After a short break from the UFC, we’re back with two more cards in 2025, and it’s an absolute banger. Before we get into UFC 323, let’s revisit UFC Qatar, where we had another winning weekend. We come out of the weekend with +1.195 Units and now sit at a comfortable +23.475 Units heading into the final card of the year.
Now we have to keep the good times rolling with a stacked UFC 323 card featuring two title fights and plenty of big-name stars and rising prospects looking to make an impact. The main card is one of the best of the year. Let’s take a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back in later in the week for our UFC 323 best bets.
UFC 323 MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Jan Blachowicz
1.76
2.10
Ogden Guskov
Jan Blachowicz’s title run was legendary. Fast forward to 2025, he’s less active, 1-3-1 in his last five, but still taking on top fighters in the division. He lost decisions to Carlos Ulberg and Alex Pereira, fought to a draw against Magomed Ankalaev, and now gets the surging Bogdan Guskov.
Guskov is 4-1 in the UFC and on a four-fight win streak. He lost to Volkan Oezdemir via submission in his debut, but he’s been on a finishing streak ever since then. He most recently finished Nikita Krylov in the first round and is now starting to get former champions.
Guskov packs a punch, but Blachowicz survived Alex Pereira. Blachowicz is a good technical kickboxer and is able to avoid the finishing blows against some of the best fighters in the UFC. Will Guskov be able to find the chin? It seems like he’s going to have to work extra hard to find the finish, and if this goes three rounds, the distance favours the veteran who has done this countless times. We also can’t forget the ‘Polish Power’, with Blachowicz packing some serious power of his own. This is a fun way to kick off the main card.
Henry Cejudo
3.25
1.35
Payton Talbott
It’s crazy to see Henry Cejudo at that price, but it’s well-deserved at this point in his career. He’s 2-3 in his last five, dating back to 2019, but has lost his previous three UFC fights against Aljamain Sterling, Merab Dvalishvili, and Yadong Song. While he’s still fighting top contenders, it’s obvious that Cejudo has taken a step back. The striking just isn’t up to par, and the wrestling isn’t as effective as it used to be. Now, he’s moved down the pecking order and now gets the rising prospect, Payton Talbott.
Talbott has recovered from the loss to Raoni Barcelos by beating Felipe Lima via unanimous decision. Before that, Talbott was the talk of the town, finishing his first three UFC fights in under two rounds. As we’ve learned in MMA, when favourable matchups run out, we start to see the realistic versions of fighters. Talbott struggled with the wrestling and was taken regularly by Barcelos. When he can avoid the ground, his crisp striking is what keeps him looking sharp.
Against Cejudo, Talbott could get lucky with Cejudo taking a step back with every passing fight. If Cejudo wrestles and finds success, this will be a tough night for Talbott, but if he doesn’t and chooses to stay standing, Talbott should have a good path to victory. Cejudo needs to be in boxing range to be effective, while Talbott can manage the distance and fight on the outside. This fight comes down to Cejudo’s current athleticism and gameplan.
Brandon Moreno
2.10
1.76
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Moreno is certainly a flyweight legend. He’s been in incredible wars on his way up to the top and has had some of the most entertaining title fights in the division. Moreno last fought in March, where he beat Steve Erceg via decision. Before that, we saw him beat Amir Albazi last November. Even with the split decision losses to Brandon Royval and Alexandre Pantoja, Moreno looks like he has plenty left in the tank at just 31 years old.
Moreno now gets submission specialist Tatsuro Taira, who is 7-1 in the UFC at just 25 years old. With the lack of high-level talent throughout the division, Taira went from the middle-of-the-pack fighters to Royval in just his seventh UFC fight. He was competitive, but Royval was a step ahead. The experience factor was obvious, and the lack of a sound striking base posed problems for him on the feet.
Taira should get a lot of respect this week, but it’s hard to side with him when he hasn’t beaten anyone of Moreno’s calibre so far in his career. His last fight was impressive, but it was against Hyun Sung Park. This is a completely different ball game. Moreno has great scrambles, relentless volume, and good pressure. If Taira can’t find the takedown early, he could be eating punches early in the fight, and he will need to recover fast if he wants to keep up with Moreno.
Alexandre Pantoja
1.42
2.95
Joshua Van
To think Joshua Van went from getting finished by Charles Johnson last year to fighting for a title at the end of 2025 is proof of how the fight game works. After losing to Johnson, Van ripped off five-straight wins and looked incredible against Royval. The boxing is crisp, the volume is unmatched, and the cardio looked championship level last time out. He’s quickly become 8-1 in the UFC and now gets to fight for a title at just 24 years old.
Pantoja is one of the most deserving champions in UFC history. I may be biased, but when you look at his record, he’s fought every major flyweight contender over the last five years, has avenged some of his losses, and has put it all together at 35 years old. He’s got a granite chin, elite grappling, and continues to improve on the feet. His performance bonuses were his original calling card, but Pantoja has defended his title four times and now gets his toughest challenge yet.
