UFC Vegas 115 is upon us, and we’re coming off what should have been a stellar UFC Seattle card. We went 1-2 on bets, but going conservative was a big mistake. All the underdog leans hit, Alexia Thainara dominated but couldn’t finish, and Ignacio Bahamondes and Chase Hooper lost terrible fights. We’re not sitting at -2.38 Units, but we’re ready to keep cooking as we try to make it back.
UFC Vegas 115 is a tough card to predict with so many new fighters making their return. The good news is there’s plenty of showcase fights. The UFC is trying to show off some new talent this weekend, and it’s on us to find the right spots to make some money. Let’s take a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Vegas 115 best bets.
UFC Vegas 115 Main Card Breakdown
Tommy McMillen
1.06
9.50
Manolo Zecchini
There isn’t a better definition of a showcase fight than this one. Tommy McMillen didn’t have the best start to his Dana White Contender Series fight, but he showed incredible heart and durability to survive the first round. He turned it up in the second round and landed massive shots. Even though he won a majority decision, his exciting style earned him a UFC contract. Before that, he was riding an eight-fight first-round finishing streak. The UFC knows what they’re getting and are excited to show him off.
Manolo Zecchini hasn’t fought since 2023, when he lost his UFC debut to Morgan Charriere in the first round via body kicks. He’s 2-2 since 2019 and doesn’t have any skills that stand out. He has a good mix of finishing wins before that, but his footwork isn’t good, and this could be a fight where he falls behind quickly.
The UFC wants McMillen to go out there and put on a show. He has multiple ways to finish this fight, and, as mentioned, he has only seen a second round once in his career. His volume will be a problem, but if he gets it to the ground, it will be interesting to see if Zecchini can survive the grappling. Without question, this is McMillen’s fight to lose, and he should be able to get this done before the judges’ scorecards.
Ethyn Ewing
1.74
2.14
Rafael Estevam
Ethyn Ewing had one of the best UFC coming-out parties in recent memory. He was able to secure a victory over Malcolm Wellmaker in a massive underdog spot, and his toughness and striking were on full display. While we saw how good a striker he is, this fight will come down to how well he fights in all areas of MMA. We haven’t seen much of his grappling at this level, and it will be a major part of keeping the fight where he wants it.
Rafael Estevam is moving to bantamweight after struggling to make weight at flyweight. He’s a good grappler, but there is a ‘weight-bullying’ aspect to his reign at flyweight. At bantamweight, he’s going to have to try a similar game plan against bigger fighters, which could be a problem. If he’s not able to get the fight to the ground, he will need to strike with a much more powerful puncher, and it will be harder to get the fight in favourable areas.
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup where the hype is in the striker’s corner. After Ewing’s big performance last time out, he’s getting oddsmakers’ respect going into a much tougher fight. This bout comes down to where the fight takes place. If Estevam can get the fight to the ground, he has all the skills in the world to pull off the upset. If Ewing can keep it standing, we could be looking at another impressive performance from the UFC newcomer.
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
1.05
11.00
Brendson Ribeiro
Another massive favorite, Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev is coming off a massive UFC debut where he finished the fight in under a minute. He also finished his Dana White Contender Series fight in under a minute, and is riding a four-fight first-round finishing streak. Despite his 8-0 record, he’s proving to be a well-versed fighter who can finish anywhere. He won the Ares FC title before entering the UFC, and has only been to a decision once. He’s explosive, looks for the kill, and is getting a favourable matchup in his second UFC fight.
Yakhyaev UFC Debut 30-second finish: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/k5En_QDBACA
Brendson Ribeiro is being fed to the wolves, but he has a chance to prove he belongs in the UFC. He’s 2-4 since winning his Dana White Contender Series fight, and it’s clear that he struggles with the early power of good strikers. While his strength of schedule is relatively tough, his inability to survive in the first round is a clear problem. When the fight goes past the first round, he’s 2-0 with a submission and a decision win.
