UFC Noche was somewhat frustrating from a betting perspective, resulting in a loss of 0.70 units due to a few lackluster performances. Had Alice Pereira hit the gas pedal, we would’ve hit a nice parlay to come out with some profit. She ended up losing a close split decision.
With that, we’re still up +9.19 Units, but we need to do a lot better after a couple of frustrating cards over the past few weeks.
The UFC heads back to Australia with another fun card filled with plenty of Australian talent on display. Let’s hope we can find some solid betting spots later in the week, but let’s take a look at the main card.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Justin Tafa
1.84
1.98
Louie Sutherland
This fight is fringe UFC quality, at best. Many people have questioned whether the Tafa brothers should still be in the UFC, but they’re getting every possible chance to succeed with the promotion. Tafa has already missed weight at heavyweight, but he gets another opportunity at redemption at home in Australia.
Making his UFC debut, Louis Sutherland is 10-3 but riding a four-fight win streak with Levels Fight League. He’s never been finished and packs a serious punch, but he tends to work up against the cage.
This fight shouldn’t be happening, but both guys have a chance at making their mark in the UFC. If Sutherland chooses to stand and bang, he will be dodging Tafa’s heavier strikes earlier in the fight. If Tafa doesn’t finish this fight early, he will likely have to defend Sutherland’s clinching and potential takedowns to steal the fight. Either way, this is a tough fight to call, and even harder to get excited about.
Tom Nolan
1.64
2.30
Charlie Campbell
Tom Nolan looks a lot better at the UFC level. He’s been a lot more active than Charlie Campbell and is coming off a solid win against Viacheslav Borshchev. He’s riding a three-fight win streak after his surprising loss to Nikolas Motta, and is 9-1 overall.
Charlie Campbell could be underrated going into this fight. His level of competition is pretty high, and his last loss to Chris Duncan on Dana White’s Contender Series is aging like fine wine. He’s fought in top regional promotions like CFFC, Fury, Bellator, and Ring of Combat, which goes a long way in preparing for the UFC.
What makes this fight exciting is that both fighters are hittable and will come back with a vengeance. Based on both fighters’ regional experience, the odds should be a little closer. Both guys have been finished on the feet, so this could come down to who has the best timing at the right time. If we don’t get an early finish, expect this to be a dark horse candidate for fight of the night.
Jake Matthews
1.27
3.85
Neil Magny
Jake Matthews comes into UFC Perth as the biggest favorite on the card. His last three fights have been impressive wins over good competition. Chidi Njokuani was on the rise, but Matthews put a stop to that with his grappling in under two minutes. He’s been in the UFC for most of his professional career, and at 31 years old, his 22 UFC fights are starting to pay off.
Neil Magny is the definition of a professional veteran. He’s fought the UFC’s best prospects over his last few fights and seems to win any time he gets middle-of-the-pack competition. He’s 5-5 in his last 10 fights, but his losses have come against Shavkat Rakhmonov, Gilbert Burns, Ian Garry, Michael Morales, and Carlos Prates. His last fight proved he’s far from done and deserves to be taking on some of the better fighters in the UFC.
Skill-wise, this is the best fight on the card. Both guys have insane UFC experience, are at different points in their careers, but continue to prove they belong in the UFC. While the line suggests Matthews should be able to dominate the fight, Magny will always make it competitive. Barring a flash finish early in the fight, the grappling could be close if it comes down to clinch work against the fence and wrestling for position. These are the kind of fights you expect from the UFC.
Jack Jenkins
1.35
3.25
Ramon Tavares
Numbers-wise, this fight has been jumping all over the place. All that means is we’re in for a competitive, fun fight, but this fight will come down to who can win the better minutes in the striking battles.
It would be shocking to see this fight hit the ground, but it’s hard to know who will have the upper hand if it does. Jenkins has been submitted three times in his career, while Tavares has never been submitted. In Jenkins’ defense, his last submission was a verbal tapout to Chepe Mariscal due to injury, and his previous two were back in 2017-18. If this fight does hit the ground, chances are, it will come down to who has the better get-up game.
Tavares should have the edge in pure boxing, but Jenkins throws much better kicks. He’ll want to keep this fight in kickboxing range while mixing up his strikes and landing in volume. Both fighters have plenty of knockout wins and have been finished on the feet. This will come down to who can manage distance better and find their offense more consistently. Regardless of who wins, these odds seem far too wide.
