APEX in August: UFC Returns to Las Vegas for Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld

We are on absolute fire right now!

UFC Belgrade was another fantastic showing for us, making +4.755 Units, for a total of +10.545 so far this year. It was a frustrating start, but we’re up over 15+ in the last month!

The UFC heads back to Vegas for UFC Vegas 120, featuring a main event between Mateusz Gamrot and Quillan Salkilld. While the card doesn’t carry the biggest names, some fun matchups should make for interesting fights. Let’s take a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Vegas 120 best bets.

UFC Vegas 120 Main Card Breakdown

Ty Miller

1.28

3.80

Billy Ray Goff

Ty Miller is just 26 years old and 7-0 overall. He won his UFC debut against Adam Fugitt via first-round knockout and is an exciting prospect. His boxing is solid; we’ve already seen his durability, and he’s coming through the CFFC and LFA regional path. He’s not proven, but he’s exactly what the UFC is looking for with his exciting style and boxing combinations.

Billy Ray Goff is the more experienced fighter at 9-4, and he’s 1-2 in the UFC. He got caught in a guillotine in the first round against Ramiz Brahimaj, but put on a show in his loss to Trey Waters. He’s got power on the feet but gets hit a lot. He mixes it up well, and can look for takedowns if the fight isn’t going his way. He’s still figuring things out at the UFC level, but he’s an exciting fighter who can put up a good fight against the right competition.

While we haven’t seen much of these fighters in the UFC, there are some glaring differences. Miller will come in with a five-inch reach advantage and has shown far better striking defense at 64%. He should be able to use his boxing to land the better combinations while hunting for a knockout. Goff should change levels in this one, forcing Miller to fight for position to keep the fight standing. That’s easily his best path to victory, and we’ll see if Miller can defend the takedowns to keep the fight on the feet.  

Amanda Lemos

2.95

1.42

Alexia Thainara

Amanda Lemos is at the tail end of her career, losing three of her last five fights. Even worse, the matchups have been terrible for her. The losses come against Virna Jandiroba, Tatiana Suarez, and Gillian Robertson, three of the best grapplers in the division. Things won’t change this time around, and she’s taking on someone much younger. She’s always been a good striker with solid volume and power, but she hasn’t had an opportunity to show it off in recent fights.

Alexia Thainara is one of the fresh faces in the UFC. She’s already 3-0 after her Dana White Contender Series fight, and is 14-1 overall. There’s no secret with her game plan, either. She’s an athletic grappler who will fight for position and control. She’s extremely skilled on the ground, but her game so far has been primarily ground and pound once getting the right positions. She has a lot of work to do on the feet, but she’s one of the fastest-growing prospects in the division.

This is a classic striker against grappler matchup. While Lemos wants to keep the fight standing, Thainara will do everything to get the fight to the ground. The 11-year age gap is a massive advantage, and experience will only get you so far. Lemos’ 63% takedown defense is a problem here, and Thainara has been solid defensively on the feet (59%). It’s hard to see Thainara losing, but it would not be surprising to see Lemos make the most of her opportunities if the fight stays standing.

Darren Elkins

6.25

1.13

Yadier del Valle

Darren Elkins is right on the edge of retirement. He has 30 fights in the UFC at 19-11 and was riding a two-fight win streak before losing to Julian Erosa in the first round. He’s a wild fighter who wants to get into a war. He’s always beat up but finds ways to stay in the fight. Does he still have it in him? If he loses this next fight, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him call it quits, but his fights are always exciting, and he’s a good enough veteran that the UFC might keep him around for a bit longer.

Yadier del Valle is just 30 years old and 2-1 in the UFC. He lost to Jordan Leavitt last time out via decision, but won his first two UFC fights via rear-naked choke. He loves to hunt for submissions and is known for jumping for guillotines. He’s never been finished, and his last loss was the first of his career. We’ve seen his grappling ability, but he’s also a good striker and should be able to showcase that in his next fight.

It’s hard to pick against Del Valle in this fight. He’s the younger fighter, has far more paths to victory, and should have success early on. Elkins needs to do what he always does, and that’s make this a war, force Del Valle to fight for positions, and land the better shots. It will be hard to avoid taking damage, but he needs to weather the storm to make this a competitive fight. He has a massive experience advantage, and that’s likely the only asset he has going into this fight.

Carlos Diego Ferreira

1.60

2.40

Billy Quarantillo

Carlos Diego Ferreira has had some wars in the UFC. He’s fought some of the best fighters in the UFC and is 10-7 with the promotion. He’s at the tail end of his career, losing his last two fights. Alexander Hernandez knocked him out last time out, and it’s obvious that the durability and cardio are starting to be a problem. He’s a fantastic grappler, but the striking has come along well over time, and he’s got serious power.

Billy Quarantillo is 6-5 in the UFC and riding a two-fight losing streak. In his defense, his last two fights came against Cub Swanson and Youssef Zalal. He was dominated in both fights, and he’s always struggled with high-volume strikers. At 37 years old, it’s hard to see him improving in the striking defense department, but his fights are always exciting, and he’s always shown incredible toughness.

Both fighters are close to retirement, but it’s obvious the UFC knows both guys are going to bring it for as long as it lasts. While Ferreira could struggle in the later rounds, it’s up to Quarantillo to weather the storm and take over as the fight goes on. Ferreira has the option to get the fight to the ground, and it’s hard to see Quarantillo defending his best submission attempts, but he has a real chance to win this fight in the later rounds.    

Mateusz Gamrot

2.14

1.74

Quillan Salkilld

Mateusz Gamrot is coming off a submission win over Esteban Ribovics after similarly losing to Charles Oliveira. He’s a true UFC veteran at 9-4, and has only lost via decision outside of the Oliveira fight. He’s a fantastic chain wrestler, but he struggles on the feet. His striking has come along well, but his game plan will always be the same. He’ll look for takedowns, use control, and hunt for a submission or a ground-and-pound win.

Quillan Salkilld is on the come-up in a big way. Even though the competition hasn’t been great, he’s 5-0 in the UFC and is now getting his toughest fight to date. His best win so far was last time out when he knocked out Beneil Dariush in the first round. He’s a good striker, has proven grappling prowess, and has defended takedowns well. This will be his toughest UFC fight to date, but it’s about time he got a fighter who presents a real test. His ability to pick his strikes well and look for a finish makes him exciting, and it’s clear the UFC is progressing him in a timely fashion to make sure he’s ready for the next level.

Salkilld has to put his foot on the gas and put the pressure on Gamrot. He usually struggles against opponents who can take the center of the cage and maintain good striking pressure. Gamrot will have to fight through the pressure and hunt for his wrestling takedowns. He may not be able to keep Salkilld down, but he’ll have to keep the chain wrestling going and force him into bad positions. Salkilld is the better striker, and he’s the favorite for a reason, but there’s some recency bias baked into the line. If Gamrot has any success finding takedowns, this line could shift in his favour by the end of the first round.     

UFC Vegas 120 Best Bets

2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units

2026 Record: 58-68-1, +10.545 Units

(Coming Soon…)

UFC Vegas 120 isn’t the most attractive card, but the UFC is doing everything they can to weed out some talent before Dana White’s Contender Series starts back up. Fighters should be hungry to keep their job, which always makes for fun fights. Hopefully the card delivers, and we continue to win bets, but it’s mostly a filler card before we get UFC 330. 

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