UFC Vancouver delivered in many ways. Not only did Brendan Allen prove he belongs at the top of the UFC middleweight ladder, but plenty of underdogs made their mark.
As for the SlotsFighter family, UFC Vancouver was one of the most profitable cards so far this year. Despite losing the chalk parlay in a big way, we still brought home +2.33 Units and are now sitting at +15.0475 Units so far this year. Even though we didn’t start at the beginning of the year, we’re hoping to finish the year strong with a great run of winning bets.
The UFC heads back to Abu Dhabi for UFC 321. The UFC title will finally be on the line when Tom Aspinall defends his belt against Ciryl Gane, and Virna Jandiroba will take on Mackenzie for the strawweight title. Let’s take a look at the entire main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC 321 best bets.
UFC 321 MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Aleksander Rakic
1.95
1.86
Azamat Murzakanov
This is an important fight for both Aleksander Rakic and Azamat Murzakanov for two completely different reasons. While Rakic is on the worst losing streak of his career and at risk of going 0-4, Murzakanov is getting his first taste of top-tier UFC talent. He’s 15-0 and already 36 years old, but Murzakanov’s UFC run has been impressive.
Rakic’s 0-3 run is against the best light heavyweights in the world. He suffered a leg injury against Jan Blachowicz, was doing well against Jiri Prochazka before getting finished, and lost to the previous champion, Magomed Ankalaev, via decision. His best performances have been against aging fighters, but he’s still 6-4 in the UFC. He’s in a new camp for UFC 321 and has promised to show a new version of himself.
Murzakanov is taking a massive leap in competition here, and it will come down to how well he can manage his cardio. He’s gone to a decision once with Dustin Jacoby, but Rakic will fight with a bit more power and versatility in his strikes. In the past, he’s been a finisher in the first two rounds, but if that doesn’t happen, the third round should be competitive. The major takeaway from Rakic’s losses is he doesn’t get finished by flash knockout power, but more so from consistent volume.
This is one of the more exciting light heavyweight matchups and should deliver.
Alexander Volkov
2.85
1.44
Jailton Almeida
Alexander Volkov against Jailton Almeida is a heavyweight version of striker vs. grappler. Volkov is well-known for his technical kickboxing and ability to dominate on the feet, but he gets an absolute mauler on the ground. Almeida continues to have success against top-tier UFC talent and now looks to get closer to a title shot.
Almeida’s UFC run hasn’t been perfect. He started 5-0, but got knocked out by Curtis Blaydes. Since then, he’s 2-0 with two first round finishes, but Volkov is much better than both fighters. Almeida’s path to victory is fundamentally based on how well he can execute his grappling game plan. He’s not going to win the striking battles against Volkov, especially with the Russian’s lengthy style, but getting in close range and making it dirty is his best chance to get it to the ground.
Is the price too wide here? Volkov is coming off a split-decision loss to Gane where many thought he won the fight.
The fact is, he was in a close battle with the current number one contender, and if he can keep the fight standing, this seems almost too easy of a victory for him. With that said, keeping the fight standing will be tough, but if Volkov can land early volume, this could be far more competitive than the odds suggest.
Umar Nurmagomedov
1.16
5.55
Mario Bautista
Umar Nurmagomedov comes in as the biggest favorite at UFC 321. After losing a close title fight to Merab Dvalishvili, he now gets what some would consider a “tune-up” fight against Mario Bautista. If you has Bautista, though, he’s ready for his own shot at the champion.
Bautista is on a nice run in the UFC. He’s 8-0 since his last loss and derailed the UFC debut of Patchy Mix in a big way. Fans were hard on him after his close win over Jose Aldo, but the fact is, he did enough to win the fight. Against Nurmagomedov, it will be a lot harder to dominate the feet or the ground.
Nurmagomedov’s striking is his best asset, even though he comes from a solid sambo background. He was able to keep it competitive with Cory Sandhagen and the current champion, where both guys represent tough tests in the striking and wrestling department, respectively. The pressure combined with the striking will be Numargomedov’s biggest ticket to victory. If he can keep Bautista on his back foot, while threatening the wrestling offense, it will be hard for Bautista to find his timing.
Bautista looked great in his two previous fights but they were great matchups. He was a much better wrestler than Aldo and used that to his advantage. Against Mix, he was one step ahead in the striking department, and kept it standing the entire fight. Against Nurmagomedov, it will be tough to use his wrestling to stall, and it will be even tougher to dominate the boxing exchanges. His best chance is to make it a brawl, get inside boxing range, and try to threaten level changes to land bigger shots. His path to victory is slim, but we’ve seen crazier things in the UFC.
Virna Jandiroba
2.30
1.64
Mackenzie Dern
Mackenzie Dern opened as the underdog but the lines have shifted drastically in her favour. Looking at her record, it’s quite surprising to see her fighting for a title. Even though she’s already beaten Virna Jandiroba, she’s lost to two fighters ranked above her and hasn’t really been on an impressive run. At the same time, she’s on a 2-0 streak and beat Amanda Ribas with a solid armbar. The fact is, the UFC knows there’s a marketing edge with Dern as champion, and they’re happy to give her a shot at the title.
