After picking 12 correct fights out of 14, we lost three units on the two fights we got wrong. We’re still up +5.8 units, but that will be tough to swallow.
Michel Pereira is being heavily criticized for his performance last week, and rightfully so. He barely got anything going, and people have gone as far as saying that he was throwing the fight.
The good news is the UFC already has us covered for our redemption song with UFC Des Moines. There are some high-quality fights for UFC Des Moines, with a great main event with bantamweight title implications. Let’s break down the main card for UFC Des Moines, and don’t forget to check back on Friday for our best bets on the card.
UFC DES MOINES MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Jeremy Stephens
5.25
1.17
Mason Jones
Jeremy Stephens returns to the UFC after a successful stint with Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship.
BKFC Knucklemania 5 Highlights: Eddie Alvarez vs. Jeremy Stephens
He has always packed a serious punch, with 18 of his 29 MMA fighters ending back KO/TKO. The bad news for Stephens is that Mason Jones is well-rounded and tough. We’ve seen him in some great fights in the UFC, and he is a Cage Warriors star. What stands out with Jones is his overall stats in all areas of MMA. He’s a good wrestler with some grappling, but is also a great MMA boxer. He has the volume, toughness, and speed to put on a show.
Stephens will be fighting in front of his hometown crowd in Iowa and has every reason to try and secure the win. Even at 38 years old, it’s hard to think that Stephens is just taking this fight for a paycheck.
At 5.25, you can almost guarantee I’ll be sprinkling a little on Stephens to show out in front of his hometown crowd.
Cameron Smotherman
2.14
1.74
Serhiy Sidey
In what should be a solid showcase of MMA boxing in a close fight, Cameron Smotherman and Serhiy Sidey will throw down in Des Moines. Smotherman lands 6.25 strikes per minute while Sidey sits at 4.87. They both average zero takedowns in the UFC so far, and eat about 4.5 strikes per minute. Not only are they both tough, but the volume is there, and the fight should stay standing.
The one thing that stands out here is Sidey’s size difference. He should have a three-inch reach advantage and a couple of inches in height. With the line so close, this will be a hard fight to bet on, and the only angle I like here is the dog or pass chance on Smotherman, who looked solid against Jake Hadley.
Montel Jackson
1.48
2.70
Daniel Marcos
If Montel Jackson fought more often, he’d be flirting with household name status. He’s only averaged about one fight a year for the last three years and now gets 17-0 Daniel Marcos.
Jackson put on a quick show against Da’Mon Blackshear last July, and that fight is aging well, given Blackshear’s success in 2025. He finished the fight in 18 seconds, but it makes you wonder why we don’t see him more often. He’s on the cusp of stardom, but Marcos is the real deal. He’s beaten Davey Grant, John Castaneda, and Adrian Yanez on his way to the top.
This matchup is a dark horse for the fight of the night. Jackson is the more well-rounded fighter with a significant reach and size advantage, but Marcos’s 5.90 strikes landed per minute make this a dangerous fight for both guys. The volume should be solid, and the pace should be amazing. Don’t miss this one.
Santiago Ponzinibbio
1.80
2.05
Daniel Rodriguez
I’m still not convinced this should be so high on the main card, but both fighters are exciting and have put in the time with the UFC. Santiago Ponzinibbio has been in there with some of the best fighters, and his durability has taken a hit. While Daniel Rodriguez doesn’t have the same resume, he’s been hit quite a bit in his UFC career.
After the controversial fight against Kelvin Gastelum, Rodriguez beat Morono in a split decision after a strong showing. Ponzinibbio is still a 30-8 MMA fighter, but lost two straight over the last two years before beating Carlston Harris in January. It was widely understood that this was a ‘get right spot’ for Ponzinibbio, and he did just that with a third-round finish.
This is a tough fight to call, and it would be best to wait to find a live bet. Ponzinibbio is a small favorite, but both fighters will eat some shots in this one, and I’m leaning towards the fight finishing before the final bell.
Reinier De Ridder
3.60
1.30
Bo Nickal
I can’t be alone in thinking this line is a little outrageous. Bo Nickal was far from impressive against Paul Craig, but he acts like a world-beater. His UFC record is extremely padded with lackluster fights, and now get gets Reinier De Ridder, the former ONE FC double-champ who is already 2-0 in the UFC.
Nickal was so afraid of Craig’s ground game that he stayed so far out of reach and landed minimal strikes. Craig wasn’t fazed and continued to fight, but it was obvious that Nickal’s overall striking game needs to improve. This could be the fight where we see him tested by a high-caliber fighter with solid MMA experience.
