UFC 333 was a fantastic card, and we should have come away with bag, but unfortunately, the underdogs were barking. We went 2-3 overall for +0.475 Units. We now sit at +22.665 Units on the year heading into UFC Vegas 123.
UFC Vegas 123 features a main event bout between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan. While Moicano continues to give top contenders a run for their money, Nolan is hoping to prove he belongs at the top of the division. In the co-main event, Jacobe Smith gets his first real test against UFC veteran Randy Brown, which should be a solid back-and-forth battle.
As always, let’s take a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Vegas 123 best bets.
UFC Vegas 123 Main Card Breakdown
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
1.33
3.40
Farman Hasanov
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani is a versatile, finish-oriented grappling specialist with high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu credentials. A lifelong martial artist with a high finish rate across his professional victories, Lebosnoyani excels at initiating fast mat scrambles, securing dominant positions, and hunting high-percentage submissions. While his striking and striking defense continue to adapt under heavy output, his aggressive transition work and constant submission threats make him a dangerous weapon whenever the fight leaves space.
Farman Hasanov brings undefeated momentum, heavy pressure, and relentless physical grappling. Hasanov relies on powerful level changes, strong cage control, and devastating ground-and-pound to wear down opponents across rounds. While his upright striking defense can leave brief openings for quick counter-punchers, his durability, suffocating top position, and relentless physical engine make him a grinding assignment for anyone.
The matchup presents a compelling test between Lebosnoyani’s opportunistic submission game and Hasanov’s heavy physical control. Hasanov’s clearest path to victory relies on imposing his wrestling, keeping Lebosnoyani pinned on his back, and neutralizing guard passes with active ground-and-pound. However, Lebosnoyani’s superior scramble speed, active submission guard, and lethal transition game give him the tactical edge to capitalize on a takedown entry, isolate a limb or neck, and secure a submission victory.
Yana Santos
3.10
1.38
Luana Santos
Yana Santos is a seasoned veteran known for her clinch-heavy Muay Thai base, active kicking game, and high-level physical grit. Santos excels when she can push opponents against the fence, smothering their offense with knees, short elbows, and trip takedowns. While her open-space boxing defense and chin durability have been tested, her physical size, veteran composure, and relentless clinch work make her a tough assignment over three rounds.
Luana Santos brings dynamic youth, high-level judo hips, and explosive finishing ability. The Brazilian prospect relies on sharp head-arm throws, crisp pocket combinations, and aggressive submission hunting whenever fights hit the canvas. While her cardio and pacing can fade in a high-tempo grind, her explosive strength, quick level changes, and lethal top position allow her to turn the tide.
The bout sets up an intriguing clash between Yana’s veteran attrition and Luana’s explosive grappling. Luana’s clearest path to victory is rapid entries to isolate Yana in open space, execute a judo trip, and hunt for a quick submission on the mat. However, Yana’s superior cage control, physical durability, and grueling clinch management give her the structural edge to wear down her opponent, stifle her initial bursts, and grind out a hard-fought decision win.
Ode’ Osbourne
1.92
1.89
Cody Durden
Ode’ Osbourne enters this flyweight bout as an explosive southpaw striker possessing a long 73-inch reach and razor-sharp finishing instincts. Osbourne relies on high-speed lateral movement, sudden knees, and lethal combination punching to blitz opponents in open space. While his physical tools, length, and opportunistic submission skills off his back make him dangerous early, his defensive wrestling and habit of getting caught in scrambles under heavy pressure remain his technical vulnerabilities.
Cody Durden brings a grinding, high-volume wrestling base, physical toughness, and an uncompromising forward pressure. Averaging nearly four takedowns per fifteen minutes, he thrives when he can smother opposing strikers, enforce heavy cage work, and rack up ground control time. Though his open-space striking defense can leave his chin exposed during entry blitzes, his relentless cardio and ability to chain takedowns allow him to wear down speed-based opponents.
The contest features a classic matchup of Osbourne’s perimeter length and explosive counter-striking against Durden’s aggressive, chain-wrestling pressure. Durden’s clearest path to victory lies in ducking under Osbourne’s reach, grounding the fight early, and grinding out top control along the fence to drain Osbourne’s power and cardio. However, Osbourne’s six-inch reach advantage, superior range agility, and quick counter-knee entries give him the tactical edge to catch Durden coming in, secure a stoppage, or out-point him in open space for a clear decision.
Randy Brown
3.25
1.35
Jacobe Smith
Randy Brown is a long, highly skilled striker featuring a 78-inch reach, long jab-and-teep distance management, and fluid combination punching. Brown excels at utilizing footwork to stay on the outside, picking opponents apart with straight right hands and knee counters. While his defensive wrestling has improved, his tall stance and lighter frame can still be tested when forced to fight off his back against relentless, power-based wrestlers.
Jacobe Smith is an explosive wrestling standout possessing high-level collegiate credentials, raw knockout power, and dynamic athletic speed. Smith thrives when he can land explosive double-leg takedowns, slam opponents to the mat, and inflict damage through heavy ground-and-pound. While his open-space kickboxing and long-range striking mechanics need work, his strength, quick level changes, and forward pressure make him a dangerous assignment for distance-based strikers.
The contest sets up a classic range-versus-wrestling dynamic where spatial control dictates the fight’s trajectory. Smith’s clearest path to victory is getting inside Brown’s long reach, ducking under straight punches, and imposing a heavy mat-control game across three rounds. However, Brown’s superior range management, sharp jab-and-knee counters, and high-level experience give him the tactical edge to keep Smith at distance, neutralize the wrestling entries, and pick the prospect apart for a decision or late-round stoppage win.
Renato Moicano
1.81
2.02
Tom Nolan
Renato Moicano is a seasoned, elite veteran renowned for his suffocating Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, brutal ground-and-pound, and high-level experience. Training out of American Top Team, Moicano thrives when he can drag opponents into deep waters, using a sharp lead jab to establish distance before timing single and double-leg entries to force the fight to the mat. While his striking defense can be exploited during open-space brawls, his lethal rear-naked choke capabilities and relentless top control make him a severe threat whenever he establishes positional dominance.
Tom Nolan steps is a towering, power-hitting Australian prospect standing 6’3″ with explosive kickboxing range and dangerous submission instincts. Nolan utilizes his massive reach to land long straight lefts, destructive knees in the clinch, and sharp front kicks to keep opponents from closing distance. Although his takedowsn defense and defensive wrestling remain his ultimate test against elite grapplers, his continuous high-volume output and physical size give him instant knockout and submission leverage in transition.
The bout presents a premier tactical test pitting Moicano’s elite veteran grappling against Nolan’s dynamic physical size and long-range striking. Nolan’s clearest path to victory lies in using his length to keep Moicano on the outside, intercepting level-changes with knee counters, and forcing a high-damage kickboxing match over five rounds. However, Moicano’s superior BJJ pedigree, relentless top position, and proven main-event experience give him the structural edge to navigate Nolan’s early blitzes, complete the takedown, and secure a late submission or ground-and-pound victory.
UFC Vegas 123 Best Bets
- 2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
- 2026 Record: 89-100-1 +22.665 Units
(All Bets 1 Unit Unless Specified)
(Coming Soon…)
UFC Vegas 123 is a far stretch from UFC 333, but it’s a card with plenty of exciting fights and good matchups. The main event should be fun, and UFC fans should be intrigued by Smith taking on a veteran like Brown. Overall, there are better cards on the horizon, but UFC Vegas 123 is a lot better than some of the recent UFC cards we’ve seen.
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