After taking a week off, we’re back with UFC Baku!
We did well on UFC 316, going 11-2 in overall picks, and +1.7125 units won. We’re up to +7.7465 units on the article picks so far on SlotsFighter.com.
Also, last week was the debut of our UFC Pick’em Contest with ThunderPick, and it was a big success. Congratulations to all the winners.
Looking at this weekend, UFC Baku showcases plenty of talent and should be a solid card filled with competitive fights. Let’s take a look at the six-fight main card, and be sure to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC Baku.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Odds Provided by ThunderPick
Muhammad Naimov
1.42
2.69
Bogdan Grad
Muhammad Naimov has had some impressive moments in the UFC. Despite losing to Felipe Lima, Naimov started his UFC career by beating Jamie Mullarkey, Nathaniel Wood, and Erik Silva. After suffering his first UFC loss, Naimov came back with a solid win over Kaan Offli. He may not be a big finisher, but he grinds his way into competitive fights and finds a way to win.
Bogdan Grad is a similar fighter, at least early in his UFC career. After winning his second stint on Dana White’s Contender Series, Grad put on a show against Lucas Alexander. While the fight was competitve to start, Grad took over in the second round and finished the fight via strikes. Grad excels at smelling blood in the water and finishing the fight via ground and pound.
This will be a gritty, hard-fought battle with both guys laying it all on the line. They’ll be motivated to put on a show to kick off the main card, and it’ll come down to cardio and durability. After both guys take plenty of damage, a late finish isn’t out of the question.
Nazim Sadykhov
1.18
4.36
Nikolas Motta
Nazim Sdaykhov is a fan favorite in the making. He’s durable and hunts for the finish, whether it be on the ground or the feet. He’s 3-0 with a majority draw in the UFC after a solid outing on Dana White’s Contender Series. Two of his three UFC wins have come via doctor stoppage. While some may look at that as a questionable outcome, his ability to deal damage can’t be ignored.
Nikolas Motta will oblige Sadykhov in the striking battles. He has power in his hands, but has been susceptible to brutal knockout losses. He’s riding a 2-0 streak after his no-contest against Trey Ogden. His win against Tom Nolan is by far his most impressive, and it showcased his ability to land big power shots and finish fights. At just 32 years old, we’re seeing Motta come into his own, but this will be his toughest fight yet.
Given the betting line in this fight, Motta’s chances of winning are low, but it all comes down to discipline and keeping the fight where he’s most successful. He’ll need to maintain distance, avoid the ground, and point fight for three rounds. Sadykhov is hard to finish, and Motta will have to avoid brawling if he wants to stay in the fight.
Curtis Blaydes
1.34
3.03
Rizvan Kuniev
Curtis Blaydes has been out of action since his title fight with Tom Aspinall last July. He’s been scheduled to fight Kuniev twice already, and they’ll finally lock horns in Baku. Looking at Blaydes’ losses, there’s a consistent way of beating him: force him to box and find the finish. If Blaydes starts to get the wrestling going and maintains top control, it’s hard to come back from that. Blaydes is ready to take anyone into deep waters if he can get there, and knocking him out seems to be the only way to avoid it.
Rizan Kuniev is still waiting to make his UFC debut after finishing Hugo Cunha on Dana White’s Contender Series. Kuniev is mostly known for his overturned win against PFL champion Renan Ferreira. He won the fight, but the commission reversed the decision after he tested positive for four different anabolic steroids.
Kuniev will need to avoid the takedowns and stay off his back. Against Ferreira, he spent a lot of time against the fence fighting for position, and this fight could be much of the same. If Kuniev is unable to land the finishing blow, it’s hard to see Blaydes losing this fight, given their clash of styles and cardio levels.
This is the third time this fight has been booked, and you have to cross your fingers and hope it happens.
