While the overall results still need work, we’re on a three-card winning streak and are slowly chipping away at our rough start. We’re up +4.425 Units on the last three cards, and now sit at -5.495 so far this year. We’re picking our spots better, with some luck finally going our way, and now we turn to UFC Macau to keep the win streak going.
The UFC is returning to China for UFC Macau, and there’s plenty of local talent on display. While the card is at a weird time for most people, it should still be an exciting card. In the main event, Song Yadong will take on Deiveson Figueiredo in what should be an elite fight. In the co-main event, Zhang Mingyang hopes to bring home the win against Alonzo Menifield. With a six-fight main card, let’s take a look at all the fights, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our best bets for UFC Macau.
UFC Macau Main Card Breakdown
Alex Perez
1.70
2.20
Sumudaerji
Alex Perez is coming off a much-needed win. He is 1-3-1 since 2023 before knocking out Charles Johnson, and the most glaring problem is that he only fought five times between 2023 and 2025. He’s been plagued with injuries over the course of his career, fighting just eight times since 2020. While he did miss weight, and many questions if he tried, he landed a nice left hook to get back on track. This will be his first time fighting out of the USA, and he’s got a tough task at hand.
Sumudaerji has also struggled with injuries. Despite signing with the UFC in 2019, Sumudaerji has fought only 10 times, going 6-4 in that span. The good news is he’s 30 years old and riding a three-fight win streak. His strength of schedule isn’t great, but his striking looks crisp, and he’s been able to avoid grappling. In the past, he’s struggled with higher-level grapplers, but he was able to avoid the ground with Jesus Aguilar. A big difference maker in that fight is Sumudaerji’s range. He’s long, uses his reach well, and can stand on the outside while landing solid combinations
The length is Sumudaerji’s biggest weapon against Perez. The jab and footwork will determine how well he can keep the fight at range and avoid Perez’s solid boxing and grappling. Sumudaerji also has some sneaky power, and it would be interesting to see if he can catch Perez off guard. Without the questionable durability issues, Perez is the more complete and experienced fighter, but Sumudaerji does have the right skill set to keep Perez at bay and land the better shots.
Jake Matthews
1.30
3.60
Carlston Harris
It’s incredible to think Jake Matthews is still only 31 years old, but is 15-8 in the UFC. He’s been in the UFC for a long time and has taken on a solid mix of talent. He’s 4-2 in his last six, and his only losses are Michael Morales via decision and, most recently, Neil Magny in a very questionable fight. It looked like Matthews had the fight won late in the first round, but the second round continued. His grappling is his claim to fame, but his boxing is improving. He’s actually been submitted quite a bit in the past, which could be a problem in his next fight.
Carlson Harris is taking this fight on short notice, and he hasn’t fought since January 2025. He’s fought just twice since 2023, and he’s 0-2 with two finishes via knockout. His best win was the Jeremiah Wells third-round submission after he weathered the heavy storm and pulled off the comeback. Good strikers with strong defensive grappling and wrestling have been able to find success against him, but Harris has had his moments on the feet and on the ground. Durability is also a concern. Harris is 38 with 26 pro fights, and there’s no question he’s on the tail end of his career.
This should be a Jake Matthews smash spot, but he always finds a way to put himself in bad positions. For how good his grappling is, he still gets caught in bad. Matthews is by far the better striker here, and he should be able to work from the outside and wait for his best shots. Harris has to get this fight to the ground. His best chance is a submission win, and Matthews can get caught. In what should be a grappler versus striker matchup, it wouldn’t be surprising for Matthews to try to go for a takedown or two. This one will be sweaty.
Kai Asakura
1.34
3.35
Cameron Smotherman
Kai Asakura came into the UFC as a highly-touted star from Japan, but he’s 0-2 after losing his debut to Alexandre Pantoja and his last fight to Tim Elliot. That’s a massive step up in competition, and it was too much, too fast. In RIZIN, he was known for his knockout power, and he was 13-3 with the promotion. While he hasn’t realised similar success in the UFC, he needs to be eased in. Fighting a champion and a regular contender is a tough back-to-back, but he should be getting much more favourable spots in his upcoming fights.
Cameron Smotherman will always be remembered for fainting at the weigh-ins before his last fight. His fight was cancelled, and now he’s back in Macau. He went 0-2 in 2025, after starting his UFC career with a win against Jake Hadley in 2024. He relies on his striking, landing 4.07 strikes per minute, and defends at a 58% clip.
The UFC are desperate to get Kai Asakura a win after taking on a big contract. They gradually lowered his level of competition to see where he stands. This is the fight where you expect a back-and-forth striking exchange, with Asakura landing the more powerful shots while looking for a finish. Smotherman has never been submitted, but his last two losses were against good wrestlers who avoided his striking game altogether. It will be interesting to see if Asakura chooses to wrestle, as he could have some sneaky success controlling position.
