We’re back, baby. We’re coming off two straight winning cards, and our conservative approach with a single two-unit parlay for UFC London paid off. Luke Riley proved he’s an elite talent over five rounds, and Iwo Baraniewski finished the fight in under 30 seconds. We make +1.66 Units at UFC London and cut into our early-season losses to sit at -1.975 Units in 2026.
The UFC is headed to Seattle for a main event between Israel Adesanya and Joe Pyfer. While this is an elite-level fight, the rest of the card should deliver as well. Maycee Barber makes her case for a title shot against Alexa Grasso in the co-main event, while plenty of up-and-comers look to make a splash in exciting matchups. Let’s take a look at the UFC Seattle main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our best bets.
UFC Seattle Best Bets
Israel Adesanya
1.76
2.10
Joe Pyfer
Israel Adesanya makes his return to the octagon this weekend, and the betting line shifted from being an underdog to the favourite. He’s 0-3 since 2023, but he’s taken on some of the best fighters in the UFC. The biggest takeaway from all of his losses is that he was doing well in the beginning, but ended up getting finished in the last two. When defending his belt against Sean Strickland, the cardio battle was the major difference as Strickland took over the fight in five rounds. His skills are undeniable, but the chin is the biggest question going into this fight.
Joe Pyfer is well on his way to the top of the UFC middleweight division. After a hiccup against Jack Hermansson, Pyfer realized that he needed to pace himself and pick his shots well. He’s riding a three-fight win streak and is coming off a second-round rear-naked choke win over Abus Magomedov.
He looks a lot more technical since his earlier fights in the UFC, and it’s starting to pay off in a big way. He’s 6-1 in the UFC overall, and the changes he’s made are helping him take on much better fighters as he enters his prime. This is, by far, his toughest test yet, and it will be interesting to see what gameplan he deploys against a crafty veteran on the feet.
Adesanya needs to be perfect for as long as the fight lasts. Pyfer has serious power, but his more technical approach works in Adesanya’s favour. As long as he can avoid the big power shots and counter with his own strikes, Adesanya should be able to win the battle on the feet. The big question will be if Pyfer decides to wrestle. Driccus Du Plessis was able to get Adesanya to the ground and finish via submission. If the striking battle is close, Pyfer has a solid wrestling background to make this fight interesting. The betting line suggests that the public sees Adesanya weathering the storm and coming away with the win, but this fight is close, given Pyfer’s paths to victory and Adesanya’s questionable durability.
Alexa Grasso
2.54
1.54
Maycee Barber
Alexa Grasso has suffered a slight fall from grace after beating Valentina Shevchenko for the title, but she’s fought top-level competition. After drawing in her second fight with Shevchenko, she lost the trilogy fight and then lost to Natalia Silva. She was unable to match the footwork, and her boxing wasn’t effective. Her development over the years has gotten her a UFC title, but as she continues to see top competition, the holes in her game are starting to come through. She’s still a top fighter in the division, but her ability to manage the fight depends on her opponent’s skills on the feet and their footwork to counter her boxing.
This is a big rematch for Maycee Barber. Grasso was her last loss, but she’s ripped off seven wins since and is looking better than ever. While she’s had issues making the walk due to injuries, weight misses, and mental lapses, her progress over the last five years has been impressive. Her striking and confidence are improving, and it’s clear that the mental game was a major part of her early issues. She isn’t the biggest finisher, but her ability to manage the fight and find ways to win is propelling her into the title picture.
Recency bias suggests that Grasso is on her way out and Barber is on her way in. However, Grasso’s boxing was far too much for Barber in their first fight. She was unable to find her range, and Grasso was landing solid combinations. Other than Silva, who is a great striker, all of Grasso’s losses are against good wrestlers. Barber is well-rounded and could employ some wrestling as well. The edge in striking should still go to Grasso, but Barber’s improvements justify this betting line.
Michael Chiesa
1.16
5.40
Niko Price
This betting line is absurd, but it looks like the oddsmakers and the public are buying into Michael Chiesa’s win probability in his final fight in his hometown. Chiesa doesn’t have a knockout on his record, but his grappling has always been elite. Despite his age, Chiesa has won his last three fights and finished Max Griffin and Tony Ferguson via rear-naked choke. This is likely Chiesa’s retirement fight, and he’s getting a favourable matchup to end his UFC career.
Niko Price is also an aging veteran, but his UFC career is all but done. He’s 1-5 in his last six UFC fights and lost his last two fights via finish. He has three wins since 2019 and is now taking on Chiesa on short notice after being brutally knocked out in February. While he’s pulled off surprise victories in the past, it seems like all the odds are stacked against him in this one.
Price’s best path to victory is to keep this standing and turn it into a war. It’s how he’s won his previous fights, but the grappling disadvantage could be far too much over three rounds. Chiesa will spam takedowns, and once he gets it to the ground, he’s one of the best submission grapplers in MMA. It’s hard to see Price winning this fight in any capacity.
