UFC 319 was a big of a drag, with us doing so well picking underdogs, but struggling with favorites. To pick Lerone Murphy and Tim Elliot, but still come out just +0.29 units is unacceptable. We ride into chine with +10.345 units.
UFC Shanghai is somewhat of a showcase card with a few good names to help carry the card. Mingyang Zhang is a big name right now and he’ll get another showcase fight against Johnny Walker.
As always, check out our full card breakdown, and don’t forget to check back in for our UFC Shanghai best bets.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN:
Taiyilake Nueraji
1.23
4.30
Kiefer Crosbie
This will be a showcase fight for Nurejari. There’s not much to breakdown for Crosbie. He has never one i the UFC and is certainly in the hot seat. The UFC wants to challenge, but also likes using these spots to promote other fights.
That will be about Crosbit mixing it up and avoiding the big shot, but Nurejali has solid experience already and should be able to kick off the card in style.
Sumudaerji
1.60
2.40
Kevin Borjas
This could be a Sumudaerji showcase fight, but Kevin Borjas could put up a tough fight. He won his last fight earlier this year, but lost to Alessandro Costa and Joshua Van before that. He should have good striking, and his durability is solid. Previous opponents have been able to take advantage of grappling scrambles and get good positions.
Will Sumudaerji consider a wrestling-heavy gameplan? He’s been training with Team Alpha Male and should have the length to dominate on the ground. Long limbs always make for solid submission attempts. The main issue with Sumudaerji is that since he returned from injury, he’s lost a step. He won his last fight via split decision, but he lost three straight before that, dating back to 2022. The competition was much tougher, but it still says a lot about where he’s currently at in his UFC career.
If this fight stays standing, it’ll be anyone’s fight. Both guys have shown weakness on the ground, but both guys also have had limited success on the ground throughout their careers. While the striking is wide open, the better grappler and wrestler should have a huge advantage in this one, and based on their camps and recency bias, I would lean toward Sumudaerji.
Sergei Pavlovich
1.40
3.05
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Sergei Pavlovich surprised a few by not being able to finish Jairzinho Rozenstruik, but he was dominant nonetheless. Some say it’s because they were friends outside of the cage, and it may have played a role in his ability to fight harder. His only two losses in the last five years are Alexander Volkov, another friend, and the champion, Tom Aspinall.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta continues to surprise everyone in the UFC. Everyone tries to fade him, but he keeps showing up. Whether it’s good game-planning or skill, he’s shown great examples of both on his five-fight win streak. He will have to do the same thing in this fight.
Cortes-Acosta might be the better boxer in this fight, but Pavlovich has real power and has showcased all-around skill over his last few fights. Both guys have used wrestling against the right fighter, so it will be interesting to see who can win those battles in this fight. In terms of the most underrated fight on this card, this has to be it.
Brian Ortega
3.25
1.35
Aljamain Sterling
While Aljamain Sterling has been putting in work with Merab Dvalishvili, where has Brian Ortega been? This is a tough fight for Ortega, given their recent fights.
Ortega last fought in September last year when he lost to Diego Lopes. He’ 1-3 in his previous four fights, and that dates back to 2021. Yes, the competition was fierce, but there is an argument that Ortega simply hasn’t been developing as fast as the division. This is a better matchup for him, given the lack of elite striking, but Sterling always brings his best and is a tough fighter overall.
Sterling lost a tough fight to Movsar Evloev last time out, but has been on an elite run since his title fight against Sean O’Malley. At featherweight, the weight cut is less brutal, and he proved that his wrestling is still effective against Calvin Kattar. Against Ortega, he’ll have to be careful on the ground, given Ortega’s solid grappling, but he, too, is a solid grappler and should be able to avoid any dangerous positions. Sterling has never been submitted, which makes this a tougher fight for Ortega.
Is Ortega’s striking good enough to keep it close with Sterling? The more you analyze this fight, the more you realize Sterling is well-rounded, and it will be tough for Ortega to win any area of the fight. Ortega would not only need to have much better boxing, but also be able to make the most of bad positions to lock up a submission. That will be tough.
Johnny Walker
3.70
1.29
Zhang Mingyang
Johnny Walker is doing the UFC a favour and playing bad guy on the road in China. He has no business in this fight, given his recent run, but being a good company could help you stick around longer than you should. It’s not a secret, Walker’s durability is questionable. He has been beaten brutally in his last three losses, and his last winning run was at the end of 2022 and, start of 2023.
Mingyang Zhang is slowly becoming a fan favorite. In China, he could be a rising star. After spending plenty of time earning his chops, Zhang hasn’t lost since 2019 and has won over 10 fights straight via finish. He’s an absolute powerhouse and should be able to finish this fight if it stays on the feet.
Walker’s best chance is to take it to the ground. He simply can’t be trusted on his feet, and Zhang has real power. If he can find ways to close the distance, use his clinch and takedowns, he could grapple his way to a win or find a submission. Regardless of how this plays out, Zhang should get the finish if the fight stays standing.
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BETS
Sterling / Nueraji / Mingyang Parlay @ 2.01 (1.5 Units)
Aljamain Sterling almost had his fight cancelled, but he and Brian Ortega will fight at lightweight after Ortega struggled to make weight. Even before weigh-ins, Ortega’s best chance is usually a submission, but Sterling is an elite grappler and should have an advantage on the feet. He’s a solid parlay play on this card.
Taiyilake Nueraji is in a showcase fight against the struggling Kiefer Crosbie. It’s hard to see Crosbie going into enemy territory and pulling off an upset based on his UFC track record. I expect a solid performance from Nueraji.
Zhang Mingyang is a blooming star in the UFC with insane finishes and solid volume. He gets to take on Johnny Walker on home soil, and the UFC is giving him every opportunity for a highlight reel finish. Outside of a strong wrestling and grappling performance from Walker, this should be Mingyang’s fight on the feet. Be ready to take Walker live if this goes south.
Su Young You to Win @ 1.83
You is a good grappler and will have opportunities to take this fight to the ground. He’s a slight favorite, which is a good sign, so we’ll take the better path to victory at a good price against lesser competition.
Kevin Borjas to Win @ 2.45 (0.25 Units)
Kevin Borjas is a solid fighter with a toughness edge and should make this fight closer than the line suggests. Sumudaerji hasn’t been the same since the injury, and even though this fight is in China, Borjas should make this competitive.
Austin Hubbard to Win @ 3.15 (0.25 Units)
Hubbard is a solid fighter, who I think won his previous fight, and should have a competitive fight here at a great price. He’s faced much tougher competition and is in a redemption spot to play spoiler in China. He’s super durable, so we’re hoping for a three-round grind.
Westin Wilson to Win @ 8.50 (0.15 Units)
This is a play primarily on a terrible line, against a fighter who is way below the talent he’s
already faced. He has a path to victory, which is enough for this price.
Kavanaugh / Pereira / Pavlovich / Nueraji / Sterling / Mingyang Parlay @ 5.47 (0.15 Units)
All of these fighters have solid paths to victory, and we’ll have another chalky parlay hoping to increase the bankroll a little bit.
UFC 319 was a special night, and now we’re getting an early card from China. There are a few names, but this is mostly a card designed to appease the Chinese MMA fans. They have their top dog in the main event and plenty of up-and-coming talent scattered on the card. This card might not be worth waking up at 4 am for, but the main card should be exciting.
