We had a great night at UFC Nashville, going up +3.075 Units — now sitting at +9.825 Units total over the past few months. Momentum is on our side heading into UFC 318, one of the biggest cards of the year.
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NOW back to UFC 318!
UFC 318 will feature Dustin Poirier’s retirement fight against Max Holloway in what should be an exciting trilogy. Both guys are superstars and fan favorites, making it a tough one to call as well.
In the co-main event, Roman Kopylov hits the big stage against another fan favorite, Paulo Costa. While Costa is mostly adored for his social media antics, this is a great opportunity for him to prove that he belongs in the rankings against an up-and-coming contender.
The rest of the UFC 318 card looks solid, so let’s take a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our best bets!
UFC 318 MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Max Holloway
1.69
2.07
Dustin Poirier
Based on how the first two fights played out, it’s a little surprising to see Max Holloway as the favorite. However, he’s been improving as a lightweight and is looking to spoil Dustin Poirier’s retirement fight.
Holloway is coming off the worst loss of his career against Ilia Topuria, but that was at featherweight. With the weight cut and Topuria’s power, it makes sense that Holloway struggled in that fight. Against Poirier, the power may not be as much of an issue, and Holloway should have some hand speed and footwork to avoid Poirier’s best boxing combination. As the fight goes on, it will come down to how much damage he takes.
What a career it’s been for Poirier. Starting in the WEC, Poirier was part of the UFC merger and quickly became a mainstay in the lightweight division. Porier’s only dip in his career was struggling against solid boxers, but over the years, he has developed his boxing well and is now one of the better strikers in the division. He was able to do damage against Islam Makhachev and has decimated any up-and-comer he’s been scheduled to fight.
One angle I’ll be looking into here later in the week is strikes and significant strikes landed. Both guys are fairly durable and should be throwing a lot. Barring a quick finish, we should be in for an absolute treat with Holloway and Poirier dancing for a third and final time.
Paulo Costa
2.92
1.36
Roman Kopylov
These odds would be surprising a few years ago, but Paulo Costa has struggled in top-level fights, and Roman Kopylov is slowly becoming a real contender in the middleweight division. While Costa has lost his only two fights since 2022, Kopylov is 6-1 in his last seven UFC fights.
Kopylov has struggled with grapplers in the past, but he won’t have that problem with Costa. Both guys are solid kickboxers, and this comes down to volume and damage. Kopylov tends to improve over three rounds, while Costa could let it all go too early. Kopylov could find a late finish, but if he overexerts himself, Costa could do the same thing.
Costa lost a split decision against Sean Strickland for similar reasons. He wasn’t eating powerful shots and was just dealing with Strickland’s pressure and volume. If Costa comes out the same way and starts to land powerful shots, he still has the skill to take over a fight. The big thing will be staying disciplined and avoiding a brawl with Kopylov.
Kevin Holland
1.18
4.36
Daniel Rodriguez
This fight seems all about the UFC not only trying to build Holland up even more, but also creating exciting fights with two volume strikers with solid power. Despite Holland’s grappling skills, he usually keeps it on the feet. The only time we see him use his grappling is if his opponent takes him down. There’s limited to no chance that Rodriguez takes this fight to the ground.
The betting line suggests that it would be almost ridiculous for Holland to lose this fight. When you consider his advantage on the ground and sneaky power on the feet, Rodriguez’s path to victory is slim. His best chance is to keep this in boxing range and make it dirty. Avoid the kicks and keep the boxing going till he finds the big shot. The problem with that is Holland is not only durable, but he’s fast. He’ll find ways to counter and land his combinations.
Given both fighters’ styles, Holland could finish this fight on the feet. He tends to have good cardio when he’s striking for three rounds, and his volume always keeps a late finish in the cards. If Rodriguez has no answer, he could easily get finished on pure volume and exhaustion.
Dan Ige
1.51
2.41
Patricio Pitbull
Dan Ige is getting plenty of respect against Patricio Pitbull. Is this line wide? As an Ige fan, it’s easy to see how he can win this fight. He has great cardio, solid boxing, incredible takedown defense, and sneaky power. He only loses to the best fighters in the UFC.
Pitbull made a name for himself with Bellator but made his way over to the UFC late in his career. He made his debut in April against Yair Rodriguez and didn’t look great. He lost a unanimous decision, but it was a dominant loss. He has good hand speed and usually does well with mixing it up, but he wasn’t able to get anything going in his debut.
Against Ige, what is Pitbull’s best path to victory? The boxing should be close, but mixing it up with level changes and trying to make the most of his entries are his best chances. Ige makes limited mistakes, but elite strikers have been able to land and get out of the way. The age difference could be a factor given Ige’s speed and power. Pitbull is 38 years old, and there are limited ways for him to win this fight. Given how powerful Ige can be, it would not be surprising to see him brutally end this.
Michael Johnson
4.87
1.15
Daniel Zellhuber
Michael Johnson finds himself back on the main card after back-to-back wins. Were they favourable wins? Definitely, but wins are wins, and now he gets the high-flying prospect Daniel Zellhuber. After three solid wins in the UFC, Zellhuber lost a close split decision to Esteban Ribovics.
Even with the loss, Zellhuber has won three bonuses in a row. He’s an exciting fighter who thrives in distance striking and throws with volume. He may not have the flash knockouts regularly, but his ability to go three hard rounds has made him a dangerous fighter against anyone. He’s a fighter who knows how to use his length and will try to keep Johnson at bay while landing multi-strike combinations to keep him guessing.
If there’s one thing we’ve seen with Zellhuber, he’s hittable. He lands 6.26 strikes per minute, but he also absorbs 6.02 strikes per minute. If Johnson can find ways to avoid any big combos and land some of his own, he can make this a fight. Also, despite Zellhuber’s 94% takedown defense, challenging that aspect of his game could work well for the scrappy veteran. We’ve seen Johnson not only making some costly mistakes, but he’s been finished brutally as well. This is the perfect fight to stay disciplined, be patient, and find his spots to steal the fight.
UFC 318 is a solid card top to bottom. It’s the perfect mix of savvy veterans and up-and-coming contenders looking to move up their respective divisions. Fans will be sad to see Poirier call it quits, but there may not be a more perfect send-off fight against Holloway. As always, be sure to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC 318!