Van is a tough puzzle for Pantoja because he’s good in all the tough areas. He doesn’t grapple much, whereas Pantoja’s counter-grappling is what made him successful against previous challengers. Van will put on the pressure and land big, and it’s no secret that Pantoja gets tagged in his fights. Against Kai-Kara France, we saw improvements in his defence, but he also didn’t take as many chances and looked for the submission victory. He needs to have a similar gameplan here because Van will welcome the striking exchanges, and it’s hard to see him lose them. His defence is improving, and Pantoja isn’t known for his punching power. Regardless of how this fight goes, it’s one of the better chess matches on the entire card.
Merab Dvalishvili
1.23
4.30
Petr Yan
In the main event, Merab Dvalishvili is back for a rematch against the fan favourite Petr Yan. While this fight wasn’t very close the first time around, Dvalishvili is running out of contenders. He’s beaten everyone at the top of the division and is now taking on fighters on comeback runs who deserve another chance. The real question is, how much better is Yan?
Since losing to the champion, Yan is 3-0 against Yadong Song, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Marcus McGhee. As much as fans want to believe in his comeback, these fighters are not in the same realm as Dvalishvili. They didn’t test his wrestling, and it’s safe to say that Yan is the far more technical striker than all three of his previous opponents. There seems to be limited reason to believe that Yan has done enough to make a major difference in the rematch three fights later.
Hats off to Dvalishili. Not only has he been a dominant champion, but he’s also improving with every title defence, and we’re seeing him try to keep it on the feet to welcome striking exchanges. While Dvalishvili’s wrestling and cardio are the talk of the town, his fundamental speed is so underrated. In the past, many believed fighters could have a chance because Dvalishvili can be hit and has been rocked in previous fights. We’re seeing fewer and fewer opportunities for that. That’s a testament to Dvalishvili’s improvement, and it’s going to take a brand new version of Yan, who can sustain the wrestling prowess and cardio, to beat him.
UFC 323 BEST BETS
Abdul-Malik to Win in Round 1 @ 1.83
With how these lines look, this is the best value you can find. The line suggests that Abdul-Malik should finish this fight however he wants, and that it shouldn’t last long. Let’s take a chance on him to do it in round 1.
Fares Ziam to Win @ 1.76
Fares Ziam has been improving with every fight, but he gets a tough challenge against Nazim Sadykhov. The difference here is that Ziam seems more polished and makes far fewer mistakes. He should be able to use his wrestling if he needs to to control the fight.
Jan Blachowicz to Win @ 1.80
Bogdan Guskov is well on his way to the top of the rankings, and Blachowicz is getting older, but there is a skill gap here. If Guskov can’t finish him early, this fight should be very competitive over three rounds. Blachowicz has survived in there against some powerful strikers, and something tells him Guskov isn’t more powerful than Alex Pereira.
Brandon Moreno @ 1.98
In this case, I actually like the layoff. Moreno has talked about losing his passion in the past, but with a solid break and recovering from injuries, Moreno is a tough fight for Taira. He has solid boxing, puts on a pace, and, most importantly, his scrambling ability is elite.
Karina Silva to Win @ 2.64 (0.5 Units)
Not only is this WMMA, but Maycee Barber has been a complete letdown. She’s barely been able to make it to the octagon in her previous few fights and has been dealing with serious health concerns. While Barber could be the more skilled fighter, this is a play on the number in what should be a competitive fight.
Manuel Torres to Win @ 2.80 (0.5 Units)
Grant Dawson has looked over the course of his career, but he lost devastatingly to Bobby Green. Manuel Torres has serious power, and if he can somehow avoid the spamming takedowns, he has a chance to win this on the feet.
Abdul-Malik To Finish / Turner / Pantoja / Dvalishvili Parlay @ 2.85 (0.5 Units)
Mansour Abdul-Malik hasn’t been as dominant as initially thought, but he’s getting a massive setup fight against Antonio Trocoli. He could win this fight anywhere he wants, and it could be the safest pick on the card.
Jalin Turner is coming out of retirement to fight Edson Barboza. If he’s as good as he was before, not only should he have a good chance of winning, but the volume and power suggest he could dominate the fight.
As a Pantoja fan, this fight scares me with how much damage he takes, but this should be too much for Van. He’s got solid boxing, volume and footwork, but Pantoja pushes a serious pace in his own right and should have an insane grappling edge.
As much as my heart wants to give Petr Yan a chance here, it’s hard to go against the most dominant fighter in the UFC right now. Dvalishvili landed 11 takedowns in the first fight, and he’s just getting better.
UFC 323 is the perfect way to end the year with one more card before the holidays. With two title fights, plenty of fan favourites and rising stars, UFC 323 will be the perfect way for fans to end the year and hope for big things from the UFC-Paramount+ partnership. While the frequency and quality of fights might not change, the UFC is on a mission to prove to Paramount+ that it made the right decision. Seems like they’re starting early with UFC 323.
