Fight Night in Philly: Islam Makhachev Defends His Belt Against Ian Garry at UFC 330

UFC Vegas 120 was another successful card for us. Even though it wasn’t massive, we still walked away with +1.245 Units after going 3-3 on bets, and now sit at +11.79 Units on the year. We have some ground to make up, but we’re on an insane run of +17.13 Units on the last five UFC cards.

The UFC heads to Philadelphia for UFC 330, where Islam Makhachev defends his welterweight title against Ian Garry. In the co-main event, Mackenzie Dern defends her title against Gillian Robertson. This card has some fantastic matchups and fun fights. Let’s get into the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC 330 best bets.

UFC 330 Main Card Breakdown

Edson Barboza

5.00

1.18

Esteban Ribovics

Edson Barboza is a long-time fan favorite, but he’s on the tail-end of his career. His last three fights have been a tough watch, and Jalin Turner knocked him out last time out in the first round. He’s 18-14 in the UFC, and will always be remembered for his incredible kicking game and heart. He’s taken plenty of beatings and come back for unbelievable wins, but age is catching up to him. He’s a solid kickboxer with well-rounded skills, but the durability and cardio will continue to be his downfall as he closes out his illustrious UFC career.

Esteban Ribovics got submitted by Mateusz Gamrot last time out, but it was his first taste of the top-tier UFC talent. He’s 4-3 in the UFC with solid wins on his record. He’s never been knocked out, is extremely durable, and can finish anywhere. He’s a high-volume striker who gets into wars, but his ability to push the pace is what makes him dangerous offensively.

It’s hard to back Barboza at this point of his career, but he always has a striker’s chance. He’s versatile on the feet and can find a finishing blow when he weathers the early storm. The problem here is Ribovics should push a heavy pace, and he will land early in the fight. Ribovics lands at a 7.27 strikes per minute rate, while Barboza is just 4.14. If this fight gets into the third round, and Barboza can avoid serious damage, he has a chance to pull off the upset, but it’s just hard to see him weathering the storm early in the fight.      

Mansur Abdul-Malik

1.16

5.55

Dustin Stoltzfus

Mansur Abdul-Malik was flying high till he fought Yousri Belgaroui. He lost via knees in the third round, and he was completely outworked on the feet and gassed as the fight went on. His previous wins looked good, but they weren’t against good competition. The UFC has brought him along conservatively, and he’s 3-1-1 with the promotion. He’s a great athlete with good wrestling, and legitimate power. His biggest test will always be against the more technical fighters who can take him into deep waters.

Dustin Stoltzfus is on the hot seat. He’s 2-3 in his last five and 3-7 in the UFC. His last two losses are via decision, but they came against Kelvin Gastelum and Nursulton Ruziboev where he had some good moments. He’s a well-rounded fighter with a good ground game, but he takes far too much damage and can be caught early in fights. He’s mostly struggled against solid veterans or highly-skilled up-and-coming fighters, which makes him dangerous against some of the more inexperienced talent.

This is a competitive fight from a skills perspective. Yes, the betting line is wide, but Stoltzfus rarely gets respect from the sportsbooks. In this case, Abdul-Malik could finish him early and look like a world-beater, but if this gets into the later rounds, Stoltzfus’ well-roundedness and toughness could be a massive shift in momentum. Abdul-Malik should try to get the fight to the ground and work his ground-and-pound. He should be able to soften him up and land far more powerful strikes. Stoltzfus can make this a fight by weathering the storm, finding spots to do damage, and make Abdul-Malik work in the clinch. The later this fight goes, the closer it will get.

Charles Johnson

3.80

1.28

Jose Ochoa

Charles Johnson continues to have his moments in the UFC, but the consistency is his biggest problem. He’s 2-3 in his last five UFC fight and 8-7 overall with the promotion. He got suloev stretched in the third round last time out against Asu Almabayev, but won a split decision before that against Bruno Silva. His biggest win was against prospect Lone’er Kavanagh in a comeback knockout win. He’s big for the flyweight division and has solid power, but he struggles with the grappling exchanges and needs to put the foot on the gas for all three rounds.

