UFC Vegas 104 is a return to normalcy after incredible back-to-back cards from the UFC. While the card could surprise with some solid fights, there’s no chance they can live up to UFC 313 and UFC Seattle.
A better question is, can we live up to UFC 313? For our first live update best bets article last week, we were up +2.13 units, with our fight doesn’t go the distance parlay voiding and Alex Pereira falling short against Magomed Ankalaev.
Similar to last week, we will update this article with our favorite bets for UFC Vegas 104, so check back in later in the week before laying your bets. For now, here’s a breakdown of the UFC Vegas 104 main card.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze
This is an interesting rematch for the UFC to consider so soon, but it makes a lot of sense. Before losing to Jared Cannonier, Vettori beat Roman Dolidze in 2023.
This fight seems to be revolved around Dolidze. After losing to Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov, Dolidze has beaten Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland via rib injury. Looking at the state of the middleweight division, these two have to fight someone, and without many options, they’re running it back.
This fight will be five rounds instead of three, which should favour Vettori. He is a good wrestler, with improving striking, great cardio and an absolute rock for a head. Despite facing some of the best power punchers at middleweight, Vettori has never been knocked out. He’s 9-5 in the UFC but it feels like he’s been around forever.
Dolidze is in a different boat. He came into the UFC a little later than Vettori and, in some of the sloppy exchanges, he struggled with the level changing and cardio management. With Vettori’s strengths, it’s hard to see Dolidze get the win. He’s usually spamming takedowns, especially if he’s tired, but Vettori should have an answer for that.
Chidi Njokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleksi dos Santos
This might be a questionable co-main event, but we just finished watching Cody Brundage and Julian Marquez in the same spot. The good news is Chidi Njokuani and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos love to throw down and mix it up on the feet.
Dos Santos is the more experienced fighter and should have a solid upper hand here. Njokuani will rely heavily on his striking and to keep dos Santos at bay. There’s a seven inch reach advantage for Njokouani and he has a style that can utilize it. The big question will be can he return to his old self? He’s 2-0 in his last two after losing his previous three against strong competition. As a striker, it’ll be important for him to stay disciplined and pick his shots, otherwise, dos Santos will be all over him.
It would not be surprising to see the veteran dos Santos to come away with the victory.
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh
Similar to Cody Gibson, who is fighting on the same card, Kurt Holobaugh made his way back to the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter. After beating Austin Hubbard in the final, Holobaugh is 1-1 in the UFC but has only been finished twice in his career, once via submission and the other via knockout. In what should be one of his tougher fights this late in his career, Alexander Hernandez is hoping to play spoiler.
Hernandez has come a long way. He had cardio issues and that affected his decision making in the fight. Now, he looks a lot more comfortable, but he’s still 2-3 in his last UFC fights. He’s a solid striker but hasn’t been tested by someone who can eat a lot of damage and will try and smother you. If he doesn’t have the cardio to go three strong rounds against Hernandez, there’s a good chance Hernandez pieces him up. It’s almost guaranteed this fight doesn’t see our final betting card later this week, but this should still be an absolute banger.
Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson
For the die hards and old heads, this fight isn’t so bad. Da’Mon Blackshear is quite skilled and is coming off an impressive win over Cody Stamann. He dominated the first round and locked up a submission in the process. It was a solid return to form after dropping his last two fights against top contenders. This time, he gets the surging Gibson who returned to the UFC from his teaching career through The Ultimate Fighter.
After losing the TUF Finale to Brad Katona, Gibson is 2-1 in the UFC. His submission of Brian Kelleher was one of his best wins, and his ability to hang with Chad Anheliger was also impressive. Will Blackshear be too much this time? Blackshear has never been submitted and has shown good cage IQ. This could be a close battle, but Blackshear is the younger fighter with respectable losses. It’s hard to see Gibson having his way on the ground in this fight, and may not have the striking to keep things in his favor.
Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Kazakh fighters are starting to make a statement in the UFC. With Shavkat Rakhmonov leading the charge, several fighters have joined the UFC ranks. Add Diyar Nurgozhay to that list. The UFC must see something special in him as this fight was moved to the main card earlier this week.
