Showdown in Serbia: Uros Medic gets Daniel Rodriguez for UFC Belgrade

We’re officially on the best run of the year!

We continued our hot streak at UFC Abu Dhabi, winning +2.295 Units. We’re not sitting at +5.97 Units on the year, and are in a prime position to keep the hot streak going. 

The UFC now heads to Serbia for UFC Belgrade. It’s a dream come true for Uros Medic, who headlines the card against Daniel Rodriguez. The card is stacked from top to bottom, so let’s take a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Belgrade best bets.

UFC Belgrade Main Card Breakdown

Milos Janicic

1.83

2.00

Noah Gugnon

Milos Janicic has plenty of experience on the European regional scene, but it’s impossible to predict how that will translate to his UFC debut. He’s not the fastest fighter, but he’s well-rounded and finds ways to win. While he is from Montenegro, it’s clear the UFC got wind of his style at DBX events. Between MMA and dirty boxing, Janicic is riding a five fight win streak, finishing the last three in the first round. There’s an excitement factor here, and he should also have a home crowd behind him. 

Noah Gugnon gets a little bit more respect coming out of Ares FC. He wasn’t consistently active early in his MMA career, but he’s riding a five-fight finishing streak where he’s finished two fights via ground-and-pound and one via submission. He’s a 25-year-old grinder who will try to put it on you, and there has to be a reason the UFC are putting him on the main card.

The betting line is close given both fighters haven’t fought in the UFC before and are coming in on hot streaks. The one guarantee is that both fighters are looking to make a name for themselves in their UFC debuts. Based on some of Gugnon’s wins, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him change levels and take the fight to the ground. He’s shown the ability to control his opponents on the ground and do damage, which could be the perfect gameplan against a fighter coming off Dirty Boxing rules. Janicic will try to keep the fight standing and land the more powerful shots, but this fight could be a back and forth war that leads to a close decision.

Vlasto Cepo

1.28

3.80

Gilbert Urbina

Vlasto Cepo is coming in as a massive favorite with a showcase spot at UFC Belgrade. Cepo is exactly what the UFC is looking for right now. He’s a boxer who swings wildly and has shown some power. He’s a high pressure fighter with average takedown defense, but he’s strong and can get out of dangerous spots to keep the fight standing. The explosiveness is there, but he’s been on record saying he almost quit MMA because of the grappling side. He has some developing to do, but the excitement factor is there. 

Gilbert Urbina has struggled with durability. He’s 7-4 overall, and 1-3 in the UFC. All three of his losses are via finish, and he lost his last two fights via knockout. He’s a high pressure fighter with good volume, but he opens himself up to powerful counters and good boxers have exposed him. He’s only fought four times in the last five years. He’s on the UFC hot seat and needs a massive win to stay with the promotion.

There is only one path to victory for Urbina. Avoid the early power and pressure, and get the fight to the ground. Urbina should have a substantial skill advantage in wrestling and grappling, and there is no reason for him to stay in the striking exchanges with Cepo. If he can get him down early, force him to use energy as he fights for position, he’ll make this fight a lot more competitive. If this fight stays standing, it seems like only a matter of time for Cepo to land the finishing blow as he pushes the pace and lands powerful combinations.   

Dusko Todorovic

2.40

1.60

Robert Valentin

Dusko Todorovic is a fringe UFC talent. He’s 4-6 in the UFC, but got a favourable matchup against Jose Medina last time out. He was able to rely on his grappling against Medina, and that’s the safer route for a fighter who struggles to avoid damage. He eats plenty of damage and his 44% defense is a glaring hole in his game. He’s a good boxer who pushes the pace, but his durability is always a question.

Robert Valentin is another fighter who has been struggling at the UFC level. He’s 1-3, losing two by knockout, but he won his last fight via rear-naked choke. The problem is the win came against a fighter who isn’t UFC level, and there’s still questions on if he belongs. The wrestling and grappling skills are there, but he struggles on the feet. He maintains 33% striking defense and lands 1.30 strikes per minute. He’s had career durability issues, and it’s hard to get up to par at this point of his career.

The loser of this fight is likely getting cut from the UFC. Given how the fight plays out, both fighters could be cut, but they should be aware of what is at stake. Todorovic likes to stand and bang, but the level of competition has been tough. In this fight, he may have far more opportunities to use his striking to win the fight. He should have a skill advantage, and as long as he can avoid the big overhands, he should maintain an edge. Valentin needs to go for the grappling. If he can maintain top position and hunt for submissions, he’ll even have opportunities to land ground-and-pound.  

