We’re coming off another short break from UFC fights and heading to Texas for UFC Houston. UFC Vegas 113 could have been a lot better betting-wise with more aggressive takes, but we still came out with +0.55 Units, and now sit at +1.01 Units so far in 2026. After playing UFC Vegas 113 more conservatively, let’s see if we can turn up for UFC Houston.
Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez headline UFC Houston in what should be a battle of cardio and pace. The co-main event features Geoff Neal making his return against surging Uros Medic, and both fighters love to finish fights early. Top to bottom, UFC Houston is an exciting card with plenty of fighters looking to make a splash early in the year. Let’s take a look at the main card and some of our favourite bets for UFC Houston.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Zach Reese
2.30
1.64
Michel Pereira
This is a classic case of ‘which fighter are we going to get’. Standing 6’4″ with a 77-inch reach, Zach Reese is a “long” middleweight. He uses a lethal left body kick and straight punches to keep opponents at bay. He’s been able to finish in the past, but his strength of schedule is one of the lightest on the roster. This could arguably be his toughest test yet if Michel Pereira doesn’t come out flat again.
That’s been the biggest issue with Pereira lately. Pereira is at his most dangerous when he explodes. He closes distance faster than almost anyone in the division. However, he is coming off a rough patch (losing three of his last four), including a quick KO loss to Kyle Daukaus in August 2025. When Pereira stays technical, he is elite. He needs to avoid the “backflip” era and focus on high-volume leg kicks and heavy hands. He must test Reese’s chin.
At their best, this fight should go Pereira’s way. He’s the more experienced, more equipped, and more durable fighter of the two. The only question mark is whether he will come out flat as he has, or is this his opportunity to turn things around? Reese’s best chance is to either stay at kicking range and use long strikes to keep Pereira at bay, and mix in some wrestling to secure control time if it gets close on the feet.
Jacobe Smith
1.33
3.40
Josiah Harrell
Jacobe Smith is a wrestling powerhouse from Oklahoma State. His stats are absurd: he averages over 7 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 90% accuracy rate. He doesn’t just grapple; he smothers opponents and uses heavy ground-and-pound to create openings. Eight of Smith’s 11 wins are by KO/TKO. He has a massive 4-inch reach advantage and a 3-inch height advantage. If he can keep Harrell at the end of his southpaw jab, he can land the heavy shots that have finished 7 of his opponents in the very first round.
Josiah Harrell is a late replacement for Seokhyeon Ko. Harrell is known for an unbreakable will. He famously fought through a brain condition (Moyamoya) that required surgery and has returned on a four-fight finishing streak. He thrives in the “ugly” parts of a fight—the scrambles and transitions. Harrell is a cardio machine. He doesn’t have the one-punch “off switch” that Smith possesses, but he drowns people with a 100% effort rate.
As we’ve seen, even though Smith is elite, his cardio is capped with his effort level. If it’s the same this time around, Harrell’s path to victory is to make Smith work harder than he ever has in the first 7 minutes, hoping to see the wrestler’s gas tank dip in the third round. If Harrell can weather the early storm and defend takedowns as the fight progresses, this should be an interesting one with two 11-0 fighters.
Serghei Spivac
2.24
1.67
Ante Delija
This Heavyweight clash is a classic “Grappler vs. Striker” dilemma. Both men are coming off losses and need a win to protect their top-10 aspirations, making this a high-stakes crossroads fight for the big boys. Spivac is at his best when he can close the distance, get a body lock, and use his elite Sambo trips to get the fight to the mat. Once on top, he is methodical, using heavy pressure to set up submissions. The big question is, will he be able to land it safely? Spivac has struggled against heavy-handed strikers who can find his chin early. He tends to “shell up” under fire, which can be disastrous against a “kill-or-be-killed” fighter.
Ante Delija is quickly climbing the UFC ranks. The former PFL Champion has a massive frame and deceptive speed. To win, he must keep his back off the fence. If he can stuff Spivac’s initial attempts, he forces a striking match where he has a clear advantage in raw power. Delija thrives in boxing range and will land heavy shots if you can’t find ways to counter or get him to the ground. Delija is coming off a strange TKO loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta in November, where a restart after an eye-poke led to him being caught. Before that, he looked like a wrecking ball against Tybura. The question is whether his confidence or durability took a hit from that quick turnaround KO.
