After a lackluster UFC London card, UFC Mexico delivered in a big way.
Not only were the fights spectacular, but we gained +2.135Us on the night, for a total of +5.915U in the first month of us tracking on SlotsFighter.com! Let’s see if we can keep it rolling for UFC Vegas 105.
Similar to previous weeks, we will have the final UFC bets to consider later in the week, but first, let’s break down the main card for UFC Vegas 105.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Torrez Finney vs Robert Valentin
Torrez Finney
1.38
3.10
Robert Valentin
Two fighters arriving through two different television paths are kicking off the main card. Robert Valentin was on The Ultimate Fighter 32, while Torrez Finney is the king of Dana White’s Contender Series with three fights. While Valentin is 10-4 and lost his UFC debut, Finney is undefeated and looking to make a quick splash in the UFC.
Even though Finney’s stature and size seem like a hindrance, he manages distances well and will only have a two-inch reach disadvantage. On top of that, his striking accuracy is 70% versus Valentin’s 50%. Finney also has a combined 18 takedowns in just six rounds of fighting. If Finney wins the striking exchanges, Valentin’s best chance of stealing rounds would be to get top position, land some ground and pound, and force Finney to work to his feet.
Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Brad Tavares
1.40
3.00
Gerald Meerschaert
Depending on who you talk to, this line might seem too wide. Brad Tavares is on a two-fight skid, with one win in his last five fights. Gerald Meerschaert is in a similar boat, having won two fights in his previous six. Meesrchaert is a submission specialist, with his last four wins ending in submission. The thing about Tavares is that he’s never been submitted.
Tavares could employ a gameplan of just boxing for three rounds, hoping to find a knockout or take a one-sided decision. Fatigue will be the biggest concern. Meerschaert has been known to survive tough exchanges and find a way to win. The thing about Tavares is that he’s never been submitted. This fight will come down to output and fatigue.
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Martin Buday
Kennedy Nzechukwu
1.30
3.00
Martin Buday
We could be finalizing a bet once they get released, so stay tuned for that. Martin Buday is a pretty big underdog, and for good reason. Nzechukwu has solid speed and throws with improved volume. The move to heavyweight could be a life-changer for him.
Buday takes far too much damage and will likely falter in the later rounds, while Nzechukwu has solid cardio, especially for the heavyweight division, and should be able to have his way if Buday can’t find his office early. He’s still 4-1 in his last 5 at the UFC level, but this will likely be his hardest fight so far. This fight won’t need the judges.
Cortavious Romious vs. Chang Ho Lee
Cortavious Romious
2.15
1.74
Chang Ho Lee
This is the line that has most cappers confused. Is it based on the skills of both fighters or the history of Road to UFC fighters not doing very well?
Chang Ho Lee has been around the block and fought with several international promotions. With the UFC trying to reach a broader audience, several fighters from Asia have fought in prime spots on the card. This looks like a showcase fight for Cortavious Romious and Lee.
It would not be shocking to see a lot of this fight take place on the ground. Lee has five finishes, and all five are via ground and pound. Romious has seven total finishes, and four of them are via armbar. While MMA math is frowned upon, the potential of a finish on the ground seems too perfect.
Joanderson Brito vs. Pat Sabatini
Joanderson Brito
1.42
2.95
Pat Sabatini
This is another misleading line, but it’s coming from the right place. Pat Sabatini has a lethal ground game and comes from a respectable background in regional MMA. Joanderson Brito lost to William Gomis via split decision last year but has only lost twice in the UFC. While Brito looks like the more dangerous fighter, Sabatini is on a six-fight win streak and has only lost to respectable fighters, Diego Lopes and Damon Jackson.
If Brito wins, it feels like it’ll be early and fast. Something powerful. If he gets tired or is taken down, the momentum will shift drastically. If you have access to live betting, Sabatini after round one ends might not be a terrible look because that’s where we can try and operate in his most advantageous spots. This fight will be a banger.