Aleksandar Rakic

1.28

3.75

Marcin Tybura

Aleksandar Rakic is moving to heavyweight after going 0-4 in his last four fights. He suffered a leg injury against Jan Blachowicz but was knocked out in two of his losses. He’s 6-5 in the UFC, but durability has become a concern at light heavyweight. The move to heavyweight should help him with the chin aspect from cutting weight, and it should be less on his body at this point of his career. He’s a solid kickboxer, but it will be interesting to see if his power transitions as well.

Marcin Tybura is an aging veteran who should spend the rest of his career with the UFC. He’s 14-10 overall, has plenty of experience, and is fairly skilled given the mileage. He dropped his last two fights, looking much worse against Ante Delija, before losing a close decision to Tyrell Fortune. The chin is deteriorating and the cardio has been questionable, but he does have the baseline skill to hang in most fights, and he’s been good at taking fighters into deep waters in the past.

Rakic should have a significant durability boost at heavyweight. Whether he has the power and length to use his kickboxing is another question. He’s 6’4” with a 78 inch reach, which stacks up well against Tybura. Rakic needs to maintain his range, land to the body, and look for the finish blow. Tybura will force a wrestling match where he can control top position and force Rakic to wear his weight. This is a solid heavyweight debut for Rakic, and it should be a solid reboot for his career. 

Jan Blachowicz

3.60

1.30

Navajo Sterling

Jan Blachowicz is on the tail end of his career, but he’s had a fantastic UFC career. From title run to gatekeeper, Blachowicz continues to stay competitive with the UFC’s rising prospects. He hasn’t won a fight since 2022, but he’s been competitive against the division’s best fighters. He’s a good boxer with plenty of power, but it’s clear he’s lost a step over the years. He looks slower, is usually playing from behind, and has been cracked in recent fights. 

Navajo Sterling is a surging prospect, but his wins have come with a caveat. His fights aren’t against top competition, but there are times where he is losing the fight. Against Ion Cutelaba last time out, he struggled with the grappling, was losing the fight, but was able to recover with a finish after Cutelaba gassed himself out. His technical boxing is solid, but his only finishes are against fighters who struggle with durability. He’s still 10-0 and now gets the biggest fight of his life.

The betting line is wide, but it’s hard to back an aging Blachowicz who hasn’t looked his best. Sterling has been capitalizing on sub-par competition and aging fighters, and it looks like the UFC is trying to set him up for a big fight. If this fight stays standing, Sterling should have a power and technical edge as the faster fighter. It will be tough for him to find the finishing blow, but he has the power and skill to find the shot. Blachowicz needs to weather the storm and find ways to get the fight to the ground. He should be the better wrestler and grappler, and that looks like his best path to victory to pull off the upset. 

Uros Medic

1.26

3.95

Daniel Rodriguez

Uros Medic is coming into his own. He’s riding a three-fight first round finishing streak, and is 7-3 in the UFC. In his last post-fight interview, he asked the UFC to host an event in Serbia, and here we are. His left hand is extremely powerful, and his losses are against solid competition earlier in his career. He’s a fantastic MMA boxer, has improved defensively, and has never been to a decision. The Punahele Soriano knockout loss set him back, but he’s come back strong and showing solid finishing prowess as an exciting fighter.

It was not long ago Daniel Rodriguez found himself fighting for his freedom from a Mexican jail. It was after his Kevin Holland win last July, where he won a unanimous decision for his third win in a row. Rodriguez is a well-rounded fighter with an old-school brawler edge. He’s 10-4 in the UFC, losing only to Ian Garry, Neil Magny, Kelvin Gastelum, and Nicolas Dalby. Garry is the only fighter to knockout him, while Magny is the only fighter to submit him. While he isn’t the most well-known fighter, his record is legit and his ability to stay in the fight makes him exciting against anyone.

Medic is a massive favorite in this one, and it’s understandable. He’s passing the eye test as a finisher, but it takes a real beating to put Rodriguez out. There is a significant age gap here, with Medic in his prime at 33 and Rodriguez on his way out at 39, but it would not be surprising to see this fight turn competitive if it gets out of the first round. If Rodriguez can get this fight to the ground early, he’ll neutralize the early power threat and can do some ground-and-pound damage of his own. Everything leads to a Medic highlight reel finish in front of his home crowd, but experience goes a long way in this one.

UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bets

2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units

2026 Record: 53-66-1, +5.79 Units

(Coming Soon…)

While there are plenty of new names at UFC Belgrade, the top half of the main card includes some of the bigger names and exciting fighters for the European crowd. There are dark horse title implications in the main events as well, as Medic and Sterling try to continue their surge. Top to bottom, UFC Belgrade should deliver.

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