The UFC returns to Saudi Arabia with another fantastic card.
Israel Adesanya and Nassourdine Imavov headline the main card which features a great striking battle between Shara Magomedov and Michael Page as the co-main event. Even if people aren’t familiar with all the fighters on this card heading into Saturday, there’s a good chance some of them become household names by the end of the weekend.
Terrance McKinney will fight on the prelims against Damir Hadzovic, which should be a walk in the park for the teeter-tottering lightweight. He needs a big win and the UFC is giving him every chance in the world to get back on the MMA map.
The rest of the prelims will be a great start to the card, but the main card is where the UFC hit it out of the park. Here’s a breakdown of the full main card with some interesting bets to consider for UFC Saudi Arabia.
Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov
This is a solid buy-low spot for Israel Adesanya. There’s a chance Nassourdine Imavov uses clinching and wrestling to win the fight over five rounds, but his cardio is always tested and he doesn’t have the power to finish the fight. Adesanya has fought great wrestlers and can keep the fight standing without giving up too much position.
Imavov’s most impressive win was against Jared Cannonier. It was a technical striking battle where he made the most of his shots and finished the fight late. The difference maker here should be Adesanya’s long strikes and kicking game. He’s more creative than Cannonier and is elite with distance management.
Imavov will have to work hard for his strikes and control time, making Adesanya to Win at 1.65 a good parlay piece since you can hedge with Imavov to Win at 2.40 if your parlay is still alive before the last fight of the card. Guaranteed money is the best kind.
Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page
Michael Page at 185 is a dangerous look. He’s the older fighter with limited power and is taking on a high-volume striker with improving cardio. Shara Magomedov is coming off his best win in the UFC and is ready to silence the critics with a big-name win.
The big question is can Page keep up with the volume and power for three rounds? It will be tough against the bigger fighter. With the judges’ edge in Saudi Arabia also siding with Magomedov, it’s hard to go against him.
Some people who enjoy risk are willing to go with Magomedov to Finish at 3.50 but this could also be a slow, technical battle for three rounds. The Magomedov to Win line has also been slammed to 1.58 which doesn’t present much value. If you’re a parlay bettor, this could be another solid leg.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Sergei Pavlovich
In terms of value, this fight might be the best. Remember, this is a massive underdog shot, but it’s also UFC heavyweights and Jairzinho Rozenstruik has been in there with some of the best.
Can Sergei Pavlovich completely starch Rozenstruik? 100%. Pavlovich to Win in Round 1 is 1.80 and the most predicted outcome. The thing is, though, if Rozenstruik gets out of the first round, he’ll have every opportunity to steal the next two rounds. He has pretty solid cardio for a heavyweight and showed a knack for fighting technical kickboxing matches over three rounds.
If Rozenstruik lands just one takedown in the first round, the momentum in this fight will shift drastically. Looking at Pavlovich’s recent UFC first-round finishes, Rozenstruik is a much better technical striker than all of them and has only been finished on the feet by Alexander Volkov and Francis Ngannou. With Rozentstruik to Win at 3.35, you can hit this live at a discount if he survives the early onslaught. If you like the value enough to bet it pre-fight, lay it and hold your breath.
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira
The betting line is close in this one, which tells you Vinicius Oliveira has a chance to find a victory. Said Nurmagomedov is good everywhere, though. Even in his UFC losses, he looked great in certain areas of the fight. He has a nasty choke and could finish this fight via submission, but Oliveira has never been submitted.
On the feet, this fight will be close. Oliveira has size but has been finished in the past. The big fear with Nurmagomedov is the cardio factor if it’s a high-output fight. Oliveira is on a four-fight win streak with three finishes on the feet. He should be able to keep this competitive and force Nurmagomedov to change levels.
With Nurmagomedov’s submission upside and both guys having a chance to finish the fight late, the Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance at 1.83 is the best bet for this fight. It will be a close fight, but at their best, both guys could end it early.
Fares Ziam vs. Mike Davis
Fares Ziam versus Mike Davis is one of the best fights on the card. If it were not for injuries, Davis would be high on people’s list of fighters to keep an eye on. Despite the layoffs, he has solid UFC experience, but he needs to be at his best against the French kickboxer.
Ziam has climbed people’s ranks after his beautiful knee knockout against Matt Frevola. He’s a technical kickboxer with improved wrestling and grappling defense. He wants to keep the fight standing but has to avoid the ground with most fighters. In this case, that’s where Davis excels.
Even with Ziam’s upside in this fight, the bet that’s hard to pass up is Davis to Finish at 3.75. There should be live opportunities for both fighters, but Davis is not only skilled everywhere, but he’s a great wrestler with solid grappling. Ziam has been dominated on the ground in the past and almost got finished via guillotine against Frevola. At 3.75, Davis is a great look to finish the fight.
UFC Saudi Arabia promises to be a great card to kick off 16 straight weeks of UFC events. Plenty of talent will be showcased on this card, with title implications in the main event. Keep it locked to SlotsFighter for all your UFC and MMA picks, breakdowns, and opinions.
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