Tofiq Musayev
2.30
1.56
Myktybek Orolbai
Tofiq Musayev is making his UFC debut after spending the last six years in RIZIN. He has notable wins on his record, like Patricky Pitbull, but he’s also been finished in his last two losses. The UFC sees something in him, and it probably has to do with his three decisions in 27 fights. Pitbull was his last decision win in 2019, and he’s 3-2 in his last five. He’ll have the hometown crowd behind him as one of the fighters from Azerbaijan.
Myktybek Orolbai is a fan favorite and has already made a name for himself in the UFC. He’s 2-1 in the UFC, but all of his fights have been exciting and close. He most recently lost a split decision to Mateusz Rebecki in what was a fight of the year candidate last October. Both guys left it all in the cage and took plenty of damage.
This fight is hard to call only because it’s tough to predict game plans and what version of both fighters we’re going to get. Based on the level of competition and recency bias, Orolbai looks poised to continue his solid run in the UFC with a close, hard-fought win. With Musayev getting finished twice fairly recently, the best version of Orolbai could find a finish, especially on the ground. Regardless of how this fight plays out, there’s a good chance it’s one of the best fights on the card.
Rafael Fiziev
1.86
1.86
Ignacio Bahamondes
Rafael Fiziev will be fired up to fight in his home country. After suffering a terrible leg injury in 2023, Fiziev came back and fought Justin Gaethje again, earning another fight bonus in a unanimous decision loss. Fiziev is not only a fan favorite, but he’s earned seven bonuses in his last eight fights. He’s a solid kickboxer with good power and volume. While he struggles against the elite UFC fighters, he’s been incredible against the bottom half of the rankings.
Ignacio Bahamondes gets the biggest fight of his life in Baku. After losing to Ludovit Klein via decision in 2023, Bahamondes is 3-0 with three finishes and three bonuses. He’s long, knows how to use his range, and can attack all three levels of striking. His first-round finish of Jalin Turner put him on the map as a true UFC contender. His grappling is improving, but his striking is the key to victory.
The interesting thing about this fight is that neither fighter inclines to grapple. At the same time, if the fight proves to be one-sided early on, we could see a shift in the game plan from either fighter, likely Bahamondes if he can’t keep up with Fiziev. This should be a competitive kickboxing match with Fiziev looking to avoid the distance striking and enter the pocket when he can. Bahamondes’ best chance at victory is staying on the outside, using his length and landing the better shots over three rounds. This has fight of the night written all over it.
Jamahal Hill
2.25
1.59
Khalil Rountree Jr.
MMA math has always been frowned upon, but it seems like people can’t help it in this matchup. Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree both had recent fights against Alex Pereira, and they went very differently.
While Hill was finished in a matter of minutes, Rountree put up a valiant effort, even knocking down the champion in a close back-and-forth. Even though Pereira pulled away with an incredible finish, Rountree earned the respect of his peers and the MMA community. That was the last time we saw Rountree, and it was his first fight since 2023.
Hill hasn’t won a fight since 2023 when he beat Glover Texeira for the UFC title. He was on a four-fight win streak with four bonuses before losing to Pereira. He followed that up with another loss, this time to Jiri Prochazka, in January via ground and pound in the third round. Are Hill’s best years behind him? The chin looks questionable, and his style makes it difficult for him to stay protected and disciplined. When he keeps his hands low or rushes into an offensive attack, we’ve seen him pay the price twice in a row now. Will he keep the same gameplan against Rountree?
Rountree shot up the rankings despite a mediocre UFC stint and minimal activity. However, he’s 9-6 in the UFC and has been with the company for almost 10 years. With the shift towards exciting fights with solid strikers, Roundtree was a big beneficiary in the new era of the UFC. If the fight stays standing, Roundtree has the skills to gift Hill his third loss in a row. If Hill chooses to grapple, will Rountree be able to avoid the ground for five rounds? That’s the big question heading into the main event at UFC Baku.
UFC Baku boasts a compelling mix of exciting fights and local talent. The crowd will have every opportunity to support their fighters, and it’s only natural that other fighters welcome the chance to play spoiler. This is one of those cards where, if the prelim fights don’t deliver, the card is top-heavy enough that the main card should do the trick. As always, be sure to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC Baku.
