UFC Shanghai was another event where we could have had a massive breakthrough, but a few letdown spots forced us to come away with +1.31 Units for another positive card. We now sit at +16.06 Units on the year and have some work to do for the rest of the year.
UFC Paris is an interesting card featuring a main event bout between Dan Hooker and Salahdine Parnasse. The co-main event could be the best fight on the card, with a French-on-French war between Fares Ziam and Axel Sola. Let’s take a look at the rest of the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Paris bets bets.
UFC Paris Main Card Breakdown
Losene Keita
1.27
3.85
Muhammad Naimov
Losene Keita is a highly explosive, pressure-heavy striker who built a formidable reputation across European promotions before making his transition to the UFC stage. Keita pairs clean, technical boxing with rapid combination punching and dynamic footwork. Possessing high-level takedown defense and a devastating ground-and-pound game, he constantly pushes an unrelenting tempo that forces opponents to make mistakes.
Muhammad Naimov is a tough, physically imposing contender. Standing slightly taller than Keita, Naimov utilizes a well-rounded toolkit that mixes long-range striking with a functional grappling threat. He relies heavily on his power, physical durability, and opportunism inside the Octagon, excelling at dragging opponents into gritty exchanges and finding power shots when breaking out of the clinch.
This match-up offers a classic contrast in fighting pace and approach. Keita’s rapid combinations and sharp striking defense give him the upper hand in technical exchanges at range. Naimov’s best path to victory lies in stifling Keita’s momentum with physical grappling, cage control, and high-impact power shots. The betting line suggests this is an uphill battle for Naimov, who needs to rely on a good defense and high-paced grappling.
Morgan Charriere
2.54
1.54
Felipe Lima
Morgan Charrière is a technically sharp, patient power-striker who thrives when dictating the distance. Known for his crisp, fundamental boxing and destructive body kicks, Charrière builds momentum by setting a steady rhythm, establishing a heavy lead jab, and sitting on hard counters when opponents overreach. He possesses high-level turnover power alongside robust submission defense, relying on composure and positional awareness rather than reckless scrambles.
Felipe Lima is a dynamic, hyper-athletic prospect capable of fighting seamlessly across bantamweight and featherweight. Armed with explosive movement and unpredictable striking, Lima mixes creative flying knees and spinning attacks with aggressive, highly effective wrestling transitions. His chaotic style, relentless pace, and ability to snatch high-variance submissions mid-scramble make him a constant threat anywhere the fight goes.
This matchup presents a classic clash between Charrière’s disciplined striking precision and Lima’s explosive unpredictability. Charrière will want to keep the fight centered in the Octagon, utilizing his lead hand and heavy counters to punish Lima’s wide entries. Lima’s primary path to success involves mixing dynamic feints with level changes to force Charrière into scrambling situations.
Daniil Donchenko
1.40
3.05
Punahele Soriano
Daniil Donchenko is a high-volume, dynamic striker who brings exceptional activity and fluid combinations. Donchenko excels at dictating distance with active footwork and heavy kickboxing, utilizing steady output to wear down opponents over three rounds. He relies on clean striking fundamentals and sharp perimeter movement to keep high-pressure fighters at bay while hunting for damaging counters.
Punahele Soriano brings a dangerous blend of explosive left-hand power and Division I collegiate wrestling roots. Soriano thrives in close-quarters chaos where he can land devastating hooks in short exchanges or transition into heavy fence control and takedowns. His style relies on blitzing forward early, using physical imposition to disrupt an opponent’s rhythm and impose his grappling presence.
This matchup sets up as a standard striker-versus-power-grappler setup, hinging entirely on pace and positional control. Donchenko will look to keep the action at a distance, using jab setups and volume to pick apart Soriano as he enters. Soriano’s primary path to victory involves cutting off the Octagon to force clinch work, land heavy early combinations, or take the fight to the mat.
Michael Page
1.60
2.40
Nursulton Ruziboev
Michael Page is an elite, karate-style point-striker renowned for his wide stance, low hands, and hyper-explosive, blitzing attacks. Page controls distance better than almost anyone in combat sports, relying on his lightning-fast lateral movement, feints, and counter-striking accuracy to frustrate opponents into lunging forward. His primary weapons revolve around precise straight rights, flying knees, and elusive footwork that denies opponents static targets.
Nursulton Ruziboev is a massive, highly aggressive finisher who brings a dangerous, unpredictable finishing threat. Possessing exceptional height and reach for the division, Ruziboev pairs destructive knockout power with an opportunistic submission game off his back and in scrambles. He prefers to press the action early, relying on his physical length to land heavy straight shots or drag opponents to the canvas where he can impose his submission skills.
This matchup sets up a classic clash between Page’s sniper-like precision and Ruziboev’s chaotic, high-finishing-rate offense. Page will look to maintain outer-ring control, drawing Ruziboev into over-extending so he can pick him apart with dynamic counters. Ruziboev’s cleanest route to victory involves cutting off the canvas, forcing clinches, and making the fight a dirty, physical brawl.
