UFC Vegas 104 was a nice surprise for the naysayers and a great night for UFC bettors.
For us here at SlotsFighter, we’re up another +2.23 units for a total of +4.36 since we started doing this article last week. Congratulations if you’ve tailed!
To quickly recap, Kevin Vallejos was an easy win for almost everyone in the MMA betting space, but we took it further with the first-round finish. Cash it. The next one we should be proud of, even though it was for a half-unit, is Sam Hughes pulling off the split decision win.
As for the losses, Ryan Spann looked terrible in his heavyweight debut but we can eat the loss with a 2.96 price tag. We missed the parlay with Marvin Vettori losing to Roman Dolidze, even though we hit the other two legs with Vallejos and Andre Lima.
400
150% / 600€
This week the UFC will travel to London for an early card. European fans rejoice! Let’s take a look at the main card for UFC London:
Leon Edwards 2.36 vs. Sean Brady 1.61
Sometimes, it feels like the public only sees what happened recently. Sean Brady is 2-0 since losing the Belal Muhammad, beating Kelvin Gastelum and Gilbert Burns. Both wins are respectable but Gastelum and Burns were past their primes. He’s got a solid grappling game but how will he get the fight to the ground?
Leon Edwards has been doing his thing with the time off and must be dialed in for this fight. Before losing the title to Muhammad, Edwards beat Kamaru Usman, defended the title against him, and then beat Colby Covington. His development was impressive and he surprised many people with his wrestling defense. It will be interesting to see if Brady can get this fight where he needs to if he wants to be successful. With Edwards’ elite striking and improved grappling defense, seeing him as a 2.40 underdog is surprising.
Jan Blachowicz 3.35 vs. Carlos Ulberg 1.34
Jan Blachowicz has been at the top of the light-heavyweight food chain for a long time. If it weren’t for shoulder surgery and other nagging injuries, he could have been a more active fighter. Unfortunately, at 42 years old, he’s taking on a booming star in Carlos Ulberg.
Ulberg has put together a solid record at light heavyweight, despite some spoon-feeding, and has looked the part of a top contender with every passing fight. This is the perfect test for both fighters. While Blachowicz can test himself against a rising talent in the UFC, Ulberg will be taking on his toughest test yet with a solid combination of wrestling and kickboxing.
Kevin Holland 2.05 vs. Gunnar Nelson 1.80
Was anyone else a little surprised to see Gunnar Nelson a favorite against Kevin Holland? Yes, there is some recency bias with Holland losing to two solid fighters in Roman Dolidze and Reinier de Ridder, but they’re destined for the top five in the division. He took Jack Della Maddalena to a split decision and Michael Page to a decision. While he struggles against elite competition, he’s done well against the UFC’s rest.
Nelson has been MIA since submitting Bryan Barbarena in 2023. He has two fights in the last five years and lost to Gilbert Burns and Leon Edwards in 2019. He has always been a solid grappler and improved his striking after working with SBG Ireland. With such a long layoff, it will be interesting to see if he can live up to the favorite price tag against a seasoned veteran like Holland.
Molly McCann 2.50 vs. Alexia Thainara 1.55
This is primarily a showcase fight for the UK crowd with Molly McCann taking on newcomer Alexia Thainara out of the Ribas fight camp. At 11-1, Thainara made her way to the UFC through Dana White’s Contender Series and hasn’t lost since 2019 against Bruna Brasil. She’s a solid grappler but her improvements as a striker helped secure an opportunity with the UFC.
McCann is in an interesting spot. She’s 2-3 in her last five but lost to Brasil, Julija Stoliarenko and Erin Blanchfield. She’s hard to finish on the feet but got submitted in two of her losses. She needs to fight with a better in-cage IQ and use her power to find a path to victory. With her range disadvantage in this fight, she will work hard for her spots and pick them carefully.
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Jordan Vucenic 1.25 vs. Chris Duncan 4.00
Chris Duncan is 3-1 since his second stint on Dana White’s Contender Series and won his last fight via submission against Bolaji Oki. Manuel Torres is a respectable loss, and he will look for his first win in 2025 against the Cage Warriors star Jordan Vucenic.
Vucenic made his UFC debut against Guram Kutateladze last August and did well enough in the fight. He was on a 4-0 streak before that, and only lost to Paul Hughes in a title fight in 2022. Not only did Vucenic beat Hughes before their rematch, but the loss is aging beautifully after Hughes’ performance against Usman Nurmagomedov in the PFL. There’s a reason Vucenic enters this fight as such a big favorite and it should not disappoint.
Nathaniel Wood 2.35 vs. Morgan Charriere 1.625
Nathaniel Wood is one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC. Since moving up from bantamweight, Wood has put together a 4-1 record and beaten solid competition. The weight cuts were tough on him and moving up in weight may have saved his career. He’s a solid kickboxer who attacks all three levels and has used his wrestling to secure victories in the past. That will come in handy against Morgan Charriere, a fighter who seems to always be in close fights.
Charriere blasted onto the UFC scene after a solid debut against Manolo Zecchini. He finished the fight with a beautiful body kick in the first round, which created a lot of hype in his next fight. The UFC gave him Chepe Mariscal, which ended up being too much too fast. Last time out, Charriere beat Gabriel Miranda with a beautiful left hook. Charriere has earned a performance bonus in all three UFC fights so far, and it would not be surprising to see these two earn another one in London.
UFC London has all the makings of a solid, surprising card. With plenty of underdogs to consider, there’s also some betting value for the degenerates Here at SlotsFighter, we do our best to break down the main card and provide some best bets to consider ahead of fight night.
Best Bets for UFC London
Leon Edwards
2.30
1.64
Sean Brady
Leon Edwards to Win @ 2.30 (0.5 Units, shop around)
Sean Brady is a hungry fighter with solid grappling and a threatening double leg. This is a number play. If Leon Edwards isn’t affected by the staph infection circling, he should make this competitive. The takedown and submission threats are real, so hedging with a Brady submission win might make sense. Edwards has been training for the best in the world for years and should have a serious advantage on the feet. Let’s take a chance on the former champion.
Jan Blachowicz
3.40
1.33
Carlos Ulberg
Jan Blachowicz to Win 3.40 (0.5 Units)
This line is too wide. The fight will only be three rounds, and Jan Blachowicz has the grappling advantage and is a good kickboxer. Carlos Ulberg has good power, but he’s hittable and struggles as the fight goes on when he takes damage. This is by far Ulberg’s hardest fight and Blachowicz should be able to complete if he doesn’t get knockout or has any serious lingering injuries.
Jai Herbert
1.89
1.92
Chris Padilla
Chris Padilla to Win @ 1.92
Jai Herbert was a big finisher earlier in his career, but he didn’t look the same. Chris Padilla is riding a five-fight win streak and could be the more well-rounded fighter here. He’s got a wrestling base that could help here, and he hasn’t been finished on the feet since 2016. If this is competitive on the feet and Padilla finds ways to score with pressure and control, this should be a sneaky spot in London for the underdog.
Prelim Parlay: Guram Kutateladze / Shauna Bannon / Christian Leroy Duncan @ 2.27 (0.5 Units)
Guram Kutateladze is in great shape and always brings a grueling style. He should ride out an easy decision here.
Shauna Bannon gets a slight hometown crowd and some would argue that Puja Tomar got lucky last time out. There’s a six-inch reach advantage for the better and more active striker and this is an easy fight you could hedge with a live bet.
Christian Leroy Duncan might struggle against the best fighters in the division, he should be able to deal with the middle-of-the-pack fighters quite easily. There’s a good chance he finds a finish here, so feel free to shop around for the best line on that as well.
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