Last year was incredible for the SlotsFighter.com UFC betting article. We started in March, ended the year with +5.49 Units at UFC Vegas 112, and finished with a total of +29.97 Units on the year. We hit our first longshot parlay in a while on the last card of the year. We’ll try to keep the good times rolling in 2026, and it starts with UFC 324.
UFC 324 features Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett with title implications. Pimblett has been climbing the ranks while Gaethje has been a mainstay at the top of the lightweight division. In the co-main event, Sean O’Malley makes his return against Yadong Song in a wide-open bantamweight division. Let’s take a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC 324.
UFC 324 MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Arnold Allen
3.25
1.35
Jean Silva
At first glance, that’s a big number on Arnold Allen. He’s proven to be a solid fighter with good striking and durability. He’s 20-3 overall, 11-2 in the UFC, with his only two UFC losses coming against Max Hollway and Movsar Evloev via decision. However, he didn’t fight in 2025 and is going into a fight against a surging star, Jean Silva.
Silva is just 5-1 in the UFC, but his fights have been exciting and dominant. Last time out, he lost to Diego Lopes. There was a significant technical difference, and his aggressiveness ultimately worked against him. Lopes’ boxing has improved drastically, and it showed against Silva. Before that, Silva was on a five-fight UFC win streak and finished all five fights. He possesses solid power and good grappling skills, which make him a dangerous opponent everywhere. He’s been training hard for this fight and looks primed for a comeback in 2026.
“HE’S THE REAL DEAL!” 👏 All of Jean Silva’s finishes In the #UFC so far 🔥
Allen has never been finished. Two of his losses came against two solid wrestlers, and he was out-paced and out-volumed against Holloway. In this fight, the volume and the threat of the submission could be the difference. Silva will push forward and maintain a high pace. Allen is a good defensive fighter, but this will be a constant battle of avoiding the power punches from Silva and avoiding the ground. Without much finishing upside, Silva looks to have the upper hand in every area and should be able to get it done.
Natalia Silva
1.24
4.20
Rose Namajunas
Judging by the betting lines, it’s clear that Natalia Silva is on the rise as a big title contender in the UFC. She’s 7-0 in the UFC and is coming off an incredible performance against former champion Alexa Grasso. She landed 65 significant strikes and was the better striker against an elite boxer. Her footwork is incredible, her poise is on point, and her ability to land at the right time is how she’s able to pull off dominant wins.
Rose Namajunas is approaching the end of her career, but she’s been competitive against good competition. She just beat Miranda Maverick via decision and is 3-1 since 2024. She fights long, continues to be durable, but is always at risk of a dull performance. Her last two wins were determined by her wrestling prowess, and it might be her best path to victory against Silva.
Silva’s 92% takedown defense is a big deal in this fight. She should have the advantage on the feet, and if Namajunas can’t get the fight to the ground, it’s hard to see this fight stay close in the striking department. Both fighters like to stay on the outside and bounce in and out, but Silva’s counters have been on point, and it could be hard for Namajunas to find her range. The line is wide based on experience, but Silva is unquestionably a title contender and has proven to be a problem on the feet against everyone so far.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
1.30
3.60
Derrick Lewis
With all the activity criticism in MMA, Waldo Cortes-Acosta has been a good example of staying active. He’s fought eight times in the past two years and went 4-1 in 2025. His only loss was against Sergei Pavlovich where his boxing wasn’t enough to solve the Russian puzzle. Outside of that loss, Cortes-Acosta had three finishes and won performance bonuses in his previous two fights against Ante Delija and Shamil Gaziev. His volume is going up, his power is coming along, and now he gets the knockout king, Derrick Lewis.
Lewis is a UFC legend at this point with his underdog wins and massive KO finishes, but he’s at the tail-end of his career. He struggles with the top-tier talent and is coming off a controversial KO win over Tallison Teixeira. He’s only fought twice since 2024, but won both fights, and now gets a much tougher test. Lewis was quoted as saying that the UFC provided him with peptides and he’s in the best shape of his life, but Jeff Novitzky shut that down immediately, saying that it’s a third-party substance that is allowed under the UFC anti-doping policy.
While Lewis always has a puncher’s chance, Cortes-Acosta has been durable and has solid boxing. He works at length and uses his reach well. His goal will be to avoid the close boxing range where he could get countered, use his jab, and find ways to tire Lewis. As the fight goes on, Cortes-Acosta should continue to increase his chance of winning. With all that said, Lewis confirming he’s in the best shape of his life helps the fact that you can never count him out.
Sean O’Malley
1.48
2.70
Song Yadong
Sean O’Malley makes his long-awaited return to the UFC after losing back-to-back title fights to Merab Dvalishvili. He last fought in June 2025 and took the necessary time off to recalibrate. Despite all the jokes and social media antics, O’Malley and Tim Welch are elite students of the game and took the necessary steps to use the time well. They’ve been working on the mental side of the game as much as the physical side, and we should see a fired-up O’Malley ready to put on a show.
