UFC Vegas 108 could’ve been huge for us, but once again, the parlay stacks cost us. Instead of being up +3.14 units, we’re up +1.14 Units after Mateusz Rebecki lost to Chris Duncan in another fight of the year performance. With another slight winning weekend, we’re up to +11.59 Units overall.
Last week, I mentioned that this would be the last time if it cost us, so we’ll have to do a little more digging to avoid stacking the same fighter multiple times. Will we find success at UFC Vegas 109?
Roman Dolidze and Anthony Hernandez headline UFC Vegas 109, but there are some tough spots across the board. We’ll have to dig harder to find value, but we’ll make sure to do that later in the week. For now, let’s break down the main card, and remember to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC Vegas 109.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Eryk Anders
5.25
1.17
Christian Leroy Duncan
Eryk Anders is officially a real estate agent and mentioned that he will be retiring at the end of his UFC contract. There are a few things to unpack there, with the most important being his drive to win. While many will say this fight points to an under, there are plenty of reasons to steer clear of this fight.
Anders has been cracked a few times in his recent fights, but his ability to keep it close in distance, coupled with Christian Leroy Duncan’s inability to start fast, tells me this fight could be stagnant until the final round. The U 2.5 is priced at 2.45, which proves the books do not see this finishing early. Anders will try and clinch, wrestle, and avoid the kickboxing, while Duncan tries his best to stay in kicking range and land his usual combinations.
At a price tag of 1.17, the potential of a finish should be much higher, but it’s hard to trust a fighter who seems to turn it on too late, or doesn’t live up to the hype. Against savvy veterans, Duncan has not performed well, which makes this fight a stay away from a betting perspective.
Miles Johns
3.50
1.32
Jean Matsumoto
There is a growing concern for fighters who start as wrestlers abandoning their style to become more exciting strikers. Miles Johns falls right into that category. Throughout his UFC career, Johns averages 0.92 takedowns per 15/mins, while landing 3.16 strikes/minute and absorbing 2.65. His defense is 67%, but his accuracy is 44%. Add to the fact that Johns has never lost a UFC fight where he landed a takedown, there is something to be said for mixing it up, especially when he’s been outstruck in all of his losses.
If Johns continues down that path, Jean Matsumoto might be a nightmare matchup. Not only has he obliterated the 70-strike mark in three-round fights, but he’s well-rounded and only lost a split decision to Rob Font. He is the real deal in terms of UFC talent and has the skill to mix it up well.
Johns 80% takedown defense is his best asset here, but he’ll need to land big when he can and take advantage of any control time he can steal from Matsumoto. If he goes in looking for a big shot, this will be an uphill battle he simply cannot win.
Andre Fili
2.95
1.42
Christian Rodriguez
Christian Rodriguez has been a problem for several high-profile UFC prospects, but now he’s making his way as a UFC veteran. In his last fight, he didn’t seem like himself, but the pace was insane against a solid grappler. Against Andre Fili, he’ll need to employ a similar gameplan if he hopes to keep things rolling.
Fili comes from Team Alpha Male, where wrestling has always been their bread and butter. Despite that, Fili has always enjoyed the technical striking battles, and this would be the perfect fight to maintain distance and use his volume to outpace Rodriguez. Easier said than done, but Rodriguez has made a career out of taking guys into deep water and forcing them to work. Fili fights long and has a solid jab that could help him control the fight at a distance. That might be the only way to keep Rodriguez at bay.
If Rodriguez isn’t phased by anything Fili throws, we could be looking at a long, grueling battle for Fili. If this gets to a third round, it will come down to cardio and attrition to seal the victory for either fighter.
Iasmin Lucindo
1.50
2.64
Angela Hill
Despite the record, Angela Hill is a rite of passage for any growing female fighter in the UFC. If you want to make it to the top, you have to go through her. She is gritty, throws with volume, and seems to stay in the fight no matter what. She won her last fight in classic split decision fashion against Ketlen Souza and was about to outwork her over three rounds.
Iasmin Lucindo is still a prospect of sorts, but has fought solid competition in the UFC. Losing her debut to Yazmin Jauregui, she ripped off four straight wins after that before losing her last fight to Amanda Lemos. That was more of a levels thing against a solid veteran, but a good learning opportunity.
