We’re back after a week off with UFC Vegas 107.
We came out positive with UFC Vegas 106 and are sitting at +6.35 Units in just under two months of tracking. Not too shabby.
This week, we’re back in the UFC Apex for a women’s contender showdown between Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber. Outside of that, there are a few exciting fights and a bunch of up-and-comers looking to make their mark in the UFC.
Let’s take a look at the main card for UFC Vegas 107, and be sure to check back later in the week for our best bets.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Zach Reese
1.42
2.95
Dusko Todorovic
Zach Reese has just four fights in the UFC but is coming in as a massive favorite against Dusko Todorovic. Reese hasn’t looked incredible in the UFCk, but Todorovic is 3-5 in the UFC with four first round losses. Reese lost to Azamat Bekoev last time out, but that loss will continue to age well. At 2-2 in the UFC, Reese has looked dominant in his wins, but showed flaws in his losses.
Can Todorovic land a takedown? His best path to victory is weathering the early storm and finding ways to make this a gritty grappling match. Reese has been taken down in four of his five UFC fights and maintains a 33% takedown defense. If Reese can avoid the takedowns, his 77” reach will be a major problem for Todorovic as he tries to maintain range and avoid the big power shots.
Todorovic has three UFC wins, but the combined record of all of his opponents is 3-14. He excels against fringe UFC fighters, but Reese could prove to be too much on the feet.
Dustin Jacoby
1.54
2.54
Bruno Lopes
Dustin Jacoby is a solid MMA kickboxer with GLORY experience under his belt. He flows well, pushes the pace and maintains good pressure from striking range. While fighters have found ways to counter Jacoby’s pressure and combinations, he finds ways to land with volume and has scored four first round finishes in 15 UFC fights.
Bruno Lopes entered the UFC via the Dana White Contender Series as the LFA champion. He’s versatile with a solid ground game and has shown killer instinct with 11 finishes in his career. This will be a tough fight for Jacoby because Lopes can survive on the feet and make it a gritty fight for three rounds.
If Jacoby gasses or finds his way to bottom position, Lopes will take full advantage of those positions. While Jacoby looks like a big favorite, this one could be a lot closer than the odds suggest.
Billy Ray Goff
1.29
3.70
Ramiz Brahimaj
With Oban Elliot struggling to get his visa issues sorted, Billy Ray Goff enters on short notice to take on Ramiz Brahimaj. Goff came into the UFC as the CES and Cage Titans champion, but lost his UFC debut to Trey Waters.
Brahimaj’s best chance is to find an early takedown and lock up a submission. That’s his bread and butter and it ensures he won’t have to see the later rounds where he tends to lose energy. The Themba Gorimbo fight is the perfect example of how a fighter was able to exploit Brahimaj’s ability to deal with the stand up grind for three rounds.
If this fight doesn’t hit the ground, we could see Goff make a huge statement on short notice. He has 7 finishes via KO/TKO and will be looking for the right opportunity against Brahimaj.
Mateusz Gamrot
1.64
2.30
Ludovit Klein
Ludovit Klein is definitely gaining some value in his betting line, with Mateusz Gamrot being his toughest fight to date. This is a pretty easy fight to breakdown, but it’s also a testament to why Klein is gaining some traction in the market.
If Klein doesn’t get taken down, he should be able to land powerful kicks to slow down Gamrot, and find ways to take over the fight with strong combinations and heavy pressure. Gamrot is also a good pressure fighter, but he’s struggled with good strikers.
After going 13-0 in KSW, Gamrot is just 7-3 in the UFC with two split decisions and one unanimous. The Beneil Dariush fight is a great example of a good grappler with powerful hands finidng ways around Gamrot’s pressure wrestling. Can Klein employ a similar gameplan? That’s what it will take to pull off the major upset.
Erin Blanchfield
1.42
2.95
Maycee Barber
Erin Blanchfield against Maycee Barber is one of the more higher-level WMMA fights we’ve seen in a while without a title on the line. Both fighters are young, hungry and looking for a way to get to the top.
After losing to Manon Fiorot, Blanchfield came back strong against Rose Namajunas. She has the edge in terms of strength of schedule, but Barber has fought plenty of UFC talent. She’s 9-2 in the UFC but hasn’t lost since 2021.
Her most recent loss was against Alexa Grasso, which is another example of a well-aging loss. The glaring hole in Barber’s game is the 53% takedown defense, something Blanchfield will look to exploit. The biggest questions coming into this fight is how much better is Blanchfield’s striking, and how much better is Barber’s grappling and takedown defense.
In terms of improvement and skill set, it’s hard to go against Blanchfield as a favorite. She’s coming off a fight with the number contender in the division who just lost a close fight to the champion. Blanchfield should be motivated to get to the next level with a big win, and it will take some serious volume, pressure and discipline from Barber to pull off the upset.
UFC VEGAS 107 BEST BETS
Zach Reese to Win and Andreas Gustafsson to Win @ 2.27
While neither fighter is the most polished for the UFC level, we’re fading their opponents. Reese takes on Dusko Todorovic who seems on the cusp of getting cut from the UFC. He has a chance to pull off the upset, but I don’t see the durability holding up.
Trevin Giles comes in on short notice against Gustafsson, and he requested a 10-pound increase for a 180 catchweight. Gustafsson has a full camp while Giles is always questionable in terms of durability and endurance. This is a good spot to fade both fighters.
+3.5 Spread Parlay:
Vieira +3.5 / Holobaugh +3.5 / Filho +3.5 @ 3.81 (0.25 Units)
We’re trying something new here. In three fights where the favorite is a little overvalued, but could still win most of the time, we’re taking a few interesting underdogs to keep it competitive and steal a round.
Vieira is coming off a fight with Kayla Harrison, where she did solid damage given the opponent. Holobaugh is the much better striker here, and if he can keep it on the feet for even one round, we should be able to hit this. Lastly, Allan Nascimento has been away for two years and has been injury-prone; if there’s any ring rust at all, we could steal the first round before things get competitive.
4-Leg Parlay:
Reese / Goff / Oki / Blanchfield @ 3.26 (0.5 Units)
We already talked about Reese. Bolaji Oki is getting a very short-notice fighter with whom he matches up even better.
Billy Ray Goff just needs to avoid staying on his back against Ramiz Brahimaj, who tends to gas out late in fights.
Erin Blanchfield is ready for the big time and looks close to a title shot.
UFC Vegas 107 may not have the big names we’re used to, but there are plenty of fun fights showcasing above-average talent. With UFC 316 right around the corner, this is the perfect card to get our feet wet as we get to the main course next week. Don’t forget to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC Vegas 107.
UFC Vegas 107 may not have the big names we’re used to, but there are plenty of fun fights showcasing above average talent. With UFC 316 right around the corner, this is the perfect card to get our feet wet as we get to the main course next week. Don’t forget to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC Vegas 107.
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