UFC Abu Dhabi was a dog day afternoon. The books got it completely wrong on most of the event, but we managed to come away with a little profit. We went up by +1.775 units and are now sitting at +10.45.
The UFC heads back to the UFC Apex for the first time in a while, with Tatsuro Taira taking on Hyun Sung Park. The card doesn’t carry the biggest names, but there are plenty of exciting matchups.
This will be a tough card to find great betting spots, but we’ll do our best to find value later in the week. For now, let’s take a look at the main card for UFC Vegas 108 and be sure to check back later in the week for our best bets.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Tatsuro Taira
1.26
3.95
Hyun Sung Park
Taira was in a position where he took on a top contender in Brandon Royval last time out and came up short. Royval is a tough matchup for a grappler. He throws with volume and has sound defensive grappling to keep the fight standing. There was also a major difference in cardio, which forced Taira to fight desperately. Even with the lackluster performance, Taira is an elite grappler with solid pressure.
Will Park have enough to make it two losses in a row for Taira? He’s on a roll in the UFC, but the odds suggest this is too much too fast. He did well on the Road to UFC and is 3-0 in the UFC with three finishes. He finished Shannon Ross with a liver shot, but most of his elite performances are submission wins.
With this being a battle of good grapplers, it’s hard to steer away from Taira, but Park is making all the right moves. This will come down to who can survive the grappling exchanges and make the most of their dominant positions.
Mateusz Rebecki
1.48
2.70
Chris Duncan
Mateusz Rebecki will be remembered for his fight of the year candidate win last time out against Myktybek Orolbai. He pulled off a miraculous comeback and secured a big split decision win. He’s 4-1 in the UFC and will now get Chris Ducan in a co-main event spot.
Funny enough, Duncan is 4-1 in the UFC as well, but needed two Contender Series fights to make it to the UFC. His last two wins have been via guillotine chokes, but he only has three submission wins in his career. He’s been finished by knockout and submission as well, and has an overall record of 13-2.
Rebecki is 20-2 and has only lost by knockout, but after the last fight, it’s difficult to see him losing via strikes unless he fights someone truly elite. In this case, this could be a solid back-and-forth with both guys having their moments, but Rebecki is coming into his own and has never lost a decision. In a kill-or-be-killed situation, Rebecki has proven to be a force and Duncan will have an uphill battle if he can’t find the early finish.
Elves Brener
3.20
1.37
Esteban Ribovics
This is a great matchup of two guys who have shown solid skill at the UFC level.
Elves Brener started his UFC career 3-0 but lost his last two against good competition. Losing to Joel Alvarez via finish is a respectable loss, but it’ll be three losses in a row if he loses to Esteban Ribovics. He’ll need to find ways to implement his grappling game to avoid Ribovics solid technical striking.
Ribovics is a well-rounded fighter. He’s 3-2 in the UFC and has never been finished. His most recent loss to Nasrat Haqparast was a split decision, and it proved that he is a solid striker and is improving with time.
This should be a stand up war with Brener looking to change levels to utilize his grappling. Brener is a chute boxe veteran and is willing to take one to give one. Ribovics needs to avoid the brawling and grappling while sticking to a more technical striking battle. The odds suggest that the technical striker has a significant edge, but if Brener survives the striking and can work in his grappling, it’ll be closer than the line suggests.
Karol Rosa
1.54
2.54
Nora Cornolle
Karol Rosa is a fun fighter to watch. She’s always looking to land big and has solid volume for WMMA. She’s a good striker, can defend the clinch well and avoids the ground in most of her fights.
If anyone’s landing a takedown in this fight, it’s probably Rosa. The striking battle could be competitive, but based on Cornolle’s recent success, it’ll come down to the matchup. Cornolle has a +1.16 striking differential with just 1.91 strikes absorbed with 62% defense. She doesn’t look for takedowns and has just a 55% so far. She’s 3-1 in the UFC and the Jacqueline Calvacanti split loss is aging well. If Rosa isn’t able to keep her guessing on the feet and mix it up well, Cornolle could surprise with a big win.
Rosa’s issue as a striker is she can fall into the trap of being one dimensional and takes plenty of damage. She has a 49% striking defense with 4.84 striking absorbed. If Cornolle can find her timing and land consistent combos, Rosa will be forced to mix it up if she wants to win this fight.
