Man, we could have cleaned up at UFC 328. Sean Brady was in mount for almost the whole fight, but couldn’t finish. Ateba Gautier decided to finish in the second round instead of the first. The worst one of all, we were one fight away from hitting our massive 9.33 parlay, but Joshua Van proved to be a beast in the later rounds. If you were in on the parlay, hopefully you took some hedges with Van moneyline to limit the blow. Despite missing out on a multi-unit swing at UFC 328, we still came away with +1.25 Units and now sit at -6.245 Units for the year.
The good news is we’re starting to find our stride with two winning weeks in a row, and we now head back to the UFC Apex for UFC Vegas 117. Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa headline the card, while Dooho Choi and Daniel Santos throw down in the co-main event. While this is far from UFC 328 in terms of talent, some fun matchups could turn into absolute wars. Let’s take a look at the UFC Vegas 117 main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our best bets.
UFC Vegas 117 Main Card Breakdown
Khaos Williams
1.80
2.05
Nikolay Veretennikov
Khaos Williams has been embracing his real estate career, and his UFC career has taken a bit of a backseat. His last win was in 2024 against Carlston Harris, and he’s only fought twice since. He’s lost both fights, losing via decision last time out and via submission before that. Despite never winning three fights in a row in the UFC, he showed potential as a big time finisher earlier in his career. Has his lost that edge? Maybe, but it also could just be the increase in competition. The fighters he was able to finish are known to lack durability, and now he needs to work much harder to find those finishing blows.
Nikolay Veretennikov is 2-3 in the UFC, but his losses are fairly respectable. He lost a split decision to Danny Barlow, but then lost two grappling clinics to Austin Vanderford and Punahele Soriano. He came back strong last time out against Niko Price, but Price was on the cusp of retirement and his durability is highly questionable. The more impressive win was the split decision against Francisco Prado. He was able to weather some major blows and looked like the smarter grappler. He avoided dominant spots and try to keep the fight competitive.
This is an interesting fight in terms of who wants it more. If Williams was a great grappler, he would be the more dangerous fighter here with a solid combination of grappling and power. However, Veretennikov has done much better against strikers in the UFC and could be a solid candidate to pull off the upset. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this line close even closer given WIlliams’ one dimensional style and Veretennikov’s ability to be a much better stand up fighter than grappler.
Timothy Cuamba
2.30
1.64
Benardo Sopaj
Timothy Cuamba is tough as nails. He’s 2-2 in the UFC, losing to Lucas Almeida and Bolaji Oki via decisions, but coming off two-straight wins. He’s never been finished on the feet and has been submitted once. Against Chang Ho Lee in his last fight, he took some big shots but was still able to do enough to secure the victory. The biggest problem with his approach is that he’s willing to take a beating to give one. Against higher-level guys, that could be what loses him close fights. He has a 44% striking accuracy and maintains a -0.81, which will be tested in his next fight.
Benardo Sopaj is only 1-1 in the UFC, but he’s looked good in both fights. Before taking a massive knee in the third round, he was doing really well against Vinicius Oliveira. He came back strong in his second UFC fight against Ricky Turcios, but that was also a massive drop in competition. He’s a well-rounded fighter with good takedowns, and his 56% striking accuracy stands out in this fight.
Cuamba will have a five-inch reach advantage, but it will come down to how well he can use his footwork to fight on the outside and land the bigger shots. Sopaj should be able to land the bigger shots, and he’ll also have the takedowns in his back pocket to force Cuamba into bad spots. While there’s a solid size difference in favour of Cuamba, his defense is still a major question against Sopaj. This should be a fairly close fight, but Sopaj has looked more dangerous in his fights, and his ability to land the bigger shots against a defensive-lacking fighter makes him the right side.
Malcolm Wellmaker
1.37
3.20
Juan Diaz
Malcolm Wellmaker got a rude awakening against Ethyn Ewing. While he was riding the highest of highs after his Dana White Contender Series win and two first round knockouts in the UFC, Ewing was the age-old underdog story. He was the better striker, had Wellmaker on his backfoot, and was constantly pushing a better pace.
The loss will continue to age well as Ewing takes on better competition, but after Wellmaker’s first two fights, it was a massive step up. He’s still a good striker with power, but he taking that fight on short notice worked against him. He’s young in terms of MMA years and needs to continue developing. The power is there, he’s a good counter puncher, and he will continue to grow with more experience.
