After some tough-to-swallow cards over the last few weeks, the UFC is back with UFC 320, an absolutely stacked PPV card.
Firstly, let’s address the elephant in the room. If it weren’t for the controversial end to the Jake Matthews fight, we would be up +2.8 Units on UFC Perth. It looked like the referee called the fight at the end of the first round, but Neil Magny looked okay after the bell, and the fight continued. Nobody said this would be easy. With that controversial loss, we end up with only +0.2 units, totaling +9.38 units for 2025.
UFC 320 should have many better spots to exploit, so keep an eye out for our UFC 320 best bets later in the week. For now, let’s take a look at the stacked main card.
UFC 320 MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Abus Magomedov
2.95
1.40
Joe Pyfer
After a learning some hard lessons against Jack Hermansson, Joe Pyfer is returning to form. He showed out against Kelvin Gastelum in a technical back-and-forth, and now he gets a rising fighter in Abus Magomedov. The power is real, he’s a well-rounded fighter, and he’s learned to manage the gas tank as the fight gets to the later rounds. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him get the finish if he gets off to a hot start.
After back to back losses against Caio Borralho and Sean Strickland, Magomedov started finding his footing against lesser competition and is now 3-0 in his last three fights. His most recent fight against Michel Pereira was getting attention for all the wrong reasons. It looked like a version of Pereira we’ve never seen before, but Magomedov took advantage of in a one-sided fight.
This fight will come down to who lands early and which fighter gets tired faster. Both guys have shown the inability to go hard for the whole fight, but Pyfer has shown the most recent improvements. Against Pereira, Magomedov was severly gassed despite the low output and there’s a good chance Pyfer’s strikes, especially to the body, do significant damage over three rounds.
Josh Emmett
4.40
1.22
Youssef Zalal
Youssef Zalal was one of the worst cuts in recent UFC history. His record was misleading, and he took on high-level talent, including the champion Ilia Topuria. He’s the only person to win a around against the superstar, and after his time away from the UFC, he’s come back with a vengeance. He’s on a 7-0 run and hasn’t lost since 2021. He’s got incredible defense, solid grappling, and technical striking. This will be his first taste of top-five level talent, but he has a good chance of coming away with the victory.
Josh Emmett was known for his power, but it seems to be leaving with age. He took on title hopeful Lerone Murphy in his last fight, and it was all too obvious that he’s lost a step, especially against top fighters in the division. This is a gatekeeper spot against a top contender, and it’s hard to see him catching Zalal with a big power show. Even if he tried to wrestle, which he hasn’t in the past, Zalal’s grappling and quick submission skills would make that look like a terrible idea. It would take a massive upset, probably by a flash knockout, for him to pull off this victory.
Jiri Prochazka
1.55
2.50
Khalil Rountree Jr.
This betting line reflects where both fighters are at in their careers. Jiri Prochazka is incredibly durable and has gotten a lot better with his footwork and defense, despite keeping his hands down. He’s on the cusp of another title shot, and his unorthodox training methods combined with his tricky striking has made him a fan favorite and dangerous fighter.
Khalil Rountree Jr made a bigger name for himself after putting up an incredible fight against Alex Pereira. He’s a solid kickboxer with improved muay thai, and his strikes are just as dangerous if they land. The issue in this one is the distance striking. Rountree enjoys a much tighter pocket, but Prochazka will force him to fight at range. He has long strikes and times they well, which could frustrate Rountree into making costly mistakes.
At 14-6, Rountree has earned more respect as an exciting fighter than a true contender. He got a quick title shot after beating underwhelming opponents, and the difference in competition showed over the course of his title fight. In the same light, it’s hard to see Prochazka struggling with Rountree’s striking the way Jamahal Hill did, given his better footwork and flashy striking. This a relatively close fight given both fighters’ chance of making a grave mistake, but Prochazka should be the fighter to take advantage of that sooner.
Merab Dvalishvili
1.26
4.00
Cory Sandhagen
Even though Merab Dvalishvili is in the running as one of the greatest bantamweights in UFC history, this line seems far too wide. Cory Sandhagen has good cardio, takedown defense and ring IQ, making him one of the more technical and dangerous fighters in the weight class.
The path to victory for Sandhagen is obvious, keep the fight standing, avoid the takedowns, and make Dvalishvili work from distance. Easier said than done, of course. Dvalishvili’s ability to constantly search for takedowns, coupled with his endless gas tank, makes him one of the hardest puzzles to solve. His boxing is getting better, and his durability has improved as well. In the past, we’ve seen him get stung by a few fighters, but that’s been less prominent has he rose to championship status.
