UFC 318 was a memorable card, but as for our best bets, Kevin Holland sold hard. The fight IQ played a major role in his downfall, which also affected our night in a big way.
Instead of being well over 10+ units so far, we now sit at +8.77. There is a lesson in going too hard on one fighter. While there are times it’ll work, Holland against a durable vet was not the right call, but we’ll aim to get it back at UFC Abu Dhabi.
But here’s where it gets even better…
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To help with making your picks for the SlotsFighter’s Pick’em contest for UFC Abu Dhabi, let’s take a detailed look at the main card. As always, don’t forget to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC Abu Dhabi.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Robert Whittaker
1.65
2.30
Reinier De Ridder
De Ridder has made quick work of his first few UFC opponents and now gets a perennial contender in Whittaker. He has three finishes so far, and his most recent win over Bo Nickal put him on the map. He landed a perfect body shot to put the wrestler out for good.
Whittaker comes back after a gruesome loss to Khamzat Chimaev after his jaw was snapped in a submission loss. Before that, Whittaker was riding a two-fight win streak and looked good in both fights.
Breaking down this fight, it comes down to whether De Ridder can find a finish against Whittaker or if the experience will be too much. De Ridder will have a significant reach advantage, but Whittaker is a solid striker and has faced lengthy strikers in the past. However, Whittaker has been chin-checked in the past.
Both guys are efficient strikers, but Whittaker’s 59% defense outweighs De Ridder’s 44% in a big way. At the same time, De Ridder has landed 60% of his strikes while Whittaker sits at 43%. If the striking ends up close, De Ridder could opt for a takedown to try and score the submission, but Whittaker sports an 81% takedown defense.
Whittaker seems like a good look, because De Ridder has only four knockouts in 20 fights, and both his losses are also by knockout. This comes down to whether Whittaker can find a finish or dominate on the feet for three rounds, or if De Ridder finds a takedown and steals a submission victory.
Petr Yan
1.24
4.10
Marcus McGhee
Sometimes, you see a big number on a fighter and you want to do all the necessary research to see if there’s an angle to find value. In this case, McGhee has limited ways to beat Yan. In terms of boxing, Yan should be way cleaner and more technical.
The thing about McGhee is how good he is defensively. He has a 100% takedown defense, 64% striking defense, and has only absorbed 2.83 strikes/minute. With his level of competition growing, these numbers are not only respectable but present an interesting matchup for Yan.
The thing that stands out the most is the level of competition for Yan. His numbers are reflective of much tougher competition, but his 54% striking accuracy and 58% defense are solid. McGhee has been able to put it on his past opponents, but Yan won’t be phased. He’s faced power and volume, and the main question to ask is if McGhee will stay competitive for all three rounds or falter under the relentless pressure of Yan’s striking.
Yan via decision seems like a safe play, but based on the history, accuracy, and numbers, there is a chance that Yan could find a late finish in low kicks, body strikes, and sheer volume add up throughout the fight.
Asu Almabayev
1.90
1.98
Jose Ochoa
If the first two fights were a little tough to call, this one might be the hardest. The main reason for that is that Ochoa’s power has already translated over to the UFC, and we saw that against Cody Durden. Almabayev was recently finished via strikes against Manel Kape, but before that, he was 4-0 in the UFC.
The line suggests this fight is close, and it comes down to how well Almabayev can weather the storm and do damage of his own. Both guys are fairly equal across major categories, and it’s hard to give Ochoa too much credit for his 64% striking defense when his last opponent was Durden.
Almabayev is the more experienced fighter with a solid resume. He should be able to survive the early onslaught before finding success. Ochoa has never been finished but has also never won a decision. If you’re playing it safe and smart, Almabayev via decision seems like the most likely outcome, barring an outrageous finish.
Shara Magomedov
1.14
6.00
Marc Andre Barriault
We got from three tougher calls in terms of decision or finish to one a little easier. Magomedov is becoming a much better fighter with experience, and this is a massive step down from Michael Page. Barriault is coming off a career-reviving finish over Bruno Silva, but it’s been widely known that Silva has had one foot out the door for a long time.
Before the win, Barriault was 0-3 in 2024 while Magomedov was 3-0. If Barriault wants to have success in this fight, he has to change levels and look for takedowns. Magomedov’s striking is not only impressive, but he throws plenty of volume. Barriault was finished in two of the three losses before the Silva fight, and this one could be much of the same if he’s not careful.
Magomedov not only seems like the right side in this fight, but the UFC is giving him a winnable opponent who plays right into his hands. Barriault will be aggressive, and he eats 5.57 strikes/min. Shara lands 5.87 strikes/minute with 62% accuracy. The way this looks on paper, unless Barriault can get an early takedown to weather the storm and do damage of his own, Magomedov could easily find the first-round finish to get back on track in the UFC.
Nikita Krylov
1.56
2.55
Bogdan Guskov
This main card has everything you could ask for. Not only are there competitive fights across the board, but Krylov is getting big favorite status against Guskov. This seems almost shocking after his previous fight against Dominick Reyes.
What this line suggests is that the books think the Reyes fight was not only an outlier, but Guskov’s striking isn’t on the same level. However, Guskov has 10 knockouts in 20 professional fights. Krylov has 16 submission wins, which could prove to be the difference maker in a fight with Guskov.
The size difference is borderline identical, which means this will come down to who gets the better start, as both guys get tired and it becomes far more competitive over three rounds. If you haven’t seen Krlov vs. Reyes, that should be a good indication of where he’s been lately.
Unless you still believe Reyes is a title challenger today, Krylov’s performance was downright scary. With that said, it only makes sense to consider Guskov as the massive underdog and hope that he can get the finish on the feet. As for Krylov, it looks like submission could be the next step since there is plenty of betting value to go with his 16 career submission wins.
UFC Abu Dhabi is a fairly good card with solid prelim fights that feature Bryce Mitchell. Don’t forget about the start time. It’s going to be an early day of MMA for most fans. Did this information help with your SlotsFighter pick’em entry? We look forward to setting up future pick’em contests, but we’ll start with UFC. As always, don’t forget to check back in later in the week for best bets.