There is a clear path to victory for Yakhyaev. Continue to push a heavy pace in the first round and go for the kill. It’s obvious that Ribeiro struggles early, and that plays right into his strengths. For Ribeiro, a path to victory exists. It’s to survive the first round at all costs and hope you can get the fight to the ground later. If he can find a way to work his grappling, he has an outside shot of pulling off a massive upset. That’s much easier said than done, and it would be surprising to see this fight go past the first round.
Virna Jandiroba
1.83
2.00
Tabitha Ricci
Virna Jandiroba was close to becoming the next champion against Mackenzie Dern, but came out with a loss. She goes from a title fight to fighting an up-and-coming fighter who is 3-2 in her last five. The big thing about Jandiroba’s title fight is that she looked better on her feet. The grappling skills are elite, but because she wasn’t able to get the fight to the ground, the difference in striking was what ultimately lost her the fight. Before the title fight, she was on a fight-fight win streak against top competition in the division. Dern might be a bad matchup for her, but she’s held her own against everyone else.
Tabitha Ricci is a good striker and can mix it up well, but her experience is something to question in this fight. She was able to finish her last fight against Amanda Ribas, but it’s her first finish on the feet since 2021. She’s approaching her prime, but also starting to fight top competition. While she hasn’t looked elite anywhere, her ability to push the pace and find ways to win is taking her far in the UFC. She’s 7-3 in the UFC with losses against solid fighters, two of whom fought for a title fairly recently.
This fight comes down to where it takes place. Ricci has an edge on the feet and could even win the clinch battles against the fence, but she’ll have to be careful with Jandiroba’s wrestling and ability to get the fight to the ground. There’s a massive technical difference, and if Jandiroba can get top position consistently, it’s her best path to victory. Jandiroba will also have a three-inch reach advantage, which is big against a fighter who likes to fight in close. This fight is as close as it gets, but it will be interesting to see who can find ways to steal points over three rounds.
Renato Moicano
2.60
1.52
Chris Duncan
Renato Moicano is in a weird place in his career. He was riding a four-fight win streak and earned himself a short-notice title fight against Islam Makhachev. Still, after losing that, he lost to Beneil Dariush via unanimous decision. He continues to show durability and toughness, but you just never know which version you get. In his last win against Benoit Saint-Denis, he got favourable positions in the fight and won via doctor stoppage. Can he find ways to survive the early onslaught and get the fight to the ground where he can do damage from top position? That is the biggest question for Moicano.
Chris Duncan is on a tear. He’s on a four-fight winning streak, where he’s finished three of four, and the fights have been exciting. He’s proven his toughness, but more importantly, his striking improvements. His fight against Mateusz Rebecki is worth a re-watch, and it’s the best example of how much he’s improved since his Manuel Torres loss in 2023. His most recent win against Terrance McKinney was a prime example of how he weathered the storm and proved to be the more technical fighter.
This will be the second time in three fights that he takes on a teammate from American Top Team, but all the momentum is on his side. It’s hard to see where Duncan can lose this fight, but Moicano’s best opportunity will be to weather the storm, do as much damage as he can, and find ways to take the fight to the ground. He’s proven to be a problem in the top position, and it’s his ground and pound that could help him get his hand raised. On the feet, Ducan is super durable, but he lands at a high clip, which could be a problem for Moicano, who has faltered in similar positions in the past. If this fight stays close, it will likely come down to the fresher fighter in the final round, as both guys could find ways to do damage over two rounds.
UFC Vegas 115 Best Bets
- 2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
- 2026 Record: 19-30, -2.38 Units
(Coming soon…)
While UFC Vegas 115 lacks name value, there is a clear agenda from the UFC. They are hoping some fresh blood makes a splash against favourable matchups, which set them up for bigger fights down the road. The main event should be fireworks for as long as it lasts, and the co-main event should be a solid fight between two title hopefuls. Overall, this is all about finding new fighters to promote, which should make for fun, exciting fights.