Sandhagen has to start fast and do significant damage early on. Dvalishvili said he wants to showcase his striking in this fight, but if it gets too hot too fast, he’ll likely go to the wrestling. F Sandhagen can defend the takedowns, and that’s a big if, this fight is a lot close than the betting line suggests. He has good kicks at range, can work behind a jab, and wait for his opportunities to land fight-altering strikes. If Dvalishvili finds the takedowns early on, this could be a long night for Sandhagen.
Magomed Ankalaev
1.35
3.30
Alex Pereira
After winning the title as the underdog, Magomed Ankalaev enters the Alex Pereira rematch as a massive favorite. He has solid kickboxing but mixes in a solid wrestling game that allows him to finish the fight anywhere. He’s not like most Russian fighters, using his kicks at range to set everything else up. We’re seeing a growth in Russian strikers in the UFC, and Ankalaev is at the top of the food chain.
Pereira’s focus has been questioned going into this fight. After his massive rise to fame, he can be seen on social media hanging out with celebrities and living the fast life. At the same time, Pereira has always been true to the art and maintained focused in all of his UFC fights since arriving from Glory. He’s fought the best fighters at middleweight and light heavyweight, and not gets a chance as the number one contender to get his title back.
At range, this was a pretty even fight first time around. The difference maker was Ankalaev being able to control range, land good leg kicks, and find ways to win minutes against the cage. The best way to slow down Pereira is not allowing to set up the big left hand, and Ankalaev did that exceptionally well in the first fight. If he gets caught, this could be a completely different fight, but there’s a good chance we see something similar as their first fight, with Ankalaev winning minutes and landing the more technical shots over the course of the fight.
UFC 320 BEST BETS
Soriano / Hardy / Pyfer Parlay @ 2.10 (1.5 Units)
Punahele Soriano is a different fighter at welterweight. Not only can he weight bully smaller fighters, but he’s got power on the feet and can maintain control on the ground. There’s a good chance we get a finish here.
Veronica Hardy should be able to dominate Brogan Walker. These fighters are on different ends of the spectrum, and we should see that in a dominant decision for Hardy.
Joe Pyfer has learned to manage his gas tank, and he’s still one of the most dangerous fighters in the first round. Even if Abus Magomedov survives, it’s hard to see him matching the volume and power on the feet. Pyfer is also a solid wrestler and should be able to hold his own on the ground.
Macy Chiasson / Magomed Ankalaev Parlay @ 2.11
Macy Chiasson can fight the parent strength against Yana Santos and should have a much better path to victory on the ground. We’re hoping she can find the takedowns and land some solid ground and pound.
Ankalaev is hitting his prime and looked so good in the last fight. With all the rumours about Pereira, I’m interested to see if this fight goes worse than the first meeting.
Joe Pyfer to Finish @ 1.80
Pyfer has been known to be a finisher, but it’s been tough sledding against solid competition. Against Magomedov, he could be too much to handle and be better everywhere. I’m willing to take a chance on him in this spot.
Fight not to Go the Distance: Mix vs. Wiklacz @ 2.05
Patchy Mix should be trying to make up for his last fight, and this is a buy-low spot. Instead of taking him directly, this covers us on a flash submission by his opponent at a pretty good price.
Edmen Shahbazyan in Round 1 @ 2.50 (0.5 Units)
If Edmen Shahbazyan wins this fight, it should be early. He’ll be hitting the gas pedal early and trying to avoid the ground. If it gets out of the first, the gas tank could be tough. He’s been trying to finish early, and we’ll take another chance here.
Veronica Hardy to Finish @ 4.00 (0.25 Units)
Hardy says she wants to find a finish, and this is a pretty lopsided fight. At this price, taking a chance on a late finish of any kind is pretty solid.
Big Money Parlay:
Pyfer / Basharat / Shahbazyan / Chiasson / Mix / Hardy @ 5.07 (0.25 Units)
UFC 320 will be a breath of fresh air when it comes to competitive, high-level fights. The UFC is a business with a massive roster, so when we get a stacked card like this, there’s more appreciation for it. Two title fights, plenty of contenders, and an entire card of hungry fighters looking to move up the UFC ladder. It doesn’t get any better than this. Don’t forget to check back later in the week on SlotsFighter.com for our UFC 320 best bets.
