UFC Baku was a solid card from Azerbaijan, and we’re up +0.5 Units for a total of +8.2465!
The biggest loss on the card was having faith in two big favorites in WMMA who couldn’t cut it. Both fighters strayed from their strengths and made their underdog opponents look like world-beaters. We’ll lick our wounds and get right back to it with UFC 317.
This card is stacked. Let’s take a look at the five-fight main card, and be sure to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC 317 on SlotsFighter.com.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Odds Provided by ThunderPick
Payton Talbott
2.54
1.47
Felipe Lima
Payton Talbott enters this one as a pretty big underdog after being a highly-touted prospect on his way up the UFC ladder. Raoni Barcelos is a true UFC veteran and fought the perfect fight. Talbot had no answer for Barcelos’ takedowns and suffered his first career defeat.
Felipe Lima is riding a high at the start of his UFC career. After wining the OKTAGON title, he made his UFC debut against Muhammad Naimov and won via submission. He beat Miles Johns in his last UFC appearance, and now has a chance to put a on a show against a fellow rising prospect.
Lima’s price tag comes with an understanding that if Talbott can’t defend the takedowns, he’ll be in a world of hurt. Talbott is a good striker with solid timing and power, but this fight is another example where striking isn’t the only part of MMA. If he hopes to pull off the upset, he’ll need to keep the fight standing and force Lima into a technical striking battle.
Beneil Dariush
2.20
1.61
Renato Moicano
We haven’t seen Beneil Dariush in the UF since his back to back losses in 2023 to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan. It wasn’t his fault, though. Because Tsarukyan had to pull out of his fight with Islam Makhachev, Moicano was moved up to the main event, forcing Dariush to watch from the sidelines.
Dariush hasn’t won a UFC fight since 2022 and he’s not getting any younger. While this could be a good matchup for him if he mixes it up on the feet and avoids the ground, you have to wonder if he still packs a punch at 36 years old. Despite his 16-6 UFC record, he’s been knocked out five times.
Moicano got to taste what it’s like to fight against Makhachev and he learned it’s a different level pretty quickly. Prior to that, Moicano was riding a five-fight win streak and is 7-2 since moving up to lightweight. Give his activity and growth in the UFC, it’s understandable why he’s the favorite. At the same time, if this turns into a back-and-forth striking battle, it could go either way.
Brandon Royval
1.86
1.86
Joshua Van
For any long-time UFC fan, this line has to stand out. Brandon Royval has been a perennial title contender in the UFC flyweight division for the past few years and has fought the absolute best. His only losses in the UFC are Alexandre Pantoja twice and Brandon Moreno. He’s 7-3 in the UFC and is riding a two-fight win streak after two split decision wins against Tatsuro Taira and Moreno. While his fights aren’t pretty, he’s competitve and knows how to point fight. He’s extremely hard to finish and his first loss to Moreno was actually due to injury. He fights long, has good volume and a solid gas tank.
Even though he’s 7-1 in the UFC, this seems like too much too fast for Joshua Van. His lone loss comes via finish against Charles Johnson, but outside of that, he’s looked elite. He’s 4-0 since the loss and has already fought twice in 2025. After finishing Bruno Silva less than a month ago, he now gets a top five flyweight a few weeks later.
It’s easy to see why Van carries so much hype into this fight, but Royval has been in this position before. He knows how to manage distance, weather the storm, and create his own havoc. Stylistically, this is a great matchup, but it’s hard to ignore a price like this on a veteran like Royval who could be one of the tougher matchups for Van.
Alexandre Pantoja
1.32
3.17
Kai Kara-France
Alexandre Pantoja is slowly building a legendary UFC career. Since the inception of the flyweight division, he has become one of the best fighters in the division’s history. His growth has been nothing short of incredible and he hasn’t lost a fight since 2020. He’s 7-0 since then, with three title defenses and four bonuses. He’s become a fan favorite with his ferocious style and solid grappling.
Kai Kara-France was on the same Ultimate Fighter season as Pantoja and this seems like it’s been brewing for several years since their first fight on the show. Kara-France returned to the regional scene after TUF and ripped off five-straight wins to earn his way into the UFC. AFter going 3-0, he lost to Moreno and then Royval. He’s 8-4 in the UFC after losing to Moreno for a scond time and a controversial split decision to Amir Albazi. He earned his way into the title picture after finishing Steve Erceg in the first round.
At 1-2 in his last three, it’s understandable why Kara-France is a massive underdog against the champion. The UFC loves his style and wouldn’t mind seeing a strike-first fighter with big power as their new champion. Pantoja is exciting in his own way and should make this a war if it doesn’t end early. Kara-France’s best chance is to catch Pantoja with early power and finish the fight. If this goes five round, you have to a assume Pantoja will start to have his way as the battle of attrition and durability becomes important.
Ilia Topuria
1.18
4.36
Charles Oliveira
Ilia Topuria enters his first fight at lightweight as the biggest favorite at UFC 317, and for good reason. You could make the argument that Topuria, in his own way, is kind of underrated. The big reason for that is he keeps beating massive fan favorites and people tend to hate that. His finish of Max Holloway is one of the saddest in recent memory, but it’s a testament to just how good his boxing is in MMA.
He walks you down, finds his spots, and throws with big power when the time is right. The most impressive part of his game is the boxing sets up his submissions because he’s a solid wrestler and can level change when you least expect it. At 14-0 and 8-0 in the UFC, Topuria is slowly entering the generational level of UFC talent.
Charles Oliveira has become one of the biggest fan favorites over the years and enters this one after beating Michael Chandler again. His only two losses since 2018 are Islam Makhachev via submission and Arman Tsarukyan via split decision. Some believe he won that fight, and if it were a five round main event as it should have been, he probably steals the win the championship rounds.
This is a showdown of two exciting fighters, but the boxing could prove to be too much for Oliveira. While his striking has improved during his time with Chute Boxe, Topuria comes in as a true MMA boxer with elite power. His combinations are clean and Oliveira takes plenty of damage as he gets the fight to his advantageous areas. In this case, it’s hard to see Oliveira surviving Topuria’s onslaught. Oliveira’s best chance seems to be a grappling battle with a submission victory, but that’s easier said than done against Topuria. If Oliveira survives the first few rounds, we could be looking at one of the better title fights in recent years.
UFC 317 will not only be an exciting card, but every fight will dictate a major transition in the UFC. Whether it’s Topuria beating Oliveira for the lightweight title or Kara-France pulling off the major upset over Pantoja, the next chapter of two exciting divisions will be decided. The stakes don’t get any higher than this.
As always, don’t forget to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC 317!