Josh Emmett 3.60 vs. Lerone Murphy 1.30
Josh Emmett
3.60
1.30
Lerone Murphy
The main event for UFC Vegas 105 is a banger. Josh Emmett has returned since his brutal KO victory over Bryce Mitchell, and Lerone Murphy is one of the main contenders at featherweight. Murphy’s back-to-back wins over Edson Barboza and Dan Ige were spectacular. To watch Murphy dismantle both fighters so cleanly and get the victory is a big indicator of where he’s headed.
Emmett, on the other hand, has come back strong after the Ilia Topuria fight and is hoping to build on a great win last time out. Murphy is more of a precision striker who likes to move in and out, while Emmett has insane power and solid boxing. Whoever dictates the pace and attacks with volume should win this fight.
UFC Vegas 105 Best Bets
(all bets are for one unit unless stated otherwise)
Kennedy Nzechukwu was going to be a part of this week’s betting selection, but he pulled out of the fight on Thursday, leaving a short-notice fighter to take his place against Martin Buday.
Torrez Finney to Finish @ 1.83 (1.5 Units)
We like Torrez Finney this week for a good reason. He’s worked hard to make it to the UFC, including three fights on Dana White’s Contender Series, and looks primed for an excellent performance at UFC Vegas 105. Robert Valentin is a submission threat but must avoid the big power early in the fight. Finney also has pretty solid cardio and will look to finish this fight for all three rounds. At a solid price for a 1.32, we can take a chance on a fighter who will work tirelessly for your money.
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Istela Nunes: Fight Doesn’t go the Distance @ 2.85
The biggest reason for this bet is taking into consideration both fighters’ strengths and the betting lines. Loma is a massive favorite, to the point where the finish is embedded in the line. Nunes is no slouch in the first round and can crack Loma early in the fight. With Nunes’ early success combined with Loma’s ability to take over and find a finish later in the fight, the fight not to see the judges at a big number makes plenty of sense.
Victory Henry vs. Pedro Falcao: Fight Doesn’t go the Distance @ 2.70
Both fighters have strong finishing backgrounds and the age factor combined with the skill says the output could lead to a finish. With all the chalk on the card, we have to do our best to find some value. With some of these big numbers for fights to end before the scorecards, combined with the fighters’ history in finishing fights. Taking a chance on one of them to pull it off is a great way to take advantage of bigger numbers.
Pat Sabatini ML @ 3.00 (0.5 Units)
Without the confidence to put a full unit on this fight, the best hedge is Brito to win by KO/TKO at 2.30, with even more value on him to finish in round one at 3.60 if you want to go the whole way. Sabatini is at risk of an early finish with Brito’s power but if he survives, he’s live to finish this fight via submission at any time. The betting lines suggest this fight won’t go the distance, and as the fight goes on, Sabatini has a chance to steal this one. Not a bad price for someone with a real chance to finish.
Parlay: Luis Gurule / Torrez Finney / Dione Barbosa @ 2.01
It’s tough to find really good value when fighters are being overvalued or are fighting solid opponents. Lerone Murphy is an example where you can see him get cracked by the massive underdog. With that said, let’s still go with Luis Gurule and Torrez Finney to come away with victories.
Gurule is a solid wrestler and will put the pressure on Ode Osbourne. Osbourne always starts fast, but if he can’t find a finish, Gurule will likely take over. As for Finney, this is a good matchup for him, and he’s an absolute workhorse in training camp. He wants this bad and will fight for our money to complete the parlay.
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance Parlay: Belbita vs. Barbosa + McKee vs. Frunza @ 2.47
We’re taking a chance on a female fight to not go the distance. While this is always a scary endeavour, there are some takeaways in this fight that we have to consider. Not only is Diana Belbita far from UFC level as a grappler, but she’s hinted towards calling it a career soon. Barbosa is a savage on the ground and the betting lines are complete chalk for her to finish. We can cover both fighters with the fight to end, and do the same thing for Rhys McKee vs. Daniel Frunza.
McKee is a Cage Warriors champion without a UFC win yet. However, he’s got some underrated power and can try and finish this fight on the feet. On the flip side, Frunza has very real power and could end this fight at any time. Let’s take a chance on either guy to end this fight before the judges’ scorecards matter.
UFC Vegas 105 is a solid card with a nice mix of established fighters, female fights, and up-and-comers. Keep it locked to SlotsFighter.com for the best bets later in the week.
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