UFC Vegas 123 was the fight night we were hoping for. Outside of Renato Moicano getting absolutely screwed in his fight, we came away with +4.076 Units with a 4-1 record, and now sit at +26.744 Units on the year.
The road to 30+ Units continues with UFC Vegas 124. Waldo Cortes-Acosta takes on Johnny Walker in a heavyweight main event, while Tatiana Suarez gets Virna Jandiroba in the co-main event. Both fights have dark horse title implications, which should make for exciting fights.
Let’s take a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Vegas 124 best bets.
UFC Vegas 124 Main Card Breakdown
Mantas Kondratavičius
1.34
3.35
Andrei Petroski
Mantas Kondratavičius is an explosive, hard-hitting prospect with a high rate of early finishes. Standing 6’2″ with a 75-inch reach, Kondratavičius leverages a high-octane striking game built around devastating overhand rights, heavy calf kicks, and precise clinch knees. While he holds a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has demonstrated opportunistic submission capability off scrambles, his aggression in open space can leave defensive gaps if he gets drawn into long, high-tempo wrestling exchanges.
Mantas Kondratavičius MMA HIGHLIGHTS 2026 | Professional 8-1 Fighter UFC Prospect | Cage Warriors
Andre Petroski brings an experienced, heavy-handed chain-wrestling style backed by a strong Philadelphia grappling lineage. The American thrives on imposing physical, forward-marching pressure, using explosive level-changes to drag opponents to the mat where he can work for suffocating top control and front-headlock submission chokes. However, Petroski’s open-space striking defense and chin durability have faced severe tests, making him vulnerable to high-amplitude power-punchers during initial level-change entries.
The contest presents a classic dynamic between Kondratavičius’ explosive outer-ring knockout power and Petroski’s persistent, mat-focused wrestling entries. Petroski’s clearest path to victory relies on ducking under the Lithuanian’s early power combinations, smothering him against the fence, and imposing a heavy ground-and-pound pace over three rounds. However, Kondratavičius’ superior height, length, and lethal counter-striking give him the tactical edge to catch Petroski coming in, defend the early takedowns, and land a decisive stoppage win in open space.
Billy Elekana
3.60
1.30
Lucas Fernando
Billy Elekana enters this light heavyweight contest as a physical, late-blooming power-threat who couples heavy athleticism with opportunistic submission skills. The 6’3″ southpaw relies on relentless physical forward pressure, heavy body strikes, and aggressive transitions on the canvas. While his physical strength, durable chin, and submission opportunistic nature make him dangerous early, his high-tempo style can leave striking defense gaps when forced into prolonged, distance-based kickboxing battles
Lucas Fernando brings elite striking credentials, dynamic length, and high-level regional title experience. A former national kickboxing champion and multi-division LFA champion training under Pedro Rizzo, the 6’3″ Brazilian utilizes an 80-inch reach to launch devastating calf kicks, sharp straight left-right combinations, and heavy knees in the clinch. Holding a black belt in both kickboxing and BJJ, Fernando excels when controlling the outer ring, though his defensive wrestling can be tested against relentless level-changers.
The matchup features an intriguing contest between Elekana’s aggressive, heavy-grappling pressure and Fernando’s long-range kickboxing foundation. Fernando’s clearest path to victory lies in using his three-inch reach advantage and low calf kicks to manage distance, pick Elekana apart from the outside, and deny the southpaw clean entry lines. However, Elekana’s superior top-control physical strength, body-striking entries, and opportunistic submission threat give him the chance to drag Fernando to the mat, enforce high-damage ground-and-pound, and secure a submission finish or grueling decision win.
Seokhyeon Ko
1.14
6.00
Wellington Turman
Seokhyeon Ko is a sharp, highly disciplined prospect built on high-volume positional control and surgical strike selection. Ko excels at dictating spatial boundaries with an exceptional 65% defensive striking rate, absorbing minimal damage while setting up multi-takedown sequences. While his high-percentage wrestling entries and steady top-position control neutralize explosive opponents, his lower finish rate means he often relies on enforcing a rigorous, methodical pace to secure decisions over three rounds.
Wellington Turman brings aggressive Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt credentials, durable clinch work, and high-volume submission threats. Possessing 12 career finish victories and extensive UFC experience across middleweight and welterweight, Turman thrives when he can drag fights into unpredictable scrambling exchanges. However, his reliance on aggressive grappling entries can leave him defensively exposed, resulting in low takedown defense metrics and vulnerability against compact, disciplined counter-wrestlers.
The bout presents a direct stylistic contest between Ko’s positional discipline and defensive efficiency versus Turman’s opportunistic submission-hunting and high-risk scrambles. Turman’s clearest path to victory lies in forcing a chaotic grappling fight early, snatching a neck during a level change, or using his length to lock up a submission on the canvas. However, Ko’s superior defensive striking, relentless takedown average, and structured top control give him the edge to manage the entries, stifle Turman’s sweeps, and grind out a clear decision win.
Davey Grant
3.50
1.32
Elijah Smith
Davey Grant is renowned for his relentless, wild striking output, durability, and high-volume scrambles. The 40-year-old thrives when he can drag opponents into high-variance brawls, unleashing heavy body hooks, spinning kicks, and opportunistic submission counters. While his willingness to absorb damage in exchange for offensive momentum makes him an unpredictable threat, his defensive striking openings and susceptibility to aggressive wrestling entries leave him exposed against technical fighters.
Elijah Smith is a surging, athletic prospect featuring explosive wrestling, rapid level changes, and sharp open-space combination punching. Holding a 10-1 professional record with strong promotional momentum, Smith excels at managing range with his 71-inch reach before ducking under strikes to initiate well-timed takedowns. While his open-space striking defense faces a stern test against an unpredictable brawler, his speed, double-leg entries, and top-control efficiency make him a formidable assignment for division veterans.
