UFC Rio could have been a fantastic day of betting for us if Valter Walker got his hands on Mo Usman. Unfortunately, Usman was unable to make weight due to injury, and the fight was squashed. As a result, half of our bets were void. On the flip side, we only lost the big parlay for 0.25 units and hit Charles Oliveira’s moneyline. Despite the low volume, we’re still up +12.72 Units so far this year.
The UFC now heads to Canada for UFC Vancouver, headlined by Reinier de Ridder and Brendan Allen. In terms of Canadian talent, some of the best up-and-comers are featured on this card. With Canadian MMA at an all-time low right now, this could be the perfect card to bring some excitement back to the scene.
Let’s take a look at the main card for UFC Vancouver, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our best bets.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Kyle Nelson
1.98
1.84
Matt Frevola
The betting line in this fight says it all. Kyle Nelson and Matt Frevola are both heavy hitters with questionable durability. This fight will come down to who lands the hardest first. Both fighters are coming off tough finishing losses against surging fighters in the division.
The kill-or-be-killed mentality rings true in this one. It’s hard seeing this fight go to a decision, but it’s hard to predict which fighter will land the best shots first. Both guys have solid finishing wins in their UFC career, so the fight not to go the distance seems like the best look from a betting perspective, but this one should be a sit-back-and-relax-type fight.
Cody Gibson
1.60
2.40
Aoriqileng
Cody Gibson has made a comeback through the Ultimate Fighter and has done much better in his second, but lost his last fight to Da’Mon Blackshear via submission. In that fight, he did well in the first round, but it seemed like Blackshear woke up and relied on his grappling to secure the win. Gibson struggles with avoiding the bottom and sometimes get stuck without much answer.
Aoriqileng is a well-rounded fighter but is just 3-4 in the UFC. He’s lost to solid competition, but his wins aren’t against the top fighters. This is a fight where he’ll need to rely on the wrestling and avoid engaging in a brawl. Gibson will find his groove and has solid cardio and durability. If Aoriqileng can find the wrestling early on, it’ll be easy to steal minutes. He’ll have to rely on that for the entire fight, but once you get Gibson down, he struggles to get back to his feet.
If this fight stays standing, we could see a solid performance from Gibson. He’s got solid volume and his chin always keeps him in the fight. We’ve seen Aoriqileng finished in the past, so avoiding those spots is imperative for his success. Given Gibson’s experience and well-roudnedness, it’s hard to see him losing this fight.
Manon Fiorot
1.44
2.85
Jasmine Jasudavicius
This is a massive jump in competition for Jasmine Jasudavicius, but she’s earned the right to fight an ex-title contender after winning her last five fights. Since Dana White’s Contender Series, she’s 8-2 in the UFC and continues to improve in all facets of MMA. She came in as a wrestler, but her striker is much better, and it’s allowed her dominate her fights en-route to the toughest fight of her career. Last time out, she finished ex-champion Jessica Andrade with a first round rear-naked choke.
Manon Fiorot is coming off a title fight loss to Valentina Shevchenko, arguably the greatest female MMA fighter of all time. She was able to keep it competitve, but there were moments where she was just outclassed by the better fighter. There’s a reason she’s such a massive favorite in this fight and it’s because she’s never lost in the UFC and her only career loss was against the champion. She’s a clean striker with solid wrestling, but her footwork is what separates her from a lot of fighters. If she can avoid the ground, this seems like a tough matchup for Jasudavicius. When you look at the names on Fiorot’s record, she’s really become one of the best female fighters in the UFC, and it all comes down to if Jasudavicius is able to find a plan B if the wrestling doesn’t work.
If Jasudavicius is able to get takedowns, it will speak volumes on her readiness to fight for the title. Is she ready to beat Shevchenko? Probably not, but a massive win like this is not only huge for her, but a big step in the right direction for Canadian MMA.