De Ridder is on the opposite end of Nickal. After coming over to the UFC, De Ridder is already 2-0 with two finishes. He submitted Kevin Holland most recently and did the same to Gerald Meerschaert in his UFC debut. The ground game is real, which is why the UFC could be giving Nickal another grappler, but De Ridder seems game to throw with his opponent till the opportunity presents itself to start attacking submissions.
This is a slightly better version of Paul Craig for Nickal to test his skills. If he doesn’t win impressively, his development could be much longer than people initially thought.
Cory Sandhagen
1.20
4.80
Deiveson Figueiredo
This is another line that seems wide, especially for the previous flyweight champion, but Cory Sandhagen is just that good. Deiveson Figueiredo was a powerful striker at flyweight but has used his wrestling and grappling more in the bantamweight division. The problem in this fight is that Cory Sandhagen has done a fantastic job of avoiding bad spots against some of the division’s best grapplers.
Figueiredo’s best chance here seems like a finish. So if you’re already thinking about the 4.80, you might as well go the whole way with him ending the fight. Sandhagen has solid cardio for five rounds and has elite distance management. It will take something special from Figueiredo to derail Sandhagen from his title hopes.
UFC DES MOINES BEST BETS
Miesha Tate to Win by Submission or Decision @ 1.80 (0.5 Units)
This is more of a play on the line. Miesha Tate is a 1.70 to win against Yana Santos, but it’s hard to see her finishing the fight on the feet or via ground and pound. The most likely scenario is that she scores takedowns and finds her way to Santos’ back. If she can’t find a finish, she should be able to do enough to take a decision win.
Cameron Smotherman to Win @ 2.14
Serhiy Sidey is a competitive fighter who looks good everywhere. He has shown signs of fading in close fights, and that’s where Cameron Smotherman should be able to steal the fight. Using his fight against Jake Hadley as an example, the distance management and timing were impressive. He was able to avoid a lot of Hadley’s offense and found ways to score his own. While this fight could go south fast, Smotherman deserves a look at dog money in what should be a close fight.
Quang Le to Win @ 2.14
This is a solid buy-low spot for Quang Le. A lot was expected of him coming in from LFA, but he’s had some tough fights to kick off his UFC career. Gastron Bolanos will need to manage his gas tank to avoid the big shots, but that’s easier said than done. Quang Le should not only be the fresher fighter, but he should also land the heavier shots over three rounds.
Jeremy Stephens to Win @ 5.75 (0.2 Units)
This is purely a number play. Mason Jones could easily wrestle for three rounds and take Jeremy Stephens to the cleaners. At the same time, Jones has always had the striking itch and loves to brawl. If that happens, Stephens will be in his wheelhouse. While this fight takes place at 155, Stephens should have some speed up a weight class and always carries the puncher’s chance.
Montel Jackson / Gillian Robertson / Azamat Bekoev Parlay @ 2.50
This is a play on three solid favorites in favorable matchups. While Gillian Robertson should be able to secure takedowns en route to a dominant win, Montel Jackson should have an edge everywhere against the undefeated Daniel Marcos. There is some fear in both fights, where the veteran opponents find ways to win.
Azamat Bokeov takes on a solid wrestler in Ryan Loder, but he should have a massive advantage on the feet. This bet relies completely on Bekoev avoiding the ground and keep the fight standing. If he does, we could see a devastating finish on the feet.
Thomas Petersen / Ivana Petrovic / Bo Nickal Parlay @ 2.50
If Thomas Petersen wrestles, he should be able to dominate Don’Tale Mayes. He’s outworked several fighters in his UFC career, and Mayes tends to slow down and is mostly competitive on the feet. He struggles to get out from the bottom and tends to fade in the process. This should be a good matchup for Petersen.
Juliana Miller may have won the Ultimate Fighter, but she’s 3-3 and relies heavily on her grappling. Ivana Petrovic should not only have the advantage on the feet but should land takedowns of her own.
Bo Nickal is taking a lot of heat for his performance against Paul Craig, but he knows what it takes to win. Against Reinier De Ridder, this should be his toughest test yet. The thing about this fight is that both guys have improving striking and rely mostly on wrestling and grappling. In this case, De Ridder will have to work tirelessly to get Nickal into grappling positions. If he can’t, this could be much of the same as the Craig fight, where Nickal edges him out on the feet.
Chalk Parlay:
Thomas Peterson / Gillian Robertson / Azamat Bekoev / Montel Jackson / Bo Nickal / Cory Sandhagen -5.5 Spread @ 6.64 (0.5 Units)
UFC Des Moines is another example of the UFC taking the show on the road to smaller areas outside the UFC Apex. After taking a week off, the UFC provided two solid cards outside the usual numbered events. Let’s enjoy them while they last.
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