Another winning week at UFC Paris in the books!
We were two fighters away from a clean sweep, but still came away with +1.725 Units on the night. We’ve been one or two fighters away from massive nights, but we’ll continue to hit the drawing board and look for the best opportunities.
We now head to UFC Noche in Arizona for Jean Silva vs. Jose Delgado in the main event, and Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales in the co-main event. As we continue to ride the hot streak, let’s take a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Noche best bets.
UFC Noche Main Card Breakdown
David Martinez
1.26
4.00
Dan Ige
David Martinez is an explosive bantamweight contender built on sharp combination striking and high volume. A medical doctor turned professional fighter, Martinez possesses a technical, aggressive kickboxing style paired with tight spatial defense and a 100% takedown defense rate in his UFC run. He excels at pressuring opponents into committing early, enabling him to counter with powerful right hands and rapid leg kick sequences.
Dan Ige brings a wealth of top-tier Octagon experience, serving as one of the ultimate gatekeepers in modern MMA. Known for his granite chin, relentless durability, and compact, heavy-handed boxing, Ige relies on looping overhands and body-head combinations to inflict damage. His ability to force chaotic exchanges and push a grueling pace makes him a dangerous veteran test for any prospect looking to step into elite territory.
The fight boils down to Martinez’s distance management versus Ige’s ability to turn the contest into a dirty boxing brawl. Martinez will likely want to stay at range, utilizing his superior output (4.82 significant strikes per minute) and footwork to pick Ige apart from the outside. Ige’s best path to victory involves cutting off the cage, swallowing the early output, and landing power shots in tight pocket exchanges. If Martinez stays disciplined on the outside, his volume should earn him a decision, but one lapse in defense gives the heavy-handed Ige a route to an upset KO.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
1.48
2.70
Curtis Blaydes
Waldo Cortes-Acosta brings a heavy-volume, boxing-heavy approach to the division, built around dynamic movement and crisp combinations. Moving away from a pure wild-brawling style, Cortes-Acosta utilizes strong jab work, low leg kicks, and high strike output to build leads over three rounds. His focus remains on staying light on his feet, maintaining range, and forcing opponents to engage on the feet where his hands and durability shine.
Curtis Blaydes is one of the most credentialed heavy-wrestlers in modern MMA, anchored by elite double-leg takedowns and oppressive top control. While his striking and power in tight pocket exchanges have steadily improved, his ultimate game plan revolves around grinding opponents against the fence, grounded punishment, and exhausting their gas tanks. Blaydes’ vast experience against elite top-five contenders gives him a massive veteran edge in high-stakes heavyweight crossroad bouts.
The contest is a classic striker-versus-grappler stylistic clash. Cortes-Acosta’s path to victory relies on defending early takedown attempts, keeping the fight at distance, and touching Blaydes with long straight rights and leg kicks. For Blaydes, success means closing the distance quickly, neutralizing Cortes-Acosta’s volume, and getting the fight down to the canvas to land ground-and-pound. If Cortes-Acosta can keep his back off the mat, his superior output gives him an edge on the cards, but Blaydes’ wrestling remains a brutal test for any heavyweight trying to break into top contention.
Manon Fiorot
1.40
3.05
Alexa Grasso
Manon Fiorot relies on a point-fighting, kickboxing-centric style defined by physical size, long-range management, and high strike output. The powerhouse French flyweight operates behind a steady volume of side kicks and long straight punches, keeping opponents at bay while controlling the Octagon’s pacing. Complemented by elite takedown defense, Fiorot excels at shutting down grappling entries, forcing opponents to spend 15 to 25 minutes trying to solve her length and relentless rhythm.
Former flyweight champion Alexa Grasso brings slick, fluid boxing, precise combination counter-striking, and opportunistic submission instincts. The Mexican fan-favorite operates best in close-to-medium ranges, leveraging tight pocket footwork and high-level scrambles to make her opponents pay for overcommitting. While she can be out-volumed on the outside, Grasso’s sharp chin-checking rights and ability to pounce on microscopic mistakes give her a fight-ending threat anywhere the bout goes.
The match hinges on distance control versus counter-trapping in tight exchanges. Fiorot will aim to keep Grasso at the end of her range with side kicks and high volume, neutralizing Grasso’s boxing entries before she can sit down on her shots. Grasso’s path lies in cutting off the ring, ducking under Fiorot’s straight punches, and turning blitzes into dirty boxing or mat scrambles. If Fiorot keeps the fight long, her output and sprawl should sweep the rounds, but Grasso only needs one pocket exchange or defensive lapse to turn the fight in her favor.
Tommy McMillen
1.60
2.40
Marwan Rahiki
Tommy McMillen comes in as an undefeated featherweight prospect built on rounded aggression, high strike output, and opportunistic grappling. Holding an even mix of knockout and submission finishes, McMillen uses his tall 5’11” frame and range to push an intense early pace. His ability to blend heavy kickboxing combinations with a dangerous submission game makes him a dynamic threat anywhere the fight goes.
Marwan Rahiki enters as a dangerous, heavy-hitting prospect who leans into violent knockout power. Boasting a pristine undefeated record with almost all of his victories coming via KO or TKO, Rahiki relies on explosive, quick-burst striking to close the gap and overwhelm opponents early. While his game is heavily concentrated in standing exchanges, his fight-ending power makes him a constant threat to turn the tide with a single strike.
The match comes down to McMillen’s length and versatile skill set against Rahiki’s raw fight-ending power. McMillen will likely look to maintain range behind his jab and leg kicks, using his height advantage to dictate distance before mixing in takedown attempts. Rahiki’s path requires blitzing inside, pressuring McMillen against the cage, and forcing high-damage pocket trades where his power shines. If McMillen controls the tempo and utilizes his grappling layers, he should wear Rahiki down, but a lapse in spatial management opens the door for Rahiki’s explosive striking.