Fares Ziam
1.67
2.24
Axel Sola
Farès Ziam is a composed, length-based technician who excels at managing range and dictating the tempo of a fight. Ziam makes full use of his long reach and tall frame to snap out precise jab setups, front kicks, and heavy knees from the clinch. While he doesn’t typically push a chaotic pace, his methodical positional control, stifling clinch work, and sharp strike defense allow him to neutralize aggressive opponents over three rounds.
Axel Sola is an athletic, well-rounded prospect who brings a diverse, high-volume kickboxing game alongside a strong amateur grappling foundation. Armed with a southpaw stance, fluid footwork, and a master’s background in sports science, Sola utilizes creative combinations—including slick spinning attacks and sharp elbows—to keep opponents guessing. He combines active striking output with functional submission danger in scrambles, thriving when he can drag fights into high-paced exchanges.
This matchup sets up an intriguing tactical battle between Ziam’s range control and Sola’s aggressive volume. Ziam will aim to establish his long range, keep a slower pace, and wear Sola down through clinch control. Sola’s key to victory relies on using his southpaw angles and higher output to disrupt Ziam’s rhythm and steal close rounds on the scorecards.
Dan Hooker
5.55
1.16
Salahdine Parnasse
Dan Hooker is a battle-tested, ultra-tough veteran who thrives in high-volume striking battles and physical wars. Known for his incredible durability, towering length for the lightweight division, and relentless forward pressure, Hooker uses sharp step-in knees, heavy leg kicks, and precise boxing from the perimeter. While his defense can be porous when trading in the pocket, his vast experience against top-tier world talent and willingness to embrace chaos make him a dangerous threat over five rounds.
Salahdine Parnasse makes his UFC debut as a multi-division champion out of France, long regarded as one of the best fighters outside the UFC. A slick, hyper-athletic southpaw, Parnasse possesses elite footwork, crisp jab setups, and effortless level changes that allow him to mix striking with high-amplitude takedowns. His exceptional distance management, speed advantage, and dynamic scrambles give him the tools to dominate both at range and on the mat without taking unnecessary damage.
This main event features a classic test between a polished elite newcomer and a grizzled Octagon veteran. Hooker’s path to victory lies in making the fight a grueling, high-attrition brawl to test Parnasse’s chin and cardio in deep waters. Parnasse will look to rely on his superior speed, angle-creation, and offensive wrestling control. Given Hooker’s struggles on the mat, it’s hard to see him finding success if Parnasse can get the fight to the ground without issue.
UFC Paris Best Bets
2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
2026 Record: 67-78-1, +16.06 Units
Dias vs. Duclos Ends by KO @ 1.625 (2 Units)
Luis Felipe Dias feels like the right side here, but both guys throw hard. In what is a closely lined fight, it makes sense to get either guy to finish on the feet in what should be a back-and-forth battle with both guys having opportunities with powerful strikes.
Losene Keita to Finish @ 1.90 (1.5 Units)
Keita is a powerful striker who should be able to land the much more powerful strikes. He may need to avoid takedown attempts, but he’s a phenomenal athlete with the right skill set to find the chin at some point in the fight.
Salahdine Parnasse to Finish / Oumar Sy to Win @ 1.86
Parnasse will make his long-anticipated UFC debut, and he has a favourable matchup against Hooker. He’ll be the more technical fighter, will feed the body, and threaten the finishing blow well before the fifth round.
Oumar Sy is in a massive spot to prove himself, is fighting at home, and is taking on a fighter who doesn’t push a crazy pace and won’t have the same grappling edge as past opponents. He should make the most of this chance.
Mario Pinto to KO in Round 1 or 2 @ 2.25
Mario Pinto has been a slow starter, and Ryan Spann is a solid veteran. The difference here is the power, footwork, and better boxing on the Pinto side. Unless Spann gets this fight to the ground right away, Pinto will have every chance with the better combinations and power edge.
Nathaniel Wood / Daniil Donchenko / Kurtis Campbell Parlay @ 2.37
Nathaniel Wood looked good last time out. While he’s taking on a solid power striker on short notice, he’s a far too technical test for the average UFC newcomer.
Daniil Donchenko needs to avoid the ground against Punahele Soriano, and if he does, he’s going to have a massive power edge on the feet. His combinations should be the biggest threat.
Kurtis Campbell has a lot to prove after his last loss, and Trevor Peek is making his return after a long layoff. It’ll be tough to finish on the feet, but a submission or dominant decision is in the cards.
UFC Paris features plenty of French talent, including a massive debut for Parnasse and a Fight of the Night candidate between Ziam and Sola. While the prelims leave much to be desired, there are solid matchups across the board that should make for exciting fights.
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