Juan Diaz is coming off his own DWCS win, and he’s 15-1-1 so far. His only loss was a decision back in 2021, but he’s riding a eight-fight win streak which includes winning and defending the Lux Fight League title twice. He doesn’t throw with the most volume, but he lands well and has a sneaky grappling game. His spinning elbow finish on DWCS was a massive claim to fame, and he’ll be looking to build on that in his UFC debut.
After losing to Ewing, Wellmaker won’t be overrated in this spot. Even though he’s older, Diaz has the experience edge. The big difference here is the volume on the feet. Diaz does have a path to victory, but if Wellmaker can defend the takedowns, it will be an uphill battle. Wellmaker won’t be the type to walk forward aimlessly, which will force Diaz to find opportunities on the feet to land big strikes. In terms of most likely scenarios, Wellmaker counter-punching his way to a decision seems probable, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Diaz turn this into a fight.
Doo Ho Choi
2.42
1.58
Daniel Santos
Doo Ho Choi has always been a fan favorite. While he had to stepped away from MMA for his miltiary obligations back home, he’s come back strong after ending his first stint on a three-fight losing streak. He went on a run of five-straight performance bonuses before leaving, and is now 2-0-1 since returning in 2023. He’s now 35 after a four-year layoff, but he’s looked good against lesser competition. He takes plenty of damage, packs serious power, and is always looking for the highlight reel finish.
Daniel Santos is getting a massive opportunity here. Despite being a big favorite, he has yet to face anyone with the same resume as Choi. He’s 4-1 in the UFC since 2022, but had a solid 2025. He went 2-0 and finished Joo Sang Yoo last October. He’s never been finished, pushes a crazy pace, looks to be entering his prime at the perfect time. Training with Charles Oliveira and the Chute Boxe camp, they all have a similar style of solid boxing and good durability.
This line still seems disrespectful. Is it possible Santos lands the big blow? Definitely. Santos is the more durable fighter, but Choi is the more technically sound. While Choi maintains a 56% striking accuracy and defense, Santons comes in at 40% accuracy and 51% defense. This will be a war for as long as it lasts, but the longer the fight goes, there’s something to be said for Choi’s late heroics. If he’s able to weather the storm and land good body shots to slow Santos down, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him take over the second half of the fight or even find a late finish.
Arnold Allen
1.60
2.40
Melquizael Costa
Arnold Allen is a perennial contender. He’s lost just three times in the last 12 years, and they’ve all been against solid competition. He got out-volumed by Max Holloway, out-grappled by Movsar Evloev, and out-worked by Jean Silva in the last two rounds of their fight. While he isn’t the most exciting fighter, he’s well-rounded and finds ways to win. He’s 11-3 in the UFC and has never been finished in his career. He’s at a point in his career now where he needs to take his overall game to the next level, and plan accordingly on a fight-to-fight basis. He comes from a good camp in Tristar, and this is their opportunity to stop a surging contender.
Melquizael Costa is on an absolute tear. After some growing pains in 2023, Costa has ripped off six-straight wins. He’s finished four of those wins, including the last two in the first round. Not only did he head kick Morgan Charriere, but he pulled off an inside spinning back kick against Dan Ige, someone who is known for his durability. Known mostly for his grappling, Costa is turning into a scary striker with solid timing. Another Chute Boxe product, it’s obvious the time in the gym is paying off.
This fight will be the perfect test for Costa. Allen is defensively sound on the feet and has been able to defend any danger on the ground despite being taken down fairly often. Allen also has more main events under his belt, which should make him primed to go a full five rounds. Costa’s output could back fire in the later rounds if he can’t find the finish, and his 58% takedown defense is always a concern. The good thing about him is despite his lack of wrestling, his grappling is so good that he’s able to find reversals or get back to his feet. This is a highly-technical battle, and while Allen deserves to be the favorite, this is a solid gatekeeper against potential contender fight where the MMA chessmatch will be elite.
UFC Vegas 117 Best Bets
- 2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
- 2026 Record: 29-50, -6.245 Units
(Coming soon…)
UFC Vegas 117 is far from the same action we saw last weekend at UFC 328, but there are some exciting matchups. Several fighters need to prove they belong, while others are always willing to put on a show. There are some solid contenders in the main event, while the rest of the card should have enough action to keep fans happy heading into the break next weekend.
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