Jose Ochoa is 2-2 in the UFC. He also lost to Almabayev, and lost to Kavanagh in his debut. His best win was against Cody Durden where he finished him in the second round, and he most recently beat Clayton Carpenter via decision. He threw 153 significant strikes against Carpenter, showing off his high-volume striking and solid cardio. He’s just 25 years old, 9-2 overall, and is an exciting prospect for the UFC.

Johnson usually has a size difference at flyweight and this is no different. He’ll have a three-inch reach advantage and should use his low kicks and lead strikes well. The biggest thing for Johnson is to start fast out the gate, because Ochoa will not back down. If Johnson gets behind on the scorecards early, he’ll be playing catch-up against a fighter who will continue to push a high pace. The grappling on either side could be a difference maker in a close striking battle, but if this fight gets into the third round, it could go either way.    

Mackenzie Dern

1.43

2.90

Gillian Robertson

Mackenzie Dern is the biggest benefactor of Zhang Weili moving up in weight. She dominated the division, cleared out the top contenders, and relinquished the belt. Dern fought for the vacant title and beat Virna Jandiroba via decision last time out. She’s an elite grappler with the best bottom game in the division, and her striking has come a long way. She’s not the most accurate or the most defensive, but she pushes forward and tries to land the bigger shots.

Gillian Robertson has earned her way to the top of the food chain. She’s 14-6 in the UFC but is riding a six-fight win streak, with her last loss coming in 2023. Even though she came into the UFC as a grappler, her single-leg has improved with her overall wrestling, and her ground-and-pound is also more effective. Her boxing is also getting better, and she’s able to set up her takedowns well. While she hasn’t submitted someone in seven fights, her aggressiveness is turning her into a real contender.

It’s hard to pick any grappler against Dern. She’s extremely creative from bad spots and her transitions are the best in the division. Her best path to victory is to use her wild striking to set up takedowns, and work her magic from top position. For Robertson, it’s all about doing damage, making Dern work off the backfoot, and timing her takedowns well. Robertson is the better defensive striker, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her get the better of the striking exchanges. She’ll always be in danger of losing position on the ground, but her ground-and-pound is her best asset right now. This could turn into a close fight, but the betting line on Dern makes sense.         

Islam Makhachev

1.29

3.70

Ian Machado Garry

Islam Makhachev hasn’t fought since November, when he beat Jack Della Maddalena in a dominant decision. His striking has improved over the years, and we’ve seen some power as well. His wrestling and grappling are elite, and he always finds ways to win. He works well in the clinch, has shown a solid kicking game, and is always active on the ground. There’s no doubt he’s the current pound-for-pound best fighter in the UFC, but this fight will be his toughest to date.

Ian Garry is a real contender in the welterweight division. Even though he lost to Shavkat Rakhmonov in a close decision, he’s consistently taken on the division’s best and looked good doing it. He showed off his footwork against Carlos Prates. He was hard to hit and was the far better technical striker. The same can be said for his fight against Belal Muhammad. He was able to avoid the control game and continues to show his technical skills on the feet. He’s tall, fights long, and uses range extremely well.

Garry has a real chance to pull off the upset here. The betting line seems a little too wide, simply based on his ability to always be the better technical striker at range and is hard to keep on the ground. Makhachev will keep his pressure game going, but will need to be aware of the strikes coming back. Garry is creative and has a far better arsenal on the feet. In the clinch, Makhachev should have an advantage fight against the fence and on the ground. Regardless of who wins, the betting line is wide, and all signs point to a close decision win for either fighter.       

UFC 330 Best Bets

2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units

2026 Record: 58-68-1, +10.545 Units

(Coming soon…)

UFC 330 is one of the best cards in weeks, with solid matchups from top to bottom. With two title fights and solid contenders on the main card, it’s a solid change of pace from last week’s card. The prelims also feature a solid mix of veterans and up-and-coming fighters, which should lead to exciting fights.

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