Mackenzie Dern vs Virna Jandiroba 1 | FULL FIGHT | UFC 321
Jandiroba is far more proven heading into her title fight. After Zhang Weili relinquished the belt to move up in weight, Jandiroba is the most deserving fighter for a title shot. She’s on a five-fight win streak since losing to Ribas, and has beaten some of the more experienced fighters on the roster. On top of that, her most recent win over Xiaonan Yan is the most impressive. While she’s not the biggest finisher, her grappling is elite, and she’s improving on the feet.
This fight will be a test of who has the more improved striking, and who has the overall better ground game. Whoever gets the top position the most should have the best chance at winning the fight. If the fight stays standing, at first glance, Dern should have the edge, but Jandiroba could make this a brawl and find her spots on the feet as well. While Dern should be better at distance, Jandiroba should try and close the distance and threaten takedowns as much as possible. If she can force Dern to fight on the inside, it’s her best path to victory.
Tom Aspinall
1.27
3.85
Ciryl Gane
With all the Jon Jones drama put to rest, the two best heavyweights are set to do battle. While Tom Aspinall is slowly becoming one of the greatest heavyweights ever, Gane’s technical striking makes him a dangerous fighter against anyone. While Gane should operate on the outside better, Aspinall’s boxing is just as good, and maintaining that close boxing range should be his primary goal.
The most interesting part about this fight is how dominant Aspinall can be on the ground. We saw Jones end Gane quite easily when he got the chance to lock up a submission, and Aspinall’s grappling is the most underrated part of his game. If he gets Gane to the ground, he might be able to keep him there. We’ve rarely seen Gane’s grappling, even though he has submission victories on his record. This is a completely different beast.
UFC 321 BEST BETS
Nasrat Haqparast to Win @ 1.95
This is a look at the more experienced fighter, one of the better looks lately in the UFC. We’re getting a solid price on Nasrat Haqparast, who has plenty of UFC experience and a much more versatile striking arsenal. Salkilld has looked good against lesser competition, but this is a massive step up against a tough opponent.
Aleksander Rakic to Win @ 1.86
This is a similar play to the last bet, but Rakic is going from title contenders to a 15-0 Azamat Murzakanov. He has solid leg kicks and good power, and he should gain an edge as the fight progresses. Murzakanov is a heavy-handed striker, but his cardio is always in question. If Rakic can last the early onslaught, this is a solid look at a much more experienced UFC fighter.
Virna Jandiroba to Win @ 2.24 (0.5 Units)
Mackenzie Dern’s striking has gotten a lot better, but Virna Jandiroba has also improved. If she can hang on the feet, she has a good chance of being able to outwork Dern over five rounds. She opened as the favorite, but Dern has gotten all the action and is now the favorite. Not a bad look for a true title hopeful.
Nathaniel Wood to Win @ 2.24 (0.5 Units)
This is one of the better underdog looks on the card. Wood has more UFC fights than Jose Delgado has fights. Since moving up in weight, Wood has never lost a third round and looks like a completely different fighter. The weight cut was surely the biggest issue, but he’s looked incredible against rising challengers in the UFC.
Amorim-Inoue Fight to Go the Distance @ 2.40 (0.5 Units)
Even though Jaqueline Amorim is a solid grappler, Mizuki Inoue has survived against fighters like Virna Jandiroba. At this price, we’re basically hoping a WMMA goes the distance. It’s a good look.
Aspinall / Walker / Maksum Parlay @ 1.98 (0.5 Units)
Aspinall should be better in every aspect against Gane. The most troublesome look will be at kicking distance, especially due to injury, but Aspinall is a solid boxer and should have a massive advantage on the ground.
Valter Walker is getting better with every fight and looks great against lesser competition. He now gets a relatively newcomer in Louie Sutherland. He should have an advantage on the ground, and if he gets Sutherland down, it’s only a matter of time.
Azat Maksum is the most concerning leg of this parlay, but he’s had good volume and should be able to out-strike Mitch Raposo on the feet. He should also have a speed advantage on the feet, along with the striking versatility.
There’s a reason why the betting lines are so wide. Aspinall is one of the most well-rounded heavyweights we’ve seen in years, and we’ve also seen that Gane can be beaten with the right gameplan. The same can’t be said for Aspinall. His only loss is via injury, and he redeemed that loss with ease. If this fight stays in boxing range, or if it looks like Aspinall can control the fight on the ground, it should be a one-sided title fight unless Gane can take advantage of his spots, primarily in kickboxing range.
UFC 321 is pretty stacked and for good reason. While it is still a PPV, the prelims will be aired on ESPN+, Disney+, and FX. The UFC has gone out of its way to book some exciting fights, and they should deliver. Since the card takes place in Abu Dhabi, don’t forget to check your local listings for accurate timing and television provider. As always, don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC 321 best bets on SlotsFighter.com.