Sergei Pavlovich
1.16
5.40
Tallison Teixeira
Sergei Pavlovich is one of the best heavyweights in the world. He’s 20-3 overall, and his only three losses are Alistair Overeem (2018), Tom Aspinall (2023, and Alexander Volkov (2024). He won both his fights in 2025 via decision, and his most recent win over Waldo Cortes-Acosta is aging well. He’s a solid boxer with impressive power, and can use his footwork against most heavyweights to land the better shots. We’ve seen him struggle with the best, but he’s proven to be a top-five heavyweight in the UFC.
Tallison Teixeira has been handed some favourable fights so far in his UFC career. He beat Justin Tafa in his UFC debut after winning on Dana White’s Contender Series, lost to Derrick Lewis in his second fight, and then put on an uninspired performance against Tai Tuivasa. The biggest takeaway from that fight was that he struggled to maintain a good pace and wasn’t able to use his length to keep Tuivasa at bay. He’s an accurate striker at 64%, but he takes big shots and maintains just a 42% striking defense. We’ve seen him go to his wrestling to avoid some bad spots, but his headhunting is what got him some hype early in his UFC career.
This is a massive step up in competition for Teixeira. Anytime Pavlovich has been tested with an up-and-coming heavyweight, he’s come out on top. The interesting thing about this fight is that Teixeira is used to having a massive reach advantage over his opponents, and despite his four-inch height advantage, Pavlovich is actually listed with the longer reach by a single inch. This will come down to Teixeira’s cardio and ability to use his wrestling. Pavlovich should have no problem being in a striking war, should have the power advantage, and the better cardio. We’ve seen him go the distance in several fights, while Teixeira has looked completely gassed. Recent bias could be overshadowing this one, but it’s hard to see Pavlovich losing a striking battle to Teixeira.
Zhang Mingyang
1.40
3.05
Alonzo Menifield
Zhang Mingyang is going to be a massive fan favourite this weekend. He hasn’t fought since August 2025 when he suffered his first UFC loss to Johnny Walker. He was 3-0 before that with three first-round finishes. There was plenty of hype going into his fight with Walker, but it was clear that all it took was weathering the first-round storm and countering with some big shots. Mingyang struggled to maintain a similar pace in the second round and was beaten by better footwork and accurate shots. In 26 fights, Mingyang has been to a decision only once, which is a big reason the UFC has high hopes for a kill-or-be-killed fighter like him. The power is real; he fights long, but the striking defense (43%) is a glaring hole in his game.
Alonzo Menifield is getting a co-main event spot this time around, and there’s something to be said about that. He’s now been in the UFC for seven years, is 10-6-1 with the promotion, and just broke his two-fight winning streak by losing to Volkan Oezdemir via first-round knockout. While Menifield has struggled with some higher-level talent, he tends to prove he belongs in the UFC against lesser competition. His cardio has improved, his decision-making is getting better with experience, and he needs an exciting win to stay in the UFC’s good graces.
There’s a reason the UFC booked this as a co-main event; they expect violence. Mingyang is a first-round fighter who goes for blood out of the gate. He does need to learn to pace himself as he moves up the UFC ladder, but this could be fireworks right away. The path to victory for Menifield is pretty clear, weather the early storm and fight a more technical fight as Mingyang slows down. If his cardio has improved, we could be looking at another exciting addition to the division after a minor setback.
Song Yadong
1.16
5.40
Deiveson Figueiredo
Song Yadong is destined to sit atop the UFC bantamweight division, but how close will he get to the title? His last three losses are to Sean O’Malley, Petr Yan, and Cory Sandhagen. He’s 3-3 between those fights, scoring wins against lesser competition. Yadong is still just 28 years old with plenty of experience under his belt, and this could be another opportunity for him to prove he belongs at the top of the division. He’s tough, has solid cardio, and loves to get into a fire-fight.
Deiveson Figueiredo also entered the top echelon of the division after winning his first three fights at bantamweight. He lost to Yan, Sandhagen, and Umar Nurmagomedov within his last four fights, but beat Montel Jackson via split decision. Figueiredo always had power at flyweight, but now he’s coming into his own as a well-rounded fighter who uses his wrestling and grappling to complement his striking. While it hasn’t worked well against the division’s best, he’s proven the jump to bantamweight was the best idea, and he now has to prove he can make the weight again.
Yadong deserves to be a massive favourite here, but his 73% takedown defense will be tested. He averages less than one takedown per 15 mins, but Figueiredo averages 1.61. It’s been a much better gameplan for him against bigger fighters and his 49% striking defense shows it’s far too easy to hit him. Yadong will want to keep this fight on the feet, land the better shots, and push the pace. He’s the better defensive striker and should be able to land at a much higher clip.
UFC Macau Best Bets
2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
2026 Record: 31-52, -5.495 Units
(Coming soon…)
UFC Macau is a solid mix of exciting fighters and dark horse contenders. With massive performances, some of the fighters have a massive opportunity to shoot up the rankings. Not to mention, the Chinese crowd should create a fun atmosphere with plenty of home-grown talent on the card. Check your local listings for the exact start time for UFC Macau.
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