Spivac will need to chain-wrestle his way to a victory. Standing is a bad idea in this one, and forcing Delija to counter-wrestle and fight off submissions will also tire him out. If you give him the time and space to unload massive shots, it’s only a matter of time before he connects with Spivac’s chin. If Spivac doesn’t land a takedown and maintain control early, this fight could be over in a flash.
Dan Ige
2.70
1.48
Melquizael Costa
Dan Ige is famous for being impossible to finish. He has faced the absolute cream of the crop (Diego Lopes, Movsar Evloev, Josh Emmett) and has never been knocked out or submitted in his professional career. His game is built on high-level boxing, heavy overhands, and a “never back down” mentality. Ige thrives when the fight turns into a “phone booth” brawl, as he did recently against Sean Woodson. It’s the technical, durable guys who can mix it up who pose problems for Ige.
Melquizael Costa is arguably the hottest featherweight prospect right now. He is on a five-fight win streak in the UFC, including a brutal 74-second head-kick KO of Morgan Charriere and a submission over Andre Fili. He is taller, younger, and currently fighting with a level of confidence that makes him extremely dangerous. Costa has a 2.5-inch leg reach advantage. He is a specialist at using front kicks and high kicks to keep opponents from entering the pocket. In his recent fights, he has shown an ability to switch between being a sniper and an opportunistic grappler.
Ige needs to close the distance and force Costa to trade hooks. If Ige can get past the kicking range, he has the power to stun Costa and turn the fight into a brawl. Costa’s gameplan is the easier of the two: force Ige to stay on the outside with kicks, and look for takedowns if they present themselves. Costa can spam the lead-leg calf kick to deaden Ige’s movement. If he keeps Ige reset and at a distance, he can win a technical decision or find a highlight-reel head kick as Ige tries to lunge in.
Geoff Neal
1.45
2.80
Uros Medic
Geoff Neal is a “hammer.” He possesses some of the most technical and powerful boxing in the division. His wins over Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad prove he can shut the lights out on anyone. However, he has struggled recently (1-3 in his last four), including a quick KO loss to Carlos Prates in August 2025. His strength of schedule, though, is one of the toughest in the division.
Uro Medic is on the opposite side of the spectrum. His strength of schedule has been a breeze, but he’s a 100% finisher. He has never seen a scorecard in 15 professional fights. He enters this bout on a 2-fight win streak, both 1st-round KOs, and most recently finished Muslim Salikhov. He is the faster, more explosive athlete at this stage of their careers, but there is a massive difference in experience and quality of opponents.
Despite being the shorter man, Neal has a 4-inch reach advantage. He is a master at planting his feet and firing straight combinations down the pipe. Medić is known for brutal body work. Analysts have noted that Neal has occasionally struggled with high-pace strikers who target the midsection. Medić’s best path to victory involves using his knees and kicks to the body to “fold” Neal before going for the head. He will need to do it early, though, otherwise Neal could take over as the fight goes on. Medic landing something big in the first round isn’t out of this world, but if he doesn’t get it done early, this will be a war heading in Neal’s favor as the rounds progress.
Sean Strickland
3.25
1.35
Anthony Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez doesn’t just shoot; he chains. He holds the record for a massive number of takedown attempts per fight (averaging over 6 per 15 minutes). He wants to turn this into a “miserable” grinding match against the cage. Even though he starts slow, he pushes a crazy pace and finds ways to take over the fight while demoralizing his opponents. He’s on a crazy run right now and is officially in the title picture after working his way up the ladder over the last five years.
Sean Strickland is known for his high volume, low power output that drains the average fighter over time. While elite fighters have been able to overcome that pace, he’s proven to be one of the best middleweights in the world. Coming off a year-long suspension for jumping the fence at a regional show, Strickland makes his way back against the hottest prospect on the rise.
This will be a grueling, high-volume affair. While Hernandez is the favorite due to his recent 8-fight win streak, Strickland’s ability to stay upright and point-fight could make this much closer than the odds suggest. Strickland needs to use the jab to keep Hernandez at the end of his reach. If he can stop the first 10 takedown attempts, Hernandez might be forced into a striking match where Sean is far more polished.