Marlon Vera
2.05
1.80
Aiemann Zahabi
At first glance, it’s pretty insane to see Marlon Vera as an underdog to Aiemann Zahabi, but the fact is, Zahabi is another fighter who has done all the right things in his second stint with the UFC to start fighting the best fighters in the division. Last time out, he beat Jose Aldo in a closely-contested fight where he was able to do enough in the final frame to steal the victory.
At 13-2, Zahabi is a sneaky good fighter who is now riding a six-fight win streak. The most impressive part of his run is his improved striking and solid gameplans. He’s been ready for every fighter during that span, and has been able to find ways to dominate the fight. With a few more wins, he’s entering title contender status at 37 years old.
We haven’t seen Vera since last year after his fight with Mario Bautista fell out twice. While it looks like he’s taken a step back, losses to Sean O’Malley and Deiveson Figueiredo are very respectable. With Vera, it’s all about matching his pressure in striking and finding ways to avoid taking his long combinations. He fights with intent and his timing is elite. In terms of skill-for-skill, this is a solid striking battle, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zahabi mix in the wrestling given Vera’s track record and Zahabi’s in-cage IQ. There’s a reason the books are favoring Zahabi in this fight.
Kevin Holland
1.98
1.84
Mike Malott
On paper, this is a close fight. However, judging by both fighters’ track record, they both have been the victim of terrible in-cage IQ and decision-making. For Kevin Holland, losing to Daniel Rodriguez was a tough look. He was looking like the fresher and more dominant fighter in the third round, but his jumping knees and questionable decisions lost him the fight. At the end of the day, Holland is an exciting figher but you just don’t know which version you’re going to get come fight night.
While Malott had a similar outcome against Neil Magny, he’s learned a lot from his mistakes. His 2-0 since then, and finish Charles Radke with a beautiful striking combination. He looked more tactical and was able to pick his spots instead of forcing it. Against Trevin Giles, he was also more calculated which allowed him to be effective over three rounds. Looking at his trajectory, there’s a good chance he could find a solid shot against Holland, especially if he can avoid the ground.
For Holland, looking to mix it up is the best way to go about it. Whether he does that or not, remains to be seen. His grappling is solid, especially against strikers, but he gets caught up in the fun and chooses to stand with the wrong fighters. In this case, it would be a mistake to stand the whole time instead of changing levels. It’s his best chance to find different ways of dominating the fight and challenging Malott’s cardio. If he chooses to stand, there’s a reason why the sportsbooks are giving Malott the slight edge in the fight.
Reinier de Ridder
1.50
2.64
Brendan Allen
This is such a weird fight in terms of UFC rankings. Reinier de Ridder is coming off a massive win over Robert Whittaker, but after Alexander Hernandez pulls out, he gets Brendan Allen instead. Allen was dominated by Hernandez in their last fight, but a big win over de Ridder puts him back in the hunt against the top middleweights in the UFC.
De Ridder’s striking is the biggest surprise during his UFC run. His ability to attack the body has allowed him to dominate top level competition and even beat out some top prospects. He hasn’t been given a chance in most of his UFC fights, but he continues to prove the doubters wrong. Against Allen, the books seems quite aware of his advantages and it would be interesting to see him get dominated on the ground.
For Allen, standing at distance is his best chance. He could look to offensive wrestle to gain some control time, but de Ridder has done well in the clinch and in close against the fence. He landed a big knee against Bo Nickal in limited space, and was able to control Whittaker in close quarters. At distance, he’s a lot more hittable and sometimes looks tired. If Allen can take advantage of that, he could pull off the massive upset.
UFC VANCOUVER BEST BETS
UFC Vancouver stands as one of the better cards in Canada. There are plenty of solid title hopefuls in action against top-tier talent. While there might not be the biggest names in the UFC, this will be a solid indicator of where Canadian MMA stands as a whole. With that said, if Canadian fighters do well this weekend, some big fan favorites will be eating losses, something Canadian MMA needs desperately.
