After a few lackluster UFC cards from the APEX, UFC 322 delivered in a big way. Not only were the fights incredible, but we had a fantastic night of bets, all thanks to Kyle Daukaus, Islam Makhachev, Fatima Kline, Bo Nickal, and Erin Blanchfield. We won +2.42 Units on the night, and now sit at a comfortable +22.28 Units.
UFC heads to Qatar for some solid fights that will determine the top of the lightweight and welterweight divisions. Arman Tsarukyan takes on Dan Hooker in the main event, while Belal Muhammad and Ian Machado Garry do battle in the co-main event. The rest of the card isn’t anything special, especially after UFC 322, but let’s take a closer look at the main card, and, as always, don’t forget to check back in later in the week for our UFC Qatar best bets.
UFC QATAR MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Alex Perez
2.70
1.48
Asu Almabayev
Alex Perez is a great fighter, but injuries have absolutely plagued his UFC career. He’s fought five times in the last five years and is 1-4 in that span. His only win is a Matheus Nicolau finish, but against top-tier flyweights, he’s fallen far from the mark. There was a time when Perez was considered one of the best fighters to come off the Dana White Contender Series, but the injuries and inability to fight the top guys have prevented him from reaching his full potential.
Asu Almabayev has been finished twice on the feet in his career, including a Manel Kape knee earlier this year, but he’s still 5-1 in the UFC and 22-3. Even with six fights in the UFC, Perez is still a tough puzzle to crack compared to Almabayev’s previous opponents. He’s a solid wrestler and could make it tough to get the fight to the ground, which means Almabayev will have to mix it up well to win minutes.
Perez has finishing potential when he’s on his game, and his speed makes him a true flyweight. He was doing well against Taira till the injury, and the same can be said for his title fight back in the day. Almabayev will look to take him down, use leg kicks, and find ways to get the fight to the ground. Perez needs to use his boxing, create havoc, and find ways to get top control. If he’s able to avoid big shots and gain control time, there is a chance he can pull off the upset. Unless Perez has elite striking throughout the fight with solid takedown defense, Almabayev is the rightful favorite and better minute winner.
Serghei Spivac
2.14
1.74
Shamil Gaziev
Shamil Gaziev is taking a massive leap in competition, taking on Serghei Spivac. He lost to Jairzinho Rozenstruik after headlining the card because he couldn’t finish the fight. He won his next two fights against lesser competition, but Spivac has been taking on title challengers throughout his UFC career.
For Spivac, the loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta stands out because it shows a path to victory for his opponents. You must keep the fight standing and be able to strike for three rounds. While Gadziev should be able to keep the fight standing, he struggles to maintain his cardio over the course of the fight. His best path to victory is to pour it on early, make the most of his heavy shots, and not allow Spivak to dictate where the fight takes place. If Gadziev keeps it standing and can land big in the first round, he should be able to finish the fight.
Spivac has fought much tougher competition. For him to win, he needs to avoid the feet, at least early on, and force Gadziev to work. Even if it’s against the fence defending takedowns, he should be able to tire him out. Once Gadziev loses that edge in power, Spivac can have a little more confidence if he has to stand or force the fight to the mat. This fight is close, and the odds suggest that as well, but there is certainly value on the underdog.
Jack Hermansson
3.05
1.40
Myktybek Orolbai
Jack Hermansson could be coming back far too soon after his loss to Gregory Rodrigues. Not only did he get finished in a bad way, but he’s also moving down to 170 pounds to fight Myktybek Orolbai in a welterweight bout. There are a lot of red flags on the Hermansson side, but only he knows how his body is feeling and how well he recovered from that brutal knockout earlier this year.
Orolbai is one of the most exciting fighters on the roster right now. When he takes on lesser competition, he makes it look easy. When he takes on tougher fighters, they’re fight of the night candidates more often than not. His only UFC loss was a split decision against Mateusz Rebecki, which could go down as one of the best fights of all time. Both guys were beaten up badly, but they lasted the full three rounds, and it could have gone either way. He’s 3-1 in the UFC and has solid experience under his belt. He’s not the youngest fighter on the come-up, but he’s proven that his experience on the regional scene has prepared him well for UFC competition.
On paper, Hermansson is Orolbai’s toughest competition in terms of experience. Hermansson has been around for some time and fought some of the best middleweights in the UFC. However, given the trajectory of both fighters’ careers, there’s no reason to question Orolbai as the big favorite. He’s got a solid ground game to avoid any of Hermansson’s grappling, and he should be fast enough on the feet to keep it standing and find some big shots to keep Hermansson at bay. Hermansson will have a significant size advantage, but we’ll see how well he can use it.
