Can we continue our success from UFC 314 at UFC Kansas City?
Looking back at our UFC 314 best bets, we worked for some solid value, and those bets paid off. We were +3.425 Units on the night and are now +8.805 Units in just over a month of tracking our best bets here at SlotsFighter.
Congratulations if you’ve been tailing!
With this new endeavour, we’re taking a conservative approach. As sports bettors, building your bankroll and managing your money is key to success, so we’ll continue to take the slow and steady approach until we find some value to slam.
Will there be similar value at UFC Kansas City? Let’s break down the main card and, as always, check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC Kansas City.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Ikram Aliskerov
1.16
5.40
Andre Muniz
Ikram Aliskerov was pushed into the fire after a 2-0 UFC record and a big win on Dana White’s Contender Series against Robert Whittaker. After finishing three straight fights, Aliskerov was handed a first-round loss of his own. The good news is we haven’t seen him since last June, and he’s getting a submission specialist in Andre Muniz at UFC Kansas City.
Muniz is returning after a 2023 split decision win over Jun Yong Park. He’s 6-2 overall in the UFC and has some notable wins against Ronald Souza, Eryk Anders, and Uriah Hall. His submission skills have been displayed, and he’s only lost to Brendan Allen and Paul Craig. With three first-round armbars in the UFC, there is a clear path to victory for the massive underdog. At the same time, if the fight stays standing, the same can be said for Aliskerov.
Muniz averages 4.23 takedowns/15 minutes, and Aliskerov’s takedown hasn’t been tested yet. There isn’t a size discrepancy, but the striker vs. grappler angle is big. Aliskerov averages 7.03 strikes landed/minute and lands at a 60% clip. His 36% striking defense is concerning, but Muniz’s 1.97 strikes landed/minute says Aliskerov should have the advantage on the feet. This fight will come down to game plan execution. Muniz will need to find the takedown early, while Aliskerov needs to keep the fight on the feet and push the pace.
Regardless of who wins, there’s a good chance the scorecards won’t be needed.
Randy Brown
1.42
2.95
Nicolas Dalby
This one will be short. With all the crazy breathing, Nicolas Dalby always stays in the fight. He keeps it competitive by being gritty and forcing fighters into his world. He likes to clinch, use strikes in close, and look for control time while dominating the wrestling exchanges. He’s a well-rounded fighter, but so is Randy Brown.
The one thing that stands out with Brown is that he never seems to live up to the big price tags. He has a size advantage, is a better striker, and has improved his cardio level over the last years. He has all the tools to take over a fight, but sometimes just falls flat. It would be shocking to see him lose this fight after everything we’ve seen from him lately, but this could be a closer fight than the line suggests.
Michel Pereira
1.70
2.20
Abus Magomedov
Of all the fights at UFC Kansas City, this one stands out from a betting perspective. This is a massive buy-low spot for Michel Pereira. He lost to Anthony Hernandez last time, but ‘Fluffy’ is on the cusp of title challenger material. Before that, Pereira hadn’t lost in the UFC since 2020. He’s unorthodox with his striking game, but has pretty solid cardio and is well-rounded.
Abus Magomedov came in from Europe and the PFL and jumped into the fire immediately. After starting his career 1-2 with losses to Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho, Magomedov has ripped off two wins against Warlley Alves and Bruno Fereira. With plenty of action coming in on Magomedov, hopefully, there’s some line movement in favor of Pereira to make our decision much easier later in the week.
Giga Chikadze
2.45
1.57
David Onama
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Giga Chikadze and he’s had a solid UFC career so far. 8-2 in the UFC with losses to only Arnold Allen and Calvin Kattar is very respectable. The problem in a fight against David Onama is it all comes down to where the fight takes place.
If Onama chooses to wrestle and grind out a win against Chikadze, there’s a good chance he has the upper hand. If the fight stays standing and is a striking battle for three rounds, Chikadze has several paths to victory. While the volume is going to make this a fun fight, Chikadze’s 61% striking defense is impressive, and he’s maintained a 70% takedown defense as well.
Regardless of where Onama wants to take the fight, he’s going to have to work hard for his takedowns or his strikes if he hopes to beat Chikadze in devastating fashion. Of all the fights on the main card, this is a line that could look terrible depending on where the fight takes place.
Anthony Smith
4.90
1.19
Zhang Mingyang
Everyone is going to think that Zhang Mingyang is going to absolutely destroy Anthony Smith in the first round at UFC Kansas City. Based on the tape, the age difference and where Smith’s career is at, there’s a high probability that’s how the fight plays out. However, considering Smith’s experience and ability to survive the first round, are we saying there’s absolutely no chance that Smith survives and makes a comeback late in the fight?
Zhang has an average fight time of 2:41. He barely needs three minutes to finish his fights. With Smith’s history and average fight time of 9:51, there’s something that about this fight that says, we could see vintage Smith come out and survive, then take over the fight in rounds two and three. At 1.19, there’s no value on Zhang. If you like that side, looking into the first round finish is probably your best bet.
If you like Smith, waiting to take advantage of a live number makes a lot of sense, with maybe considering the rounds two or three finish. Depending on the number, that could be something we visit later in the week for our best bets. It would not be surprising to see Smith survive the first round then find a submission of his own later in the fight. That would be a beautiful way to end a legendary UFC career.
Ian Garry
1.76
2.10
Carlos Prates
This one is for the MMA purists. Ian Garry vs. Carlos Prates has everything you want in a fight. The longstanding challenger who takes on every fight. The newcomer who is destroying all the competition in his path. Garry and Prates are basically fighting for a higher spot in the rankings to hopefully land a title shot later this year.
Is Garry being overlooked? Something that always interests me is watching everyone under the sun talk about Prates and how he’s going to destroy Garry, but not seeing the line move at all. The sharps, as they say, are clearly backing Garry in some way. The five round factor is plays a massive role here, with Prates barely getting out of the third round and enjoying 15-20 cigarettes a day.
Garry fights long, has good fight IQ, and always finds a way to get the fight to an advantageous place. The key for Garry is to avoid any dangerous exchanges early on where Prates can find the finishing combination. If Garry drags this fight out into the championship rounds, we’re going to get a good look at just how good Prates can be, and if he can last five strong rounds with a true contender. It would be surprising to see Garry finish this fight, but if Prates pulls off a knockout, we could be looking at the next welterweight title challenger in the UFC.
UFC Kansas City is a solid card with plenty of exciting fights. With a week off from the UFC, this card has even more substance as we lock back in on high-level MMA. The main event carries a lot of weight, while the rest of the card has plenty of fighters looking to make a splash.
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