UFC 322: Dariush vs Saint-Denis Headlines the Year’s Strongest Card

UFC Vegas 111 turned out better than people expected. There were a few upsets, but the finishes were a fun watch. We played it safe with only three bets, and we profited +1.34 Units. We now sit at a comfy +19.788 Units heading into UFC 322.

UFC 322 could be the best card of the year. From top to bottom, every fight is competitive and features a good stylistic matchup. There should be far more betting opportunities compared to last week, so let’s get into the main card breakdown, and be sure to check back later in the week for our UFC 322 best bets.

MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN

Bneil Dariush

2.64

1.50

Benoit Saint-Denis

There seems to be a lot of recency bias built into this line, and rightfully so. Benoit Saint-Denis is coming off two wins, including a major upset over Mauricio Ruffy, while Beneil Dariush is coming off a well-constructed win over Renato Moicano after losing to Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira. When you consider the level of competition, though, this line could be a little wild.

Dariush’s durability is in question after two first round losses, and getting dropped by Moicano early in their fight. Saint-Denis packs some power and has been relatively durable during his UFC career. At the same time, Dariush has been known to drop a few bodies, and his grappling has elite. If he employs a wrestling-heavy gameplan, and works his grappling from top control, it will be interesting to see how Saint-Denis responds.

Saint-Denis’ best path to victory is to do immense damage on the feet to the point where he’s the much fresher fighter. He can then dictate where the fight takes place, and maybe the get the best of a fading Dariush. Saint-Denis averages 4.35 takedowns/15 mins, and he’s a great grappler as well, but with both guys fresh, the edge has to be given to Dariush. This fight is closer than the betting lines suggest, and it should come down to the better-executed gameplan and sheer durability.

Leon Edwards

2.60

1.52

Carlos Prates

Leon Edwards has taken plenty of heat during his fall from grace. While his head kick heard around the world against Kamaru Usman will be hard for anyone to top, the level of competition caught up to him quickly and he fell down the ranks fast. This time around, he gets another surging contender in Carlos Prates who looked incredible even in his loss, and recently beat Geoff Neal in a bad way.

This fight is all about pace. Prates proved that the cigarette smoking has little to no effect on his cardio and he was able to outlast Ian Garry late in their fight. Edwards is known for picking his shots, throwing fairly rudimentary combos, and using his defense to out-point his opponents. This won’t be that kind of fight. Prates is a hunter and continues to push a pace even after getting hit. We have yet to see him hurt at the UFC level, and his ability to pick his shots is elite.

Edwards has been vocal about his injuries leading up to recent fights, how he plans to win against Prates, and his plans after UFC 322. He’s been fighting wrestlers for most of his time at the top, and this will be his first time fighting a striker since Nick Diaz. The most important takeaway is Edwards has been training for three rounds. It’s important to start fast instead of pacing yourself for 25 minutes, and that could be a major improvement for Edwards. This fight is one of the more exciting fights with so much riding on the outcome, and either guy has a chance to pull off the win.

Sean Brady

1.70

2.20

Michael Morales

Sean Brady and Michael Morales should be fighting in a main event. It may not be PPV level, but they are on the cusp of entering the title picture and deserve to headline a card. Not only would it make sense to watch both fighters over the course of five rounds, but it prepares them for the next level. Brady absolutely dominated Edwards last time out, while Morales made it look far too easy against Gilbert Burns.

Brady hasn’t been the same fighter since the Belal Muhammad loss. He’s a lot more poised, manages his cardio well, and is patient in his approach. He has solid wrestling, great grappling and improved striking. Morales, on the other hand, hasn’t been tested in a big way so far in the UFC. We’ve barely had to see him grapple, and his striking is putting him on the map. Regardless of his past performances, this will be his hardest test so far. He maintains a seven-inch reach advantage, and throws 5.62 strikes/minute. He’ll need to use those distance strikes to find success while keeping Brady at bay.

If Brady can get the fight down, he’ll do his best work from top position. It will be interesting to see how Morales responds if that happens, but it’s Brady’s most common path to victory. Brady’s efficiency on the feet is what makes him so good. He maintains a 59% striking defense and lands at a 55% clip. Morales will need to work around that, avoid the takedowns, and land big shots on Brady to slow him down. If he does, he’ll make a pretty good case to fight for the title soon.

Valentina Shevchenko

1.80

2.05

Zhang Weili

This is the type of high-level WMMA fans want to see. Zhang Weili is moving up to fight Valentina Shevchenko for the flyweight title after dominating at strawweight. Both fighters are so skilled that it’s hard to predict where either fighter will have an edge. While Shevchenko has spent most of her combat sports career practicing her muay thai and kickboxing, her wrestling and grappling is what helped her along the way. Weili is a clean, powerful striker, but her improved wrestling and grappling is what’s making her so dangerous.

Will the size difference matter? Weili comes off strong for the strawweight division, so this shouldn’t be too much of a jump. On top of that, stylistically, this is a good opportunity for both fighters. It’s razor thin in terms of separation, but Weili is hungry to prove she belongs in the female GOAT conversation. It’s hard to see either fighter finishing this fight given how durable and how much they avoid the dangerous areas of the fight.

If Shevchenko can find success in striking early on, there’s a chance she entertains that for the majority of the fight. She’s had to mix it up in the past, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Weili try to use a grappling gameplan to avoid some of Shevchenko’s best skills. This fight is all about gameplan, who believes they’re better. It will be a perfect chess match.

Jack Della Maddalena

3.30

1.35

Islam Makhachev

This is another line that seems a little wide, but Islam Makhachev has been the pound-for-pound number one for years. He looks absolutely shredded for his welterweight debut and we know what to expect when it comes to his style and output over five rounds. Makhachev relinquished his lightweight belt for this opportunity, so this could be considered the biggest fight of his career so far. 

How good is Jack Della Maddalena? Some of his wins were a little too close for comfort, but his improvement over those fights have been incredible. We saw incredible durability and heart against Burns, then we got a look at his peak skill level and grit in his title win over Muhammad. 

The biggest knock on his game is he takes damage. He’s been hit with 4.53 strikes/min, but maintains a solid defense of 64%. His chin is granite for now, so avoiding the grappling exchanges with Makhachev will be far more important than dealing with his boxing.

Makhachev’s boxing is a lot better now. We’ve seen the improvements over time, and it was the Dustin Poirier fight we got to see how much better his timing and shot selection have gotten. It pairs well with his grappling-heavy style because it allows him to do damage from anywhere in the fight. If he gets top position, he’s always looking for ground-and-pound and submissions, which is why it’s so hard to get up once he gets you down. If you’re a Maddalena believer, you not only hope he can avoid the takedowns, but get up if the fight gets there. If he can’t, it’ll be short night for him.

UFC 322 promises to be one of the best cards all year. Not only should it deliver, but there are plenty of fights to consider coming out of this card. Whether we see upsets or big favorites proving themselves, we should see some big changes heading into next year. The first PPV of the new year should be a banger, so expect the absolute best from the UFC as we close 2025 with a massive UFC 322 card.