Jimmy Crute
1.54
2.54
Ivan Erslan
From a betting perspective, how do you trust either fighter? Jimmy Crute can look like a world-beater against certain competition, like Marcin Prachnio last time out, but he’s still 1-3-2 in his last six fights. The last time he won two fights in a row was in 2020 with two first-round submissions. His personal battles have been a major issue over the last five years, and he recently ‘came out of retirement’ due to financial struggles. This could be the UFC giving him a real chance, on a big card at home, against a questionable opponent, to make a massive leap in his UFC and MMA career.
No offense to Ivan Erslan, but this is a massive step up after his last two UFC losses. He lost a split decision to Ion Cutelaba, then was beaten pretty badly in a one-sided decision against Navajo Stirling. Some believe that the fight should have been stopped in the third round, given Erlsan’s body language. Erslan made a name for himself in Poland’s KSW, but he has yet to find similar success in the UFC.
While this fight could be a fun, entertaining bout, it’s far too difficult to consider a wager. While Crute could easily finish this fight in the first round, it’s hard to predict what will happen if this fight reaches the second round. Time and time again, Crute tends to fade later in the fights, making them far too close to call. If Erslan survives the early onslaught and has good energy in the final two rounds, this really could be anyone’s fight. Just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show with this one.
Carlos Ulberg
1.38
3.10
Dominick Reyes
This main event has a lot on the line. Carlos Ulberg isn’t young, but he’s been on a path of destruction and is finally looking like a real contender. On the other side, Dominick Reyes has already been there and fought the best, but now he’s finding his second wind and looking more polished than before. Will it be the new guy on the block, or the gritty veteran who comes away with the big win?
This comes down to who can exploit their opponent’s weaknesses faster. Reyes has struggled with durability, but he’s looked more responsible lately and his power is doing him favours in big fights. For Ulberg, he’s never seen five rounds and now gets a tough test if he can’t finish him early. Reyes’ best chance is to weather the storm, land big, work the body, and hope to take this fight into deep waters.This is anyone’s fight in the championship rounds.
If Ulberg learned how to control his stamina and wait for his moment, he could find a way to finish this fight in the first three rounds. He’s a solid kickboxer and packs a punch, but if the volume is too high without much success, Reyes can take over this fight. Both guys have paths to victory, but it all comes down to the first few rounds and who finds success the fastest. Of all the fights on this card, this has the most on the line, with plenty to dissect with two solid fighters hoping for a title shot.
UFC PERTH BEST BETS
Matthews / Ulberg to Win @ 1.76
Jake Matthews is coming into his own after a long UFC career, and Neil Magny doesn’t have the power to finish him.
Carlos Ulberg is on the title path and gets a savvy veteran who struggles with good strikers and could take too much damage in this one.
Alexia Thainara / Jimmy Crute to Win @ 2.08 (0.5 Units)
Alexia Thainara could be the real deal. She has solid striking, but her grappling is high-level. Loma Lookboonmee is a great Muay Thai fighter, but she’s struggled with grapplers and well-rounded fighters in the past. Thainara should be able to get the takedowns sooner or later.
Colby Thicknesse to Win at 2.30 (0.5 Units)
Colby Thicknesse trains with Alexander Volkanovski, and there may not be a better mind to get behind. Josias Musasa has some punching power, but Thicknesse should be the more well-rounded fighter. Solid price on what should be an even fight.
Charlie Campbell to Win @ 2.24 (0.5 Units)
Even with a year’s layoff, Charlie Campbell’s recent loss to Chris Duncan is aging well. This is a number play where the fight should be close with two solid strikers with questionable chins.
Sterling / Matthews / Pericic / UIberg to Win @ 3.63 (0.5 Units)
Navajo Sterling is a solid spot to build off a dominant win. Even if he doesn’t get the finish, he should do enough to get the decision.
Brando Pericic should be the more well-rounded fighter and should be able to take this fight, maybe even find a finish.
The main event should be a fun fight with dark-horse title implications on the line. While the rest of the card is mostly designed to showcase some Australian talent, the main event should help the card end with a bang. With several fringe fighters getting another chance, they should have a fire lit to come away with a big win. That should create excitement throughout the entire card.
