, because both guys have the potential to take over this fight and never look back.
Muslim Salikhov
2.42
1.58
Uros Medic
After the Randy Brown fight, everyone was writing off Muslim Salikhov. All of a sudden, he’s 3-0 in his last three fights. The most notable win was a massive upset over Carlos Leal, a fight many people believed he was going to lose in a bad way. He ended up finding a finish in less than a minute. With that, he’s got two first round finishes in his last two fights with two performance bonuses. Take a bow, Salikhov.
This time around, he gets Uros Medic, another fighter who seemed to be on his way out before making a nice comeback against Gilbert Urbina. The main takeaway from his recent UFC record is he seems to dominate the lower end competition, but can’t seem to get over the hump of more experienced, hungry fighters like Myktybek Orolbai and Punahele Soriano. He lost both fights via finish.
This is basically a battle of kung fu versus boxing. While Salikhov has made a career out of strong, powerful, combinations of kicks and punches, Medic’s best performances are usually where he can use his boxing to find the finish. It will be much harder for him to find it, though, and based on Salkhov’s recent success, it’s hard to get behind these numbers.
Matt Schnell
3.60
1.30
Joseph Morales
Joseph Morales is getting one of the bigger showcase fights on the UFC Vegas 111 card. The UFC needs more flyweights to replenish the division, and Morales is going to get to show off his skills against Matt Schnell.
These two fighters are at opposite ends of their careers. Morales is a Team Alpha Male product under Urijah Faber, was the champion in his promotion, and is now getting a co-main spot after beating Alibi Idiris at UFC 319. Schnell is 2-5 in his last seven UFC fights and 1-3 since 2024. While he struggles with the higher level fighters in the division, his only win was against an out-of-retirement Jimmy Flick where he won via decision.
This may not be a major step up in terms of UFC experience, Morales is clearly a driven fighter and is being backed by one of the best fighters in UFC history. There’s a reason he’s one of the bigger favorites on the card, is getting a co-main spot, and is coming into this fight with all the hype. It’s no secret that the UFC is hoping for a massive finish to put Morales on the map and have his stock skyrocket by the end of the fight.
Gabriel Bonfim
1.54
2.54
Randy Brown
Gabriel Bonfim is a pretty big favorite against Randy Brown, but this fight looks way closer on paper. Yes, Bonfim is 18-1, but his competition is relatively questionable and he hasn’t been able to pull off the big submission wins as much as people thought. He’s 3-0 since his loss to Nicolas Dalby in 2023, but his most respectable win is a split decision against Stephen Thompson that could’ve gone either way.
Randy Brown has been ever improving, and his 14-6 UFC record is impressive. He’s 4-1 in his last five, but his loss before that is aging like fine wine, since Jack Della Maddalena is now the UFC champion. His most recent loss was against Bryan Battle which many people believe he won. He recently beat Nicolas Dalby with a beautiful right hook, and it’s his power that has been improving over the last few years.
The real question here is if Bonfim can get Brown down to the mat. Maddalena is the only person to submit Brown since 2016, and it will come down to Bonfim’s wrestling and grappling to avoid the striking battle. Brown is getting better on the feet and he’ll do everything he can to keep it there. He’s also not a bad grappler, but he has no reason to take this fight to the ground. Of all the underdogs on the card, there’s something to be said about Brown’s experience, recency bias, and skills against Bonfim.
UFC VEGAS 111 BEST BETS
Muslim Salikhov to Win @ 2.24 (0.5 Units)
This is a close fight, and Salikhov has looked good. With Medic having a questionable chin and struggling against more experienced fighters, this is a solid underdog look.
Joseph Morales to Finish @ 1.76
Morales should be in a real showcase spot against a regressing Schnell, who got a very favorable matchup last time out. This is an opportunity for Morales to fight for a top fight next time out, and I don’t see him disappointing.
Cavalcanti / Morales Parlay @ 1.72 (1.5 Units)
Mayra Bueno Silva looks to be on the way out. She’s had a few runs at the UFC, but is fading slowly. Jacqueline Cavalcanti is on the opposite side of her career, looking to make a run against experienced UFC fighters. She’s one of the best spots on the card.
Joseph Morales won the Ultimate Fighter and is on his second stint with the UFC now. Matt Schnell won his last fight, but he’s been on the cusp of getting cut for a long time. He’s a true veteran, but Morales looks ready this time around.
UFC Vegas 111 may not be the most action-packed card, but there are some exciting fights to keep an eye on. Plenty of fighters are looking to move up the UFC food chain, and this is the perfect card for fighters to prove themselves. Keep it locked to SlotsFighter.com every week for our main card breakdown and best bets.