What works out for Lucindo in this veteran matchup is that Hill doesn’t throw with much power and tends to pick up the pace as she’s losing. If Lucindo can mix it up, find ways to dominate the ground, she has a good chance of getting back in the win column. Anytime she has outlanded her opponent in takedowns, she has never lost. She has an impressive 60% takedown accuracy, which should be her path to victory against a heavy-paced striker like Hill.
Steve Erceg
1.19
4.90
Ode’ Osbourne
This has to be the biggest surprise on the card, with 13-8 Ode’ Osbourne getting a chance to fight previous title challenger Steve Erceg. What stands out here is that the UFC is trying to keep Erceg at the top of the division after feeding him some of the best fighters in the UFC. After taking on guys like Alexandre Pantoja, Kai Kara France, and Brandon Moreno, Osbourne is a massive step down in competition.
Osbourne’s level of opponent is significantly lower, with minimal success. He’s 2-3 in his last five, with his recent win coming against UFC debutant Luis Gurule. He’s a good striker, but struggles with grapplers and can’t maintain the same pace for three rounds. His wins are either quick finishes against lower-level talent or close decisions.
The biggest issue with Erceg is that he got addicted to finding the highlight reel finishes. What made him a fan favorite after his title fight was his ability to find ways to survive and work his grappling against an elite fighter like Pantoja. The fact is, his striking isn’t top-five level in the division, and he needs to go back to his bread and butter. If he chooses to grapple with Osbourne, he could make this look easy. On the flip side, if he tries to stand and bang from the start, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Osbourne find a chin before Erceg can find his footing.
Roman Dolidze
3.75
1.28
Anthony Hernandez
This is a solid main event based on the rest of the card, and there are certainly title implications for Anthony Hernandez as he makes his way up the middleweight ladder. If he pulls off a big win, he could be a fight or two away from a title shot. He made Brendan Allen look average in their recent bout, and now he gets a tough challenge in Roman Dolidze.
Dolidze is a tough puzzle in general. He tends to lose to the best fighters because they excel in a certain area. However, Dolidze is on a three-fight win streak himself, having beaten Anthony Smith, Kevin Holland, and, most recently, Marvin Vettori.
This fight is way closer than the odds suggest. Dolidze has been fighting the best middleweights for a long time, while Hernandez has made his way up. Hernandez’s biggest advantage is the cardio. He’s a good wrestler, but Dolidze has never really been dominated on the ground. He tends to fade with volume, but could make this fight a lot closer early on. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Dolidze win a few early rounds, with the hopes of finishing the fight to avoid the championship rounds against a gas tank like Hernandez.
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BETS
(+11.59 Units Won – All bets 1 Unit unless specified)
This card is far too chalky given the level of fighters so we’re going to take it easy heading into UFC 319.
Fight Not to Go the Distance Parlay
Walker to Finish / Smith to Finish @ 1.65
I tried to find a bet that made sense to add here, but we’ll play the chalk on two guys getting favourable matchups, who play right into their skills, and should be out of the UFC in the near future.
Walker sometimes chases submissions, but could easily get the knockout, so picking between the two can be tricky.
Smith needs to have some sense of urgency, and his fight against a veteran last time out helped him gain some solid UFC experience. He should hit the ground running.
Chalk Parlay: Brundage / Fernandes / Smith / Walker @ 2.48 (0.5 units)
Cody Brundage was a late addition and should have success against the short notice fighter.
Gabriel Fernandes won as a 8.00 underdog in the past and she’s just solid everywhere. Her opponent is armbar or bust, so if she can avoid the ground, it’s hard to see her lose this fight.
Elijah Smith is a top prospect in the UFC and they are giving him a showcase fight after his last strong performance. He should be able to finish this fight.
Julius Walker did well against Alonzo Menifield and now gets a much easier test at the UFC level against Raffael Cerqueira. I just don’t see Cerqueira staying in the UFC much longer.
It would take a lot to go right for UFC Vegas 109 to live up to UFC Vegas 108, but people weren’t too excited about that card either. What makes great cards is that both fighters are game to go toe-to-toe, but find ways to generate offense while dealing with their opponent’s onslaught. While some fighters crumble under the pressure, others just find it tough to muster up any offense, and that’s when things get one-sided. Let’s hope that UFC Vegas 109 can continue the underrated excitement we’ve had for the last few weeks.