Even though the lines are wide, there is a path to victory for both women, but it will completely depend on where the fight takes place and who can take advantage of meaningful moments.
Neil Magny
2.64
1.50
Elizeu Zaleski
In a battle of almost-40-year olds, Neil Magny and Elizeu Zaleski are hoping to stay in the UFC ranks with a big win. While Magny has been fighting the division’s best, Zaleski most recently lost to Chidi Njokuani via strikes.
Magny has incredible UFC experience on his side, but this fight will come down to mixing in his wrestling and finding ways to land big shots on the ground. His chin has suffered a great deal of damage, and Zaleski’s most significant path to victory should be finishing the fight on the feet. He’s got solid power and 15 knockout victories in his career.
With a combined 51 UFC fights, Magny and Zaleski have the experience to pull off the victory with a good gameplan. Based on both fighters’ strengths, it will be tough to see Magny winning a major striking battle, but he could wrestle his way to a dominant decision win against Zaleski, especially if Zaleski is fatigued over three rounds. This could be an underrated fight between veterans, or an embarrassingly short contest.
Danny Silva
4.10
1.25
Kevin Vallejos
MMA bettors absolutely loved Kevin Vallejos last time out. After posting to Twitter/X that he’ll be trying his best to end the fight early, he did exactly that in the first round. He’s got power in his hands and is already becoming a prospect with a spotlight.
Does Danny Silva have the skills to pull off a surprise win? Both guys only have one career loss, and Vallejos will have a slight size disadvantage. Both guys average a combined 14.84 strikes per minute which suggests an early finish or a grueling battle on the feet. Both guys have only lost via decision which is a solid testament to their finishing ability.
Both guys have such limited UFC experience that it’s hard to pick between the two, but given their exposure and recent success, public bettors were all over Vallejos. Will it be the same outcome? There is a chance this fight is far more competitive than the line suggest, but after watching Vallejo’ s recent fight, it’s hard to pick between the two. This should be a competitive fight where the price tags don’t line up with the outcome.
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BETS
(all bets 1 Unit unless specified)
Rebecki / Ribovics / Vallejos to Win @ 2.50 (0.5 Units)
Some of our only losses over the last few weeks have been parlays, but we’ll take one more shot here with three strong favorites with respectable parlay lines.
Rebecki took the necessary time off after an incredible fight and should have an edge in the striking department. If he avoids the ground and hits with power, he should be able to hurt Duncan enough to win minutes and maybe even finish the fight.
Ribovics is a great striker, and we’re basically dodging a good takedown game from Brener to avoid any submission attempts. If this fight stays standing, it’s hard to see Ribovics losing this fight.
Lastly, Vallejos is one of the most talked about prospects heading into UFC Vegas 108. While people will be leaning on the finishing line, we will lean on him just to get the win. If he can’t finish, the other path to victory is a dominant, volume-based striking clinic.
Rebecki / Taira @ 1.86 (1.5 Units)
This is a look at two of the better fighters on the card with good matchups. We have already discussed Rebecki, and Taira is getting a short notice from Park, who is taking a massive leap in competition. At first glance, Park looks like a solid opponent, but there are levels to this, and Taira should be able to dominate the grappling exchanges and control the fight for as long as it lasts.
Neil Magny to Win @ 2.64
Magny has been fighting the best fighters in the division and now gets a winnable fight against the 38-year-old Elizeu Zaleski. While we are dodging a big knockout early in the fight, if this fight gets past the first round, it’s hard to see Magny losing. He has always been good at staying competitive as the fight goes on, and Zaleski’s 68% takedown defense tells me Magny has a chance to exploit that by using his wrestling. With a 7-inch reach advantage and a solid path to victory, it’s a good time to ride the more experienced yet younger veteran.
Taira by Submission @ 2.50
Not many spots I love, but Taira should rebound here. He gets a short notice fighter who hasn’t been past the third round, and should get tired as the fight goes on. It may not happen early, but Taira should be able to finish at some point of the five rounds.
UFC Vegas 108 doesn’t have many stars, but it’s a solid card with exciting matchups. There are some spots with ranking implications, and it would be great to add fresh blood to some of the UFC’s weaker divisions. With our main card breakdown out of our way, be sure to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC Vegas 109.