Song Yadong hasn’t been the most active fighter over the past two years, but he’s exciting and durable. He’s 3-1 since 2023, with his loss to Petr Yan aging like fine wine. He knocked out Ricky Simon in the fifth round, beat Chris Gutierrez via decision, and won against Henry Cejudo. Looking at his record, though, this is by far his hardest fight. He fought Cory Sandhagen back in 2022 and lost the fight via doctor stoppage. Volume strikers with good boxing tend to get the best of him.
With O’Malley’s time off, the line opened at 1.52 and is now down to 1.48, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the line continue to move. He’s the better volume striker, has a 5-inch reach advantage, and lands 61% of his strikes. The best path to victory for Yadong is wrestling and grappling, but we’ve never seen much from him in that department. He likes to stand and bang and make the fight exciting, which should work against him against O’Malley. On top of that, O’Malley has a 60% striking defense after fighting some of the best bantamweights in the world. With the time off, the massive advantages on the feet, it’s hard to go against O’Malley to get back on the winning track.
Justin Gaethje
2.90
1.43
Paddy Pimblett
Justin Gaethje continues to be one of the most exciting fighters on the UFC roster. Even though he’s coming close to the end of his career, he seems to only lose in massive title fights against top-quality opponents. He took the necessary time off after his insane loss to Max Holloway and came back with a win in his rematch with Rafael Fiziev. While it was a good fight to get back in the win column, there were some red flags in what was a close fight. Fiziev was able to score two takedowns and kept the striking close. The volume was down compared to previous fights, and he now gets Paddy Pimblett, who is surging as a UFC contender.
Pimblett continued to take criticism with his controversial wins and soft schedule, but he showed out against Michael Chandler. The striking still needs work, and Chandler isn’t the most technical fighter, but Pimblett dominated every aspect of the fight. Even though he was taken down four times, Pimblett dominated the grappling areas of the fight. While he didn’t get the submission, his ground and pound was ferocious, scoring a TKO win in the third round. The biggest takeaway from Pimblett’s career so far is that, despite the criticism, he’s gotten better with every fight and continues to win against tougher competition.
While Gaethje is Pimblett’s toughest fight yet, this could be a bad spot for Gaethje. He should be the better striker, but Pimblett will be relentless in getting the fight to the ground. Gaethje has a wrestling background and has been able to avoid the ground in the past, but when it gets there, he struggles with the grappling. Not only is Pimblett the better grappler, but he’s been durable on the feet and should be able to have his way on the ground. It would not be surprising to see Pimblett finish the fight on the ground en route to entering the lightweight title picture.
UFC 324 BEST BETS
2025 Total Units Won: +29.97
(All bets 1 Unit Unless Specified)
Ateba Gautier in Round 1 @ 1.86
Andrey Pulyaev has only been knocked out once, but the UFC is doing everything it can to promote Ateba Gautier. The matchmaking will certainly consider someone he can style on, and Pulyaev got pieced up in the first round against Nick Klein before finishing it in the second. This will be a war in the first round, and we’ll take a chance that Pulyaev will not survive.
Charles Johnson / Sean O’Malley Parlay @ 2.36
At one point, Alex Perez was considered one of the best fighters coming off Dana White’s Contender Series and fought for a title. Fast forward to 2026, and Perez is inactive, lacks durability, and seems to put himself in bad positions. Johnson has been driven for a few years to reach the top of the flyweight division, and he has a knockout over the champion.
O’Malley makes his return at UFC 324, and this fight complements everything he does well. Unless Song comes in with a brand new gameplan and switches to wrestling, he tends to stand and bang. We’ll take a chance on him going back to his old ways and watch O’Malley style on him.
Charles Johnson to Finish @ 3.00 (0.25 Units)
We’ll get the extra mile on Johnson here and take him to continue his rise as a finisher. As the fight goes on, he’ll have a higher chance to finish with his ability to finish anywhere. Even if he can’t finish on the feet, Perez has been known to get caught in bad spots on the ground, and Johnson could take advantage. This is too good a price to pass up.
Umar Nurmagomedov to Finish @ 2.25 (0.5 Units)
Figueiredo is a tough guy to finish, but he’s going to get out-grappled badly, and he could struggle on the feet as well. Nurmagomedov has something to prove. He knows that the UFC is looking for finishes, and a solid performance could get him back in the title picture. If this fight hits the ground, he will be looking for the submission win as much as possible. With the line where it’s at, taking a shot on him to finish is the right move.
UFC 324 should kick off 2026 in a big way. There are plenty of fights with title implications and massive prospects looking to make a splash later in the year. As we get the ball rolling in 2026, keep it locked to SlotsFighter to get all the best bets for UFC cards, and don’t forget to follow SlotsFighter and SOOKY MMA on Instagram.