Volkan Oezdemir
1.44
2.85
Alonzo Menifield
Alonzo Menifield is the biggest enigma in the UFC light heavyweight division. We’ve seen him at his best, and he’s scary, but sometimes he fights to his competition’s level. Against Julian Walker, a fighter making his debut, it seemed like Menifield had plenty of chances to showcase how much better he can be, but chose to fight in a more technical, slow fight, playing right into Walker’s game plan. He won the fight via split decision, but it should have been a much better performance. He’s now 10-5-1 UFC and has carved out a solid career despite the ups and downs.
Volkan Oezdemir also has 15 UFC fights, but he’s just 8-7. When you look at the losses, though, you can see why his record isn’t as pretty as Menifield’s. He’s fought tough for most of his UFC career, but he’s been able to beat some solid up-and-comers. While he lost to Carlos Ulberg last time out in November, he strung together two solid wins against Johnny Walker and Bogdan Guskov. While the Walker fight was impressive, the Guskov fight was even better because he shut down what looked to be a promising prospect on the rise.
It would be surprising to see this fight take place anywhere but the feet. Menifield could try for a takedown to avoid any power shots coming from Oezdemir, but he also has a chance of finishing this fight on the feet. Oezdemir has only been knocked out twice in his career, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see some wrestling and judo from Menifield. On top of that, Menifield has been knocked out three times in his career, two of which happened last year. If Oezdemir is trying to stay in the UFC, a massive knockout could be exactly what keeps him around for a bit longer.
Belal Muhammad
3.20
1.37
Ian Machado Garry
There has been a lot of back and forth between Belal Muhammad and Ian Garry, and it dates back to when Muhammad was still the UFC champion. Garry has worked his way up to the title picture, but after a sluggish end to his fight with Carlos Prates and a loss to Shavkat Rakhmanov, he still has something to prove.
Muhammad lost for the first time since 2019 in May against Jack Della Maddalena for the UFC welterweight title. He struggled with the boxing and doesn’t have that elite grappling that helps him keep fighters grounded. His wrestling is solid, and his boxing is improved, but other than a solid pace and well-rounded skills, Muhammad has proven to be beatable. He needs to find ways to deal with Garry’s length on the feet. He needs to get inside kicking range and try to use his boxing to set up his wrestling entries. If he tries to stand for too long, it seems like that’s Garry’s wheelhouse, and he should have a significant advantage there.
Garry is a big welterweight and knows how to use his length. We saw his elite footwork and timing against Prates for the first three rounds, before he faded for the final two. UFC 322 shook up the welterweight division pretty well, and Garry knows that he needs to make a splash in Qatar against Muhammad to earn a chance to fight Islam Makhachev. On top of his plans for the fight and after, Garry ripped into Muhammad’s prediction for the fight. Garry wants to keep the fight standing, and welcomes Muhammad to do so, but everyone knows that Muhammad’s best path to victory is to take him down and do as much damage as possible while they’re on the mat.
Arman Tsarukyan
1.18
5.00
Dan Hooker
We haven’t seen Arman Tsarukyan till he pulled out of his lightweight title fight against Makhachev. Not only was that one of the more controversial fight pull-outs, but it left a bad taste in the UFC’s mouth so close to the fight. There were videos of him on social media with influencers doing questionable workouts before his weigh-ins, and there was plenty of criticism coming his way. Now, after recovering and taking some time off, he gets Dan Hooker in the main event.
While this is a big step down for Tsarukyan in terms of rankings, Hooker is going to give him hell. He’s a tough striker with good kickboxing, and his confidence grows as the fight continues. He’s actually riding a three-fight win streak, with back-to-back split decision wins over Mateusz Gamrot and Jalin Turner. His tough run of fighters includes Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, Islam Makhachev, and Arnold Allen, all fighters who have graced the top five in the lightweight division.
While there’s plenty of reason to believe Tsarukyan knows he needs to get back in the UFC’s good graces, it would be surprising to see him go shot-for-shot with Hooker early in the fight. Hooker fights long and can use his kicks well to keep Tsarukyan at bay, but it’s up to Tsarukyan to get inside that kicking range and find ways to do damage of his own. Hooker is tough, but he can get rocked early. Both guys are skilled everywhere, and Hooker could land something special, but Tsarukyan’s technical edge, especially in the grappling and wrestling, should be the difference maker in this one.
UFC 322 was an incredible card, so UFC Qatar has some big shoes to fill. While the main event fights could be more than enough to keep us satisfied, some of these lesser-known fighters have to make the most of their UFC opportunities. The prelims are stacked with unknown fighters looking to make a splash in the UFC, and with several international fighters, this is the perfect chance for them to earn their keep. If the prelims deliver, the main card should be able to keep the good times rolling.
