UFC London had mixed reviews and even worse judging scoreboards. While they didn’t drastically affect our overall performance, we still went down by 0.53 units for a total of +5.38 units over the previous five weeks. Not too shabby for just getting our feet wet.
The big takeaways are that the parlays may have been smaller units, Pat Sabatini deserved a higher confidence level, and Torrez Finney is far from a UFC finisher at the UFC level. While UFC London was a card to forget, UFC 314 is an absolute banger.
Let’s look at the main card before diving into our best bets later this week.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes
Nikita KrylovNikita Krylov
1.50
2.64
Dominick Reyes
In an interesting fight to kick off the main card, Nikita Krylov will test Dominick Reyes’ versatility in a big way. Krylov has a pretty good chin and can force Reyes into uncomfortable positions on the ground. The line suggests that this fight won’t stay standing because that’s Reyes’ best chance of winning. He’s always had solid striking, but working off his back and getting to his feet are imperative for his success in a three-round fight. This is an important fight for Reyes, especially after his recent rant about his fight with Jon Jones. You know Jones will be watching to clap back if things don’t go Reyes’ way.
Krylov’s ground and pound will be his best weapon. He can hold his own on the feet and maybe even find a finish, but control and damage over three rounds seems like a good gameplan to avoid some of Reyes’ boxing power. Reyes’ 82% takedown defense and wrestling will be tested, but if it stays standing, Reyes can steal the fight.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva
Bryce Mitchell
3.15
1.37
Jean Silva
Bryce Mitchell has been making headlines for all the wrong reasons and was booed excessively at the previous press conference. Given what’s in front of him, some of his Instagram rants have been outrageous. Jean Silva has been climbing the ranks and earning the respect of the fans. His fights have gone from competitive to impressive to dominant. The level of opponent has grown over time, and now he gets a solid grappler with improving striking.
Mitchell’s ability to avoid the big shots, dictate the pace, and choose where the fight goes will determine his success. If he fights Silva’s normal gameplan, we might see another devastating finish. Silva will be fast, hungry, and he’s definitely in Mitchell’s head already. This will be an uphill battle, but for everyone’s sake, Mitchell understands what’s at stake and keeps it competitive.
Yair Rodriguez vs Patricio Pitbull
Yair Rodriguez
1.50
2.64
Patricio Pitbull
line between Yair Rodriguez and Patricio Pitbull seems too wide. Rodriguez is an exciting striker with good offensive instincts, but he has faltered defensively and durability-wise in precious fights. Pitbull comes in from the PFL/Bellator promotion but was at the top of the food chain. He’s a previous champion, a perennial title challenger, and a big reason for Bellator’s relative success.
Is Pitbull underrated in this fight? In his previous fights, big power punchers and extremely technical fighters were the ones who got the best of him. This fight comes down to how much you believe that Rodriguez has the technical skill to outpoint Pitbull if he can’t find one of his patented finishes. Pitbull will be a massive size disadvantage, but he’s been there before. The real question is, can he work through the range of Rodriguez, avoid the big kicks, and find some of his big shots? Incorporating close-range boxing and takedowns will be his best path to victory.
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett
Michael Chandler
2.24
1.67
Paddy Pimblett
If you haven’t seen the UFC Countown for UFC 314, it’s a must-watch. It takes you deep into the four fighters fighting in the main events, and it’s a proper representation of how serious all four athletes are taking these fights.
Michael Chandler has something to prove. He’s been given top-tier fights throughout his UFC career but now he plays a gatekeeper to the fastest rising lightweight, Paddy Pimblett. Chandler expressed a few points that matter in his approach. He addressed that he’s trained for more five-round fights than Paddy has fights, which is true. That experience cannot be bought or practiced, it’s simply earned. If there’s an edge anywhere in this fight for Chandler, it’s that. He packs a punch, has always had good wrestling, and his grappling has kept him out of enough dangerous positions. That will come in handy against Pimblett.
Pimblett recently became a father, and his demeanor seems completely different. He seems far more serious about his upcoming fight and took his camp seriously. As much as he jokes about Chandler’s one-liners and style of fights, he understands this is a major opportunity against a true veteran of the sport that can propel him into the UFC title picture. Similar to previously discussed fights, Chandler’s experience and strengths in this fight make the price hard to digest. However, if Paddy pulls off a big win, he will be well on his way to the top of the lightweight ladder.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
Alexander Volkanovski
1.80
2.05
Diego Lopes
This is one of those few times the people’s main event is the main event. Whether it’s all the Alexander Volkanovski fans dictating the price of the fight or not, Diego Lopes deserved to be a little closer in value. He’s a fast starter with an incredible BJJ background but packs a punch early in fights. With how Volkanovski fights have ended recently, the first few rounds will be edge-of-your-seat energy. Will Volkanovski survive?
Similar to Chandler against Pimblett, Volkanovski’s experience and understanding of what goes into five-round fights are major advantages. Volkanovski would need to survive the first few rounds to gain his confidence back. If his strikes aren’t working and Lopes picks up quick steam, changing levels or switching things up quickly will matter in a fight where you hope the opponent loses gas. The fact is, we’re going to see the absolute best versions of both fighters, and all we can do is predict based on what we’ve seen and analyze what we’ve got, but don’t be surprised by any ending in this one.
UFC 314 BEST BETS
(All bets 1 Unit unless stated)
Nora Cornolle to Win / Marco Tulio Silva to Win Parlay @ 1.94 (1.5 Units)
The story is out on how tumultuous this camp was for Hailey Cowan. With all the drama and the significant skill difference between Nora Cornolle and Cowan, Cornolle has solid value in winning this fight.
Marco Tulio Silva is a good grappler with power in his hands. Tresean Gore has had success with his grappling, but it’s challenging to see lock something up against Silva. If this fight goes to the judges’ scorecards, Silva has the edge to win this fight.
Fight Doesn’t go the Distance Parlay: Dumas vs. Oleksiejczuk / Krylov vs. Reyes @ 2.14
Michal Oleksiejczuk has solid boxing and will push the pace to find the finish. If he can’t do it early, Dumas could take advantage as the fight progresses and find a submission of his own. With both guys having a chance to finish, this is a solid look.
Nikita Krylov has been away for two years, but even now, he packs underrated power against the questionable chin of Dominick Reyes. At the same time, Reyes has a slick left hand and could find a finish of his own if he gets his hands going without taking damage.
Dan Ige by KO @ 4.50 (0.25 Units)
Dan Ige will have to work hard to get inside Sean Woodson’s reach. If he gets it done early, he’s got more than enough power to end the fight. Also, this is likely his best path to victory. At a big number and plenty of history in finishing fights early, getting Ige by KO at a pretty good discount after his fights against top guys makes it a perfect sprinkle.
Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull – Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance @ 2.05 (0.5 Units)
Yair Rodriguez is known for his powerful kicks and exceptional creativity on the feet. Patricio Pitbull has been rocked several times in his recent fights, even in his wins, and lost via devastating KO in RIZIN. On the flip side, Pitbull has some power of his own, and also has a mean guillotine. If he can get inside the range of Rodriguez, he too can have his way and look for a finish. We’re getting solid plus money where both guys can finish.
UFC 314 is a solid card with big names, solid prospects, and exciting matchups that should produce fireworks. Keep it locked to SlotsFighter.com for the best bets later in the week.
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