The contest features a direct clash between Grant’s chaotic violence and Smith’s explosiveness and chain wrestling. Grant’s clearest path to victory relies on punishing Smith’s entries with uppercuts, forcing a high-tempo brawl in open space, and overwhelming Smith with creative striking combinations. However, Smith’s superior speed, sharp timing on level changes, and crisp wrestling base give him the edge to dictate where the fight takes place, drag Grant to the mat, and control the rounds for a clear decision victory.
Tatiana Suarez
1.48
2.70
Virna Jandiroba
Tatiana Suarez is an elite wrestling powerhouse with world-class freestyle credentials and dominant submission skills. Relying on a relentless, crushing top-control game, Suarez excels at timing explosive double-leg takedowns, driving opponents to the canvas, and imposing heavy ground-and-pound while hunting high-percentage submissions like the guillotine and rear-naked choke. While her striking continues to improve behind a long jab and heavy front kicks, her wrestling and physical size remain her best assets.
Virna Jandiroba brings an elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt base, exceptional submission skills, and continuous forward pressure. The former Invicta FC champion has steadily expanded her MMA repertoire, developing sharp single-leg entries and high-volume pocket boxing to complement her dangerous guard sweeps and back-takes. While her open-space kickboxing can be out-ranged by longer strikers, her durability, active submission threats off her back, and relentless positional scrambling make her a severe threat whenever the fight goes to the mat.
The matchup sets up a tactical battle between Suarez’s top-position wrestling force and Jandiroba’s high-level BJJ submissions and scrambling. Jandiroba’s clearest path to victory lies in capitalizing on a Suarez takedown attempt to throw up a fast submission counter, isolate an arm, or reverse position during a high-speed scramble. However, Suarez’s superior physical strength, crushing top control, and world-class wrestling base give her the chance to ground Jandiroba, neutralize her sweeps, and enforce heavy ground-and-pound to earn a late stoppage or clear decision victory.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
1.43
2.90
Johnny Walker
Waldo Cortés-Acosta is a durable, volume-heavy striker with a professional boxing foundation and a high-paced striking rhythm. Operating out of a relaxed stance, Cortés-Acosta relies on high-output jab-cross combinations, heavy leg kicks, and persistent boxing pressure to wear opponents down over three rounds. While his footwork and high-volume output allow him to control range in open-space striking exchanges, his reliance on active boxing output can leave him vulnerable to heavy level-change entries and relentless chain-wrestling from persistent grapplers.
Johnny Walker brings athleticism, towering 6’6″ length, and unpredictable finishing capability into the heavyweight division. The Brazilian relies on an 82-inch reach to launch dynamic flying knees, unpredictable spinning backfists, and heavy combinations out of multiple stances. While his explosive bursts and length make him a constant threat to finish fights in a flash, his chin durability under pressure and propensity to stay extended during high-variance exchanges have historically exposed him to sharp counter-punchers.
The matchup features a high-stakes clash between Cortés-Acosta’s steady boxing volume and Walker’s explosive, wild athleticism. Walker’s clearest path to victory lies in using his length and unpredictable movement to disrupt Cortés-Acosta’s rhythm early, catching him off-guard with dynamic kicks or flying knee counters before he can set his feet. However, Cortés-Acosta’s tighter boxing fundamentals, consistent jab-cross entries, and steady defensive guard give him the structural edge to navigate the initial chaos, drag Walker into high-volume exchanges, and secure a decision or late-round stoppage win.
UFC Vegas 124 Best Bets
- 2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
- 2026 Record: 93-101-1 +26.744 Units
(All Bets 1 Unit Unless Specified)
Parsons-Souza Fight to End via KO @ 1.80
Jonny Parsons and Jose Souza will throw heavy punches, and both fighters have significant power. The big thing is Parsons has been out of action for a long time, and Souza looked great last time out. This is a solid number to cover both fighters finding a finishing blow.
Keiichiro Nakamura via KO/TKO @ 1.72
Ollie Schmid is 4-3 overall, and while he can land his own big shots, Keiichiro Nakamura should manage distance well and land the better shots. He has serious power, and once he gets rolling, he’ll be hard to stop.
Mantas Kondratavicius to Win in Round 1 @ 1.80
Andre Petroski will look to extend this fight at all costs. He will hunt for takedowns, try to chain wrestle, and hope to keep the fight on the ground. The thing is, if he can’t get the fight to the mat, he’s going to be a fish out of water, and Mantas Kondratavicius will be hunting for the finish early.
Lucas Fernando to Finish @ 2.00
Lucas Fernando is a technical fighter and has a great arsenal of strikes. Billy Elekana is tough and has good grappling, but he’s going to take an absolute beating when the fight is on the feet, and Fernando should be able to find the finish over three rounds.
Virna Jandiroba to Win @ 2.68
Tatiana Suarez’s game plan is clear. She wants to look for takedowns and counter wrestle as much as possible. While she has a good top game, she needs to avoid the transitions from Virna Jandiroba. Surprisingly, Jandiroba should be the better striker and should make this fight close. This number is far too wide, and we’ll take a chance on the ex-number one contender.
UFC Vegas 124 has several fun fights with clear hand-picked matchups by the UFC. Stylistically, the UFC is pitting fighters against tough technical matchups which should propel current favorites to a new level, or give a veteran underdog to pull off a massive upset. While the card lacks big names, plenty of up-and-coming fighters face true veterans who will look to steal a big win.
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