After a massive UFC 317 for International Fight Week, the UFC took a break last weekend and now returns with UFC Nashville. While this is far from the double-title fight event we had two weeks ago, there are solid bouts on UFC Nashville that feature fan-favorite veterans and highly touted prospects.
The main event features two heavy-handed heavyweights with Derrick Lewis welcoming Tallison Teixeira to the upper-echelon of the 265-division. In the co-main event, Gabriel Bonfim tries to increase his stock against veteran Stephen Thompson. Here’s a look at the UFC Nashville main card, and as always, be sure to check back later in the week for our best bets. We’re up +6.75 Units so far!
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Junior Tafa
1.58
2.20
Tuco Tokkos
Junior Tafa is getting plenty of hype heading into his first fight at light heavyweight. He gets Tuco Tokkos, who has proven to be a tough customer, but this is a setup fight for Tafa to make a splash at 205. He will not have much of a size advantage, but if he can control the pace and for Tokkos into bad spots, a knockout finish seems right up his alley. He was able to weather storms at heavyweight and take over fights as they progressed, and this one could be a similar situation if Tokkos comes out swinging.
Tokkos is 0-2 in the UFC but put up a fight against Navajo Sterling, another Oceanic fighter who the UFC also loves. The matchmaking speaks volumes about how the UFC feels about their rising stars from Australia and New Zealand, and it’s up to them to take advantage of this spot. Sterling struggled, but you can expect fireworks with Tafa, who always looks for a big finish.
Vitor Petrino
1.15
4.87
Austen Lane
Vitor Petrino is in a similar spot to Tafa. Both fighters have exciting styles, and the UFC is giving them every chance to succeed. Austen Lane is 1-3 in his last four and riding the high of his perfect gamplan fight against Robelis Despaigne. Outside of that win, he’s been finished via strikes before the third round.
Lane’s biggest issue is that he struggles to keep his hands up. Even in his last fight against Mario Pinto, he had a few moments of success, but he got clipped in a bad way and lost the fight early in the second round. Petrino, in his own way, has had bad luck in the UFC as well. He did well against Dustin Jacoby but lost the fight late in the third round. Against Anthony Smith, he attempted a takedown and got caught in a guillotine.
This fight seems more about getting Petrino back to the drawing board and finding another highlight reel finish. Based on both fighters’ skill sets and recent success, it would be hard to see this fight lasting past the second round, with Petrino finding a way to end Lane’s UFC career.
Nate Landwehr
2.92
1.36
Morgan Charriere
In an exciting homecoming fight, Nate Landwehr is a massive underdog against the rising French star, Morgan Charriere. In terms of underdogs to consider on this card, Landwehr is hard to ignore.
Charriere hasn’t been the most dominant fighter in the UFC, but has found success against middle-of-the-pack talent. His two recent losses against Nathaniel Wood and Chepe Mariscal were examples of him losing to two great fighters in their respective disciplines. Wood is a solid kickboxer, and Mariscal is a fantastic wrestler. Both guys found ways to dominate the fight in certain areas and walked away with the victory.
Similarly, Landwehr lost to two great fighters in Doo Ho Choi and Dan Ige. Both fighters are not only extremely powerful, but durable as well. Landwehr looked great against Choi, but the Korean weathered the storm and finished the fight in the third round.
If Landwehr can make this fight gritty, avoid the heavy shots, and pace himself, he should be able to make this a competitive fight. Charriere has to be careful against a well-rounded and powerful guy like Landwehr because he can make this fight close. If this goes to a decision, it will be interesting to see which way the judges go.
Calvin Kattar
1.96
1.77
Steve Garcia
Is Calvin Kattar being overlooked against Steve Garcia?
Garcia is riding a wild five-fight KO streak and is 6-2 in the UFC with 6 KOs. The hype is there, the tape supports it, and the UFC is ready to give him a shot against a top name.
The thing about Kattar is he’s riding a four-fight losing streak, but those losses are against Youssef Zalal, Aljamain Sterling, Arnold Allen, and Josh Emmett. Allen is the only fighter to ever knock out Kattar and we’ve seen him take plenty of damage. He’s a solid boxer and always puts up a fight, and we’ve also seen Garcia get finished on the feet.
This fight comes down to who you think will make the first mistake and who packs the harder punch. Given their recent fights, Garcia should get the nod in pure power, but in terms of technical striking, Kattar will make this a dog fight. While it’s hard to side with Kattar on paper, any line better than 2.00 is worth a shot in a fight where either fighter could land a finishing blow.
Stephen Thompson
3.91
1.22
Gabriel Bonfim
After taking on top contenders Joaquin Buckley and Shavkat Rakhmonov, 42-year-old Stephen Thompson gets a rising contender in Gabriel Bonfim. This is another example of two fighters at opposite ends of their careers. While Thompson is 1-4 in his last fight, Bonfim is 4-1.