Hernandez uses his striking primarily as a bridge to get into clinching range. While his striking has improved, he isn’t looking to out-box a technician like Strickland; he wants to make the striking exchanges “ugly” to find his entry. This will all come down to whether Hernandez can get Strickland to the mat.
UFC Houston Best Bets
2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
2026 Record: 7-8, +1.01 Units
(All bets 1 Unit Unless Specified)
Del Valle / Judice / Edwards Parlay @ 1.82 (1.5 Units)
We haven’t seen Jordan Leavitt in some time, but this is a play on how good Del Valle has looked early in his career. He’s a legitimate prospect and has another opportunity to prove himself against an inactive fighter whose best look is usually the early grappling.
If Carli Judice avoids the ground, this will be an absolute walk in the park. She’s far and wide the better striker and just needs to avoid any grappling attempts from Juliana Miller to dominate the fight.
Joselyne Edwards has looked like a new fighter since training with Valentina Shevchenko, and this should be a showcase spot for her. It’s a rematch, which she originally lost, but many thought she won. She’s big for the division, has power in her hands, and can also use her wrestling to dominate the fight.
Njokuani-Leal / Neal-Medic / Spivac-Delija ‘Fight Not to Start Round 3’ Parlay @ 2.50
Both Chidi Njokuani and Carlos Leal tend to start fast, and if Njokuani can’t finish the fight in the first, he tends to slow down as the fight goes on.
Medic has never been to a decision in his MMA career, and if he can’t finish this fight in the first round, Neal will take over and come back with plenty of power as he looks to finish the fight.
Delija to finish early seems like the most likely scenario, but even if this gets out of the first, there’s a long-shot chance Spivac gets a submission in the second, or it takes Delija longer to finish.
Ramiz Brahimaj to Win @ 1.86
This is a pretty good line on a fighter who seems to be improving with every fight and should have some advantages against Punahele Soriano. Brahimaj is a good grappler, and if he survives a big first round, the submission game will be wide open. Soriano has turned to a wrestling game recently, but Brahimaj is the better grappler. As long as he doesn’t get finished early, Brahimaj should find ways to take over this fight.
Neal-Medic Fight to End in Round 1 @ 1.80
Obviously, the books agree with this lean, and the best part about this bet is we’re getting value on both sides. Medic, at his best, looks like a world-beater in the first round, and it’s the best path to victory here. If he makes any mistakes, Neal will be happy to take advantage.
Sean Strickland +9.5 Spread @ 1.80
I’m all in on the Fluffy train as well, but this is such a massive line. Strickland is the perfect dance partner, with solid counter-wrestling and grappling skills. On top of that, he pushes a heavy volume pace on the feet and has been durable in his UFC career. This line suggests that Strickland can’t win a single round against Hernandez, and I’m willing to see if that’s true.
Carli Judice to KO/TKO @ 1.67 (1.5 units)
This is a heavy mismatch on the feet. There is a fear of the takedowns, but Judice should be the better athlete and is by far the better striker. This one could get ugly.
Michel Pereira to Finish @ 2.00
Pereira has let us down in the past, and I’ll probably never forget that performance, but he looks hungrier and understands that he’s on the hot seat. In terms of experience and strength of schedule, this is one of his easier fights to date. Reese has some power and can grapple, but Pereira should be able to find ways to end this fight over three rounds.
Dan Ige to KO/TKO @ 5.00 (0.25 Units)
This is purely a path to victory, playing against a fighter who only loses to elite opponents. Costa is a surging prospect, but this will be one of his toughest fights to date. He has a solid kicking game and is a good grappler, but if this fight stays standing, Ige will inch closer and closer to finishing the fight over three rounds. This number is too good to pass up.
Coming off two numbered cards and a lackluster UFC Vegas 113, UFC Houston has the potential to bring back the excitement. This is a fantastic card with numerous hungry fighters vying to move up the rankings. We’re just getting started in 2026. Keep it locked to SlotsFighter to get all the best bets for UFC cards, and don’t forget to follow SlotsFighter and SOOKY MMA on Instagram.