Julian Erosa
3.45
1.32
Lerryan Douglas
Julian Erosa has made the most of his third stint with the UFC. While he’s just 3-2 in his last five, his recent loss to Melquizael Costa is aging well, and he finished his previous three fights in the first round. He fights long, has good front kicks, and has a sneaky ground game. He has a massive experience advantage in this fight, but he’s also been knocked out seven times in his career. This first round is always dangerous for him because he over-extends and gets caught.
Lerryan Douglas is a killer. His Dana White Contender Series was a beautiful performance. He picked his shots and showed off his power. He picks his shots well and throws massive hooks. He’s currently riding a five-fight win streak, which includes an LFA featherweight title win. His patience and power are his best assets, but his loss to Isaac Thomson exposed a part of his game. He ate several push kicks, took a few body kicks and got rocked by a head kick. Even though he was finished in the second round, he came back strong and is now fighting in the UFC.
There is a clear path to victory for Erosa here. If he can weather the early storm, he has the kicking game to make this fight interesting. He has to use his range and push kicks to keep Douglas at bay, while using his leg and body kicks to slow him down. Douglas will push forward and look for big counters, but he is susceptible to the body as we’ve seen. If Erosa gets reckless early, Douglas will take full advantage in boxing range. With this betting line so wide, there is a way for Erosa to pull off the upset, but that’s easier said than done.
Mansur Abdul-Malik
1.86
1.95
Yousri Belgaroui
Mansour Abdul-Malik is in an interesting spot going into this fight. After being one of the chalkier fighters on every card he’s been on, he’s now almost a pick’em going into UFC Seattle. The biggest criticism of his UFC career thus far is that he’s been given winnable fights. He’s finished every fight in the UFC thus far, outside of his overturned decision to Cody Brundage, and he now goes into what looks like his toughest fight thus far. He’s an incredible athlete with improving skills, but this fight will determine where he’s at in his young UFC career.
Yousri Belgaroui is getting plenty of backing heading into this fight. He’s a good kickboxer coming in from GLORY, and his Dana White Contender Series fight put him on the map. After finishing that fight in the third round, he went on to beat Azamat Bekoev in the same way. Bekoev was a 20-plus-fight MMA veteran, but Belgaroui’s striking proved to be too much. His win against Bekoev is certainly playing a part in the current betting line, and his lengthy striking style makes him a dangerous fighter.
Malik needs to wrestle in this fight. Belgaroui’s striking is elite. His footwork is beautiful, and his ability to land as opponents close in proved to be a massive problem against Bekoev. He absolutely styled in his last fight, but he started to tire as Bekoev pushed him against the fence and forced the clinch. Malik is a great athlete and can leverage that to his advantage by setting the pace and changing levels often. Standing at range will give Belgaroui all the confidence in the world, but forcing him to wrestle is the only way to neutralize his solid kickboxing. This will be a great chess match.
Terrance McKinney
1.60
2.40
Kyle Nelson
It’s hard to trust Terrance McKinney outside of the first round, but for those first five minutes, you’re getting one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC. He lost his last fight in the first round, but Chris Duncan is on his way to the top of the division. He was able to land big shots and really put the pressure on, but the volume was too much, and he started to tire. McKinney is a good grappler, but he was taking big shots on the ground, and Duncan was able to lock in an anaconda choke. His pressure and power early in the fight seem to work against him in every loss, but when he wins, it’s exciting.
Kyle Nelson packs a punch, too. In terms of matchmaking, the UFC is hoping for fireworks in the first round. Outside of losing to Steve Garcia in 2024, Nelson has been durable. He is coming off a win against Matt Frevola, where he ate 36 significant strikes in the first two rounds. Frevola has proven to be a solid power puncher, which lines up well going into this fight. He’s 34, 5-5 in the UFC, and has been finished in all but one of his UFC losses. This will be an uphill battle, but he does have a path to victory against McKinney.
McKinney should start this fight the way he always does. Push forward, look for massive strikes, and threaten the submissions if the opportunity arises. Nelson’s best path to victory is weathering the storm, finding ways to tire McKinney early, and taking over the fight as it goes on. McKinney has never been to a third round in 25 fights, which works well for Nelson, who has seven decision wins in 17 victories. Will we see a new version of McKinney who paces himself for a full fight? That’s really what this fight comes down to if it gets out of the first round.
UFC Seattle Best Bets
- 2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
- 2026 Record: 18-28, -1.975 Units
(Coming soon…)
Looking at UFC Seattle, there are plenty of exciting fights with finish potential. With finishes down overall in 2026, the UFC is hoping for a much more eventful card. Adesanya and Pyfer should put on a show, but it’s the lesser fighters that could deliver even more. There are some showcase spots for prelim fighters, and it will be interesting to see if they take advantage of the opportunity.
Check out our main card breakdown and best bets for UFC Seattle on SlotsFighter.com. We’re coming off what could have been a massive weekend, so let’s see if we can make it happen this week. Keep it locked to SlotsFighter to get all the best bets for UFC cards, and don’t forget to follow SlotsFighter and SOOKY MMA on Instagram.