Is Brendson Ribeiro another example of favorable matchmaking by the UFC? Since winning his Dana White Contender Series fight, he’s 1-2 in the UFC with a split decision win last time out. What stands out is he doesn’t do anything extremely well, but can hold his own. Nurgozhay has finished eight of his 10 wins and has never lost. While Ribeiro could put up a fight, it seems like the UFC is using this spot to promote Nurgozhay in this fight.
SeungWoo Choi vs. Kevin Vallejos
This is the definition of a setup fight for Kevin Vallejos. After giving Jean Silva the best run for his money since his UFC arrival, Vallejos is another fighter the UFC wants to promote on the big stage. SeungWoo Choi is answering the bell and it’s a terrible matchup for him.
Vallejos packs a punch and comes in with some power, but his striking differential suggests he’s hittable. Choi will have a six inch reach advantage, but will it be enough? Choi has been finished via strikes in the first round three times, two of which came in two of his last three fights. He’s 1-4 in his previous five, while Vallejos has only lost to Silva and is riding a three fight win streak. It will be hard to go against the Argentine in what seems to be the perfect matchup for him.
UPDATED INFORMATION:
Kevin Vallejos to Win in Round 1 @ 2.75
Kevin Vallejos
1.16
3.40
Sueng Woo Choi
Seung Woo Choi is a solid fighter, but his durability is questionable. Kevin Vallejos is getting a lot of hype going into this fight after his recent UFC performances, especially against Jean Silva. Vallejos to finish is 1.44 but seven of his 10 knockouts have come in the first round. Choi has been knocked out three times, two of which came in the first round in two of his last three fights. Vallejos’ early pace could be enough to secure the finish early, which will cash the more valuable bet if you’re on the Vallejos side.
Ryan Spann to Win @ 2.42
Ryan Spann
2.42
1.59
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Ryan Spann is moving up to heavyweight. Without the weight cut, I expect better endurance and improved durability. That will help him against Waldo Cortes-Acosta who has proven boxing skills at the heavyweight level. If Spann keeps it standing, this line will make a lot of sense and the fight should be competitive. However, if Spann finds ways to keep it in the clinch, look for takedowns, and dominate the ground, he should have the upper hand. If you want to take it one step further, consider the submission prop at 5.00.
Sam Hughes to Win @ 2.95 (0.5 Units)
Stephanie Luciano
1.42
2.95
Sam Hughes
Women’s MMA can always be counted on for big surprises. Stephanie Luciano moves well and throws with volume. She tries to keep it technical, has good take-down defense and clean striking, but can Sam Hughes push a better pace? Luciano was the Jungle Fight champion before appearing on Dana White’s Contender Series, and ended up debuting against the same fighter. If it’s competitive on the feet, a takedown from the more experienced Hughes could be the difference. With the current judging woes and how WMMA usually plays out, Hughes deserves a look at almost three times your money.
Parlay: Marvin Vettori / Kevin Vallejos / Andre Lima @ 2.34
Marvin Vettori is back and getting a rematch against Roman Dolidze. Both guys are durable and will look to take the fight into the later rounds. Vettori is the cleaner fighter and tends to lose to elite strikers. Dolidze is a grinder and doesn’t finish fights. He will take you to the deep end and hope to outlast you. Vettori should welcome the challenge with open arms. The best part about the Vettori leg of the parlay is you can hedge out to guarantee profit if the other two legs hit.
Vallejos was mentioned earlier for a much nicer number given the potential outcomes, but he should be able to secure the win.
Andre Lima is known mostly for his in-cage antics and getting bit, but in terms of skill, he has solid striking and Daniel Barez is more of a grappler. If this fight goes past the first round, Barez could struggle with fatigue and endurance if he overworks in the first round. Lima should be able to defend the takedowns over three rounds and use his striking to secure the victory.
UFC Vegas 104 will be judged on how exciting the fights end as the main card concludes. They’re early enough in the day that people may skip the early prelims, but if the main card can live up to half the hype of last week’s, MMA fans should be grateful for another solid night of fights.
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