Brandon Moreno
2.00
1.83
Joseph Morales
Brandon Moreno relies on a high-volume, scrambling style driven by crisp boxing combinations and relentless cardio. A former two-time UFC flyweight champion, Moreno utilizes long jabs, rapid hook sequences, and a relentless pace to overwhelm opponents as fights progress. Complementing his sharp head movement and boxing, Moreno is an elite opportunist in grappling scrambles, capable of snatching slick submissions whenever the fight hits the mat.
Joseph Morales brings a well-rounded, submission-heavy skill set built around opportunism and durability. Rebuilding his career through The Ultimate Fighter before making a successful return to the UFC, Morales operates out of Team Alpha Male with strong choke mechanics and active mat work. While he works with a more measured striking rhythm, his ability to capitalize on defensive lapses and snatch tight submissions makes him a dangerous dog in transitions.
The fight pivots on Moreno’s high pace and volume against Morales’ ability to force ground scrambles. Moreno will look to maintain range, landing multi-punch combinations and leveraging his superior pace to drain Morales over three rounds. Morales’ path hinges on timing Moreno’s forward aggression, catching him in pocket exchanges, or dragging the fight to the mat to hunt for submissions. If Moreno keeps his output high and avoids reckless exchanges, his championship-level experience and pace should secure the victory, but Morales remains dangerous if the fight turns chaotic on the canvas.
Jean Silva
1.23
4.30
Jose Delgado
Jean Silva operates as an explosive, highly aggressive power striker who thrives in chaotic, fast-paced fights. Possessing terrifying physical power and sharp, unpredictable combinations, Silva relies on forward pressure, heavy counter hooks, and devastating body strikes to break opponents down. His high-risk, high-reward approach is backed up by sneaky submission skills and a relentless, confident demeanor that keeps fighters on the back foot from the opening bell.
Jose Delgado relies on sharp, long-range kickboxing and rapid speed. Boasting a frame that grants him distinct height and reach advantages, Delgado uses dynamic switch-stance kicking, snappy straight rights, and precise footwork to pick opponents apart from the outside. While his striking aesthetics favor distance, Delgado possesses explosive finish capabilities, capable of landing blitzing combinations or jumping on opportunistic submissions during scrambles.
The contest presents a direct stylistic battle between Silva’s explosive, forward-marching blitzes and Delgado’s long-range technical sniping. Silva will aim to crash the distance early, cut off the Octagon, and force Delgado into heavy pocket exchanges where his raw power can land clean. Delgado’s best path to victory lies in maintaining strict distance with jab-teep combinations, using his reach to check Silva’s entries and slow the pace. If Silva breaches the guard to turn the fight into a phone-booth brawl, his finishing power should prevail, but if Delgado manages spatial control, his length and volume could tilt the rounds in his favor.
UFC Noche Best Bets
2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
2026 Record: 71-80-1, +18.325 Units
Yousri Belgaroui via KO @ 1.74 (2.5 Units)
This seems like a showcase fight where Yousri Belgaroui has every opportunity to use his distance striking and find a finish. Even if he doesn’t do it early, the volume and accuracy should be more than enough to get the job done within three rounds.
Silva-Delgado NO Distance / McMilllen-Rahiki NO Distance Parlay @ 1.77 (2.5 Units)
Jean Silva will be hunting for a finish all fight. For the safer look, we’ll add the chance that Jose Delgado catches him on a lucky punch where Silva extends too far. Silva has taken a good amount of time away, and this should be a chance for him to show out.
McMillen keeps a crazy pace but gets hit a lot. At the same time, Rahiki has proven to be chinney and fights with his hands low. McMillen also has a sneaky submission game that he could rely on if this fight hits the ground. One of these guys should finish this fight within three rounds.
Edgar Chairez to Win / Regina Tarin to Win @ 1.93 (1.5 Units)
Edgar Chariez is a solid all-around fighter. He doesn’t have the knockout power, but his strikes are lethal, and he has a fantastic ground game. He should be better than Tim Elliot everywhere and has a solid chance to finish the fight via submission.
JJ Aldrich isn’t a bad underdog look, but she snuck her way to a win last time out, and Regina Tarin should have the volume and pace to secure a win. She’s tough, throws hard, and has the hunger to finish fights.
Chairez to Finish @ 2.35
We’re going to double down on Chairez. Not only should he win, but he has multiple ways of finishing the fight. Wether it’s elbows an volume strikes on the feet, or ground and pound, Chairez has a sneaky submission game and Elliot tends to put himself in bad positions. Chairez has been geting better, and should take advantage of any chance he gets.
Martinez / Bahamondes / Fiorot Parlay @ 2.02
David Martinez is a solid striker with power. He has a solid mix of strikes and with Dan Ige moving down in weight, the chance of a finish is there. He should be the faster fighter and will land at a much higher clip over three rounds.
Ignacio Bahamondes got a little screwed in his last fight, but he gets the aging Muslim Salikov in this. He should be able to finsh the fight, but we’ll go the safe route in case it’s a beatdown for three rounds where he’s the younger, fresher, and more active fighter.
Everyone loves Alexa Grasso, but this could be one of her toughest matchups. Fiorot showed out against Valentina Shevchenko, and her solid mix of kicks and punches separates her in this one. She should be able to keep her distance and frustrate Grasso from the outside. A couple takedowns should secure the victory.
UFC Noche has a solid mix of big names, Mexican talent, and incredible matchups. Across the board, the fights should be exciting, violent, and full of action. It feels like every fight on the card pushes a strong pace with high volume. Even without the belts or top-ranked fighters, this should be a fantastic card.
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