UFC 315 was a solid card for MMA fans, but since we were unable to get our public bets up for the week, we’ll be starting fresh with UFC Vegas 106.
We’re currently sitting at +4.90 Units and will look to add where we can. Off the bat, this card is a little dangerous in terms of value, but that just means we’ll have to dive a little deeper. Let’s take a look at the main card and be sure to check back later in the week for our UFC Vegas 106 best bets.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Gabriel Green
2.85
1.44
Matheus Camilo
This is a tale of two fighters. Gabe Green is returning from a long injury layoff and fighting at lightweight, while Matheus Camilo is coming into the UFC on a six-fight win streak at 24 years old. Camilo was a part of the Lookin’ For a Fight show and was against the guy Dana White was scouting, but he ended up getting the contract.
While this fight stands out as a tough one to bet on, Green’s chin has been an issue in the past, and now he’s dropping to a lower weight class. Camilo will be hungry to get a big finish in his debut and could take advantage of Green trying to shake the cobwebs off. On the flip side, taking time away and moving down in weight could be exactly what the doctor ordered for Green, who has been outsized in most of his UFC welterweight fights.
Julian Erosa
2.54
1.54
Melquizael Costa
Julian Erosa has been riding a high after solid performances against veterans like Darren Elkins, Christian Rodriguez, and Ricardo Ramos. If those were favourable matchups, the UFC is putting him in the up-and-coming category as he takes on Melquizael Costa. He’s also riding a three-fight win streak with names like Rodriguez, Andre Fili, and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke.
Erosa has far more high-end experience, but Costa certainly looks the part. He’s a great grappler with impressive cardio, and this could turn into a fight of the night contender. For both guys, getting out of the first round will be imperative. While Erosa should have an edge on the feet with his distance striking, Costa could find ways to win the fight via clinch work and his ground game.
If Erosa can stay on the outside and distance strike while waiting for his moment to pounce, he should be able to take the win, but Costa’s ability to close the distance and get the fight where he wants it has been his best asset in the UFC.
Dustin Stolzfus
3.50
1.32
Nursulton Ruziboev
Of all the fights on the card, these odds make the most sense. Nursulton Ruziboev has silenced the doubters every step of the way. With his only loss against Joaquin Buckley, he’s well on his way to the next level of the UFC. Dustin Stolzfus has been alternating wins and losses, and the competition level is slightly below Ruziboev’s.
This fight comes down to the striking. It will be interesting to see the scrambling, but Ruziboev should have a power advantage on the feet and could finish this fight if it stays standing. Stolzfus was finished in four of his five UFC fights, including two via knockout in his last two.The only path to victory for Stolzfus here is submitting an exhausted Ruziboev, but this fight likely doesn’t get that far.
Sodiq Yusuff
2.05
1.80
Mairon Santos
Of all the underdogs, Sodiq Yusuff might be one of the better options. His losses have aged well, and Mairon Santos is coming off a controversial decision win after his appearance on The Ultimate Fighter.
Yusuff should have the volume edge on the feet, and it works in his favour that Santos hasn’t landed a takedown in the UFC. This fight could stay on the feet for all three rounds, but maybe a surprising takedown by Yusuff could secure him the win. Francis Marshall found ways to make it competitive, and level changing was a big part. Santos has been on record saying he lost the fight, too.
Yusuff’s camp should know that Santos wants to keep the fight standing, and as much as Yusuff likes to find the big knockouts, surprising with a grappling-heavy gameplan could secure him the win, especially since the MMA Gods owe Santos a loss.
Rodolfo Bellato
1.19
4.90
Paul Craig
It’s crazy to see these odds for Paul Craig, someone who has beaten the current champion and has wins over big names and prior champions. The big issue here is that Rodolfo Bellato is younger, durable, and will bring the fire on the feet. He was in a close split draw against Jimmy Crute. That fight proved he has good striking, scrambling ability, and endurance to go a hard three rounds despite taking damage.
Craig’s gameplan is obvious, but it will come down to how well he deals with the striking difference and his entries to get the fight to the ground. Based on Bellato’s previous fights, Craig’s best chance is to outlast him, then force him to work out of bad positions till he can take the back or lock up a submission. It’s not out of this world to see Bellato follow up his strikes with ground and pound, but get caught in a triangle. Outside of those chances, Bellato has a serious edge here to show off his skills.
Gilbert Burns
6.75
1.11
Michael Morales
Chances are, most MMA fans are going to be insulted by this Gilbert Burns betting line. Usually, this gap means there’s no path to victory for one fighter. In this case, judging by Michael Morales’ strengths and Burns’ losses, a big shot on the feet or a grappling-heavy submission attempt are both paths to victory for Burns.
The major difference here is the athleticism, age, and length. Morales has been brought along well by the UFC, but his best win so far is Neil Magny. There is a massive difference between Burns and Magny. The problem for me is, can Burns keep up with Morales for five rounds? Morales comes in with a 92% takedown defense, +2.00/min striking differential, and an eight-inch reach advantage. Those are tough things to overcome for a 38-year-old veteran with plenty of mileage.
UFC Vegas 106 will be a lighter card in general compared to UFC 315, but MMA fans will look forward to the return of Gilbert Burns. There’s also plenty of prospects to watch as the card unfolds, and we’ll be back with our best bets later in the week. Ruziboev is 3-1 in the UFC and, outside of Buckley, hasn’t lost since 2019. Based on the numbers and paths to victory, it’s difficult to see how Stolzfus can pull off the win.
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