UFC Noche is going to be a solid night of fights from San Antonio, Texas. Before we breakdown the main card and get into some best bets, let’s review how we did after UFC Paris.
Brad Tavares was a bad investment and there was some doubt going into fight night. While his experience stood out going into the fight, it just wasn’t his night. If it weren’t for that fight, we would have been sitting pretty, but unfortunately, that’s just how it goes sometimes. We gain +0.015 and are still sitting at +9.89 Units.
UFC Noche has some solid spots, but we need to adjust our confidence level in some fights to come away with some profit. Let’s breakdown the main card and get into some best bets for UFC Noche.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Santiago Luna
1.71
2.15
Quang Le
This is an interesting way to kick off the main card. While Santiago Luna is making his UFC debut, Quang Le is 1-2 in the UFC after spending most of his professional career with LFA. This fight will also feature two guys at different points of their careers. Luna is just 21 years, while Le is 33 entering his fourth UFC fight.
In his last Tuff N Uff fight, Luna looked good everywhere. While it’s not the best competition, he landed a knockdown early on, found ways to counter grapple, and ended up with a back take for the first half of the first round. His opponent made it back to his feet, only to get finished within seconds.
We’ve seen Le fight enough to know that he’s going to be looking for takedowns. He averages 3.15 takedowns/15 mins, and has a 100% takedown defense in three UFC fights. Le also absorbs 4.53 significant strikes/min and will not want to stay on the feet with Luna. This will come down to how successful he is with his takedowns, and if he can withstand the pressure and power from Luna.
Alexander Hernandez
2.00
1.83
Diego Ferreira
This fight’s for the old heads. If it lasts, if should be competitive. Both guys have skills everwhere, but Alexander Hernandez should have an edge in technical striking while Diego Ferreira will come in with a grappling advantage.
Hernandez is getting a quick turnaround fight after pulling off the upset against Chase Hooper. It was a massive underdog, but he was the better striker and finsihed the fight early. The UFC is rewarding him with another fight in a solid spot against a true veteran. The betting odds for this fight are close, but after Hernandez’s last win, it’s crazy to see him as the underdog against the 40-year-old Ferreira.
In terms of numbers, this is a close fight. Both guys take a lot fo damage, have similar defensive striking stats, and aren’t the most accurate strikers. This will come down to who can land more and cause more damage. It could be either fighter, and it will be interesting to see if Hernandez goes for any takedowns against Ferreira’s 57% takedown defense. He’ll have to worry about the grappling, but he tends to go to the wrestling as he gets tired. Hernandez looks like the right side, but this could be an absolute war if both guys last three rounds.
Kelvin Gastelum
1.40
3.05
Dustin Stoltzfus
Kelvin Gastelum is his own worst enemy. At 13-10 in the UFC, so much more was expected of him. He’s had moments of greatness throughout his career, but he’s never been able to take a massive leap in his career. He’s lost to Sean Brady and Joe Pyfer, and now gets a fighter much lower in the totem pole.
Dustin Stoltzfus UFC career is being defined by his ability to survive and fight above his price tag. He’s either winning as a big underdog, or proving he can fight with some of the better fighters in the UFC. Last time out, he lost to Nursulton Ruziboev, but he had his moments throughout the fight. He came into the UFC as a grappler, but his ability to take punishment and use his boxing to create some offense has improved.
This is a weird fight because both guys are hard to predict. Gastelum should be the better wrestler, but he’s been caught in submissions in the past. His boxing has also improved, but it’s hard to predict who will land the better shots. Gastelum should be the overall better fighter, and the line suggests that, but Stoltzfus has continued to fight above his price point. Gastelum should be the right side, and his boxing and durability should be the difference.
Rafa Garcia
3.05
1.40
Jared Gordon
Jared Gordon may be 37 years old, but he’s getting better with every UFC fight. After getting finished a lot early in his career against elite fighters, his striking has improved drastically and he’s landing big finishes of his own. Looking at his record, his 9-6 record is misleading, with losses to elite fighters like Charles Oliveira, Paddy Pimblett, and Grant Dawson.
Rafa Garcia is in a similar boat, having only lost to fighters with solid UFC experience. He recently beat UFC veteran Vinc Pichel, and is 3-1 in his last four fights. He may not be the most active fighter, but he’s starting to pick it up. The big thing to take away from his UFC career is that he struggles to finish fights. He’s 5-4 in the UFC overall, with just one finish over Jesse Ronson in 2022.