Thompson will always be remembered for his clean kickboxing and karate. His combinations are lethal, and his ability to pick his strikes is second to none. However, as we’ve seen, with age and damage comes regression. Bonfim had one hiccup against Nicolas Dalby, but came back strong in his next two fights.
The most respectable thing about Bonfim’s career is that he took a similar route to some of the greats. He entered the UFC as the LFA champion and went on to win his next three fights. He’s 17-1 and just 27 years old. The only path to victory here for Thompson is to stay off the mat, manage the distance, and find ways to land his best shots without eating too many. We’ve seen Thompson’s chin start to deteriorate, and a club-and-sub seems right up Bonfim’s alley.
Derrick Lewis
3.15
1.32
Tallison Teixeira
This fight is one of the more interesting matchups for a few reasons. For one, the UFC heavyweight division is begging for fresh talent. Tallison Teixeira has looked the part against lesser competition but here comes the fast track to the top against Derrick Lewis. Secondly, this will be the perfect test to see where Lewis’ career currently stands. He won his last fight against a favourable opponent, but he’s back to taking on one of the brighter prospects in the promotion.
It’s truly mesmerizing to think about this fight going five rounds. Imagine what this fight would look like for 25 minutes. Who is doing more damage? How much volume will they realistically be throwing? The biggest knock on Lewis is that when he’s not on his game, he looks way worse than he is. Sometimes it’s lingering injuries, or getting caught with heavy punches by a powerful fighter, and almost giving up. Lewis’s best wins come from timing. He’s elite at catching fighters coming in and landing one of the hardest shots in the game.
With Teixeira’s style, it would be smart for him to stay on the outside for as long as possible, use his length, and land low kicks. Lewis has never reacted well to low kicks, and it sets up the big shots up top well. Lewis will be headhunting and looking to close the distance. If he can, it would not be surprising to see Lewis land a finishing blow of his own.
UFC NASHVILLE BEST BETS
Jake Matthews to Win @ 2.30 (0.5 Units)
Matthews has been in the UFC for 11 years. He’s never been ranked, but he always seems to do enough to stick around. Njokuani has been cutting down again and looked good in his last fight, but there’s always a chance that the gas tank falters. If Matthews doesn’t get finished in the first round, he should be able to take over this fight over three rounds and steal a decision.
Lauren Murphy to Win @ 5.55 (0.20 Units)
This is a number play. Yes, Murphy is older now and hasn’t fought in a while, but her two losses since 2019 are Jessica Andrade and Valentina Shevchenko. Moura is a rising prospect, but the level of competition is drastically different. Let’s have some fun with this one and hope for a big underdog cash.
Derrick Lewis to Win @ 3.25 (0.25 Units)
Let’s end this night of underdog shots with one of the best ones on the card. This just seems like too much, too soon. Lewis is fairly durable and is only susceptible to very powerful guys. Teixeira’s Dana White Contender Series fight always comes to mind when you think about his striking defense. His win against Tafa was finding a way to land an elbow against the fence. There are certain areas where Lewis needs to avoid the fight, and Teixeira hasn’t been out of the first round. If this goes deeper, surprisingly enough, Lewis should have an advantage.
-3.5 Spread Parlay: Kline / Petrino / Bonfim @ 2.17 (0.5 Units)
This is just a good way to find value in unanimous decisions. All three fighters could finish the fight, but the most important part of this is that they all should have a path to victory that involves dominating a certain area of the fight. All three fights are solid grapplers and are taking on fighters who could spend all three rounds on their backs. I’m happy to take a chance on that at this price.
Petrino to Finish / Kline / Curtis / Davis @ 1.85 (0.5 Units)
This is a play on the best chalk available on the card. Yes, it’s a steep lay, but all three fighters have a significant edge in their fight. Petrino is taking on Lane, and this could be his last fight in the UFC. He’s been brutally finished, and I don’t see that stopping with Petrino.
Kline is in a setup fight here to put on a show. We’ll take a chance on her. Lastly, Curtis is moving down to welterweight after feeling undersized at middleweight. If the fight stays standing, he should be able to box his way to victory.
Mike Davis didn’t look his best in his last fight, but he had plenty of excuses for the loss. Coming back to home soil and looking to redeem himself, he’s also getting a favourable matchup where he should be able to dominate on the feet or the ground.
The main card for UFC Nashville is expected to deliver. With a good mix of long-time fan favorites and up-and-comers, the fights should be competitive, with plenty on the line. If this card doesn’t tug at the right strings for you, then consider it an appetizer heading into UFC 318.
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