If Garcia doesn’t have the finishing power to knockout Gordon, there’s a good chance he loses the fight. Gordon is a solid grappler, is becoming a much better volume striker, and is looking better over three rounds. Garcia’s cardio and well-roundedness is how he’s winning fights, but Gordon could be too much in this case.
Rob Font
1.86
1.86
David Martinez
Rob Font has been taking on some of the best young talent in the UFC as a gatekeeper and gets another tough outing against David Martinez. He was originally scheduled to fight Raul Rosas Jr, but after Rosas Jr. pulled out, his teammate took his place.
The interesting thing about this fight is Font would’ve been training for a wrestling and grappling fight, while Martinez has proven to be a sharp striker with solid leg kicks. Both guys have good boxing, so this will come down to the power advantage and who can find the early success at range.
Martinez is getting a massive jump in competition after just his first UFC fight. If he can land big shots early on, he could put Font off his game. If he struggles to find his range and land his big leg kicks, it won’t take long for Font to find his footing in a competitive striking match. If you’re thing is striking totals, this could be the fight to consider.
Diego Lopes
2.95
1.42
Jean Silva
Jean Silva has made such a huge splash in the UFC. After climbing the ranks, Silva is now a massive favorite against the former title challenger Diego Lopes. Both guys are considered top featherweights in the UFC, and this is a solid battle of two well-rounded fighters.
What stands out here is how much better Silva’s striking numbers are. They’re elite. He’s got 52% accuracy, 56% defense, and lands a whopping 4.87 strikes/minute. At the same time, he absorbs 4.13 strikes, meaning Lopes could have his chances to land clean. The problem here is Lopes sports a 47% striking accuracy with 46% defense. Not onyl is there a good chance Silva lands the better shots, but he gets better as his confidence grows. His fight against Bryce Mitchell is a great example.
Usually, Lopes’ grappling stands out against most opponents. In this case, Silva should be able to hold his own as well. From every angle, other than a flash finish of some kind, Silva looks to have the advantage and best paths to victory over five rounds. While the number is a little crazy, it’s hard to pick against one of the fastest rising stars in the UFC.
UFC NOCHE BEST BETS
(1 Unit unless specified)
Joaquim Silva to Win @ 1.95
This is an experience play along with some recency bias. Claudio Puelles is 5-3 in the UFC and gets a tough stand-up fighter next. He’s primarily a grappler who has defeated aging wrestlers in the UFC. Silva, on the other hand, hasa fought tougher competition and is being and should have a massive advantage on the feet.
Carlos Diego Ferreira to Win @ 1.83
Hernandez came out with a solid win last time out, but Ferreira is pretty durable with great grappling in cardio. If Hernandez can’t finish this early, it’s going to be a long night for him.
Pereira ML / Luna ML @ 3.01 (0.5 Units)
This seems like a setup fight, even though Alice Pereira is just 19 years old. She’s developed well but unproven. Her opponent is just 6-1 and is primarily a grappler. The UFC is hoping Pereira can style on her and we’ll take a chance on her as well.
A lot of people like Le’s experience here, but Luna is fast and should be able to avoid the wrestling. On the feet, he should have a solid advantage.
Zach Reese to Finish / Costa ML / Gordon ML Parlay @ 2.75 (0.5 Units)
Sedriques Dumas has so many personal issues that fighting at the UFC level seems like an uphill battle. Reese had a lack luster showing last time out, but this is a where his power and grappling should be enough to secure the finish.
Of all the big favorites, Costa looks like the most well-rounded fighter with several advantages against his opponent. This should be a dominating victory.
Gordon should have an experience edge and has looked better with every passing fight. We’re dodging the wrestling here. If the first two legs hold up, hedging might not be a bad idea.
Moonshot Parlay:
Reese / Costa / Gordon / Todorovic / Gordon / Luna / Pereira @ 9.31 (0.25 Units)
Well, we’ve tried a few of these in the past, and missed last week by two fighters. Let’s give it another go as a bankroll builder parlay for the big payday.
UFC Noche has some interesting matchups which could result in absolute wars. Ignoring the betting lines, there are several fights that are way closer than the odds suggest, and the matchmaking could prove to be elite on a card like this. There are also plenty of Mexican prospects getting massive opportunities, which should play into the crowd and energy all night.
