Battle in Baku: The UFC Returns to Azerbaijan

UFC Vegas 119 should have been MASSIVE.

Michael Aswell took over his fight in the third, but he lost a decision after starting slow. There was an argument for giving him one of the rounds, but the judges didn’t see it that way. There were so many fantastic spots we should have attacked there, but we’ll take a positive night and look to the next card to cut the deficit.

The UFC heads back to Azerbaijan for UFC Baku. Rafael Fiziev gets to headline a card in his home country against Mexican standout Manuel Torres. In the co-main event Shara Magomedov returns to the cage against a faltering Michel Pereira. We should have some solid betting spots on this one, so let’s take a look at the main card and, as always, check back later in the week for our UFC Baku best bets.

UFC Baku Main Card Breakdown

Abus Magomedov

1.74

2.14

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Abus Magomedov has fought some tough competition with just seven fights in the UFC. He’s 4-3 in the UFC, but his three losses are to Sean Strickland, Caio Borralho, and Joe Pyfer last time out. The biggest issue with him is he slows down and the volume is low. He’ll rely heavily on winning minutes and does his best work against fighters who also fight with low volume and have bad cardio.

Michal Oleksiejcuk is a one-trick pony, but that trick is fun to watch. He was in an exciting back-and-forth with Marc-Andre Barriault last time out, and came away with a close decision win. He was a heavy favorite, but he was able to take plenty of damage and win the fight on volume and pressure. He’s a solid boxer with volume and power, but against fighters who can match the volume or get him down, he struggles. 

This fight will be decided on only a few things. Magomedov’s best chance is to get Oleksiejcuk to the ground and force him to grapple. If you can tire him out, the power factor should decrease, and the fight could be closer on the feet. Oleksiejcuk should do everything he can to keep the fight standing, and put it on Magomedov from the opening bell. The volume is his best path to victory, and whether it’s a one-punch knockout shot, or a volume-based finish, Oleksiejcuk does have a chance to pull off the upset.        

Ikram Alisekerov

1.32

3.45

Bruno Ferreira

Ikram Aliskerov is a solid UFC talent at 33 years old. He’s 17-2 overall and 4-1 in the UFC. His only career losses are against Khamzat Chimaev outside of the UFC, and Robert Whittaker in his UFC debut back in 2024. He’s 2-0 since then, with a finish over Andre Muniz and a decision win over Jun Yong Park last time out. He’s well-rounded and has solid power, but his ability to wrestle and hunt for submissions makes him a threat everywhere.

Bruno Ferreira is always in fun fights, even if it’s at his expense. He lost a rematch to Gregory Rodrigues via knockout in less than a minute last time out, but was riding a four-fight win streak before that. He’s put together a 6-3 UFC record so far, and five of his wins are via finish. The biggest question with him is will he be able to go a strong three rounds if he can’t find a finish. His lone decision win was because he missed weight, and all of his losses are via finish. 

Aliskerov has a solid advantage here in terms of cardio. If this turns into a high-paced fight with big striking and grappling exchanges, Ferreira will tire early. Aliskerov will need to weather the storm, avoid the sneaky submissions, and force Ferreira into exhausting spots. Ferreira’s best path to victory is making this a dog fight in the first round and finding ways to finish.     

Asu Almabayev

1.38

3.10

Charles Johnson

Asu Almabayev’s only UFC loss against Manel Kape is aging well. Kape should be the next title contender if Alexandre Pantoja doesn’t get his rematch, and Almabayev has recovered well since then. He’s 6-1 in the UFC and riding a two fight win streak which includes a submission win over Alex Perez last time out. He’s a solid striker with good kicks, can employ a solid grappling game if he needs to, and his overall durability should be a positive in this fight. He’ll be fighting fairly close to home, and this will be a solid opportunity against a ranked fighter.

Charles Johnson isn’t happy with the new UFC ranks, and he has a chance to prove why he belongs higher on the list. He’s such a tough puzzle to crack because you just don’t know which version you’re going to get. He’s the kind of guy to finish the champion Joshua Van, but lose to Perez via knockout. Last time out, he won a very close fight against Bruno Silva, which could have gone either way, and he’s now 8-6 in the UFC. He’s hard to submit, but can spend plenty of time on his back, and he struggles to keep his foot on the gas.

If Johnson can keep the pace going and be the higher volume striker, he can make this fight close. The glaring difference is Almabayev’s wrestling, but if Johnson defends the takedowns, this could really go either way. Johnson fights well at range, will put the pressure on when he needs to, and finds ways to steal minutes. Almabayev will focus heavily on closing the distance and do his damage in close. To maintain boxing range with the threat of takedowns is by far his best path to victory. With Johnson’s inconsistencies, travel time,  and 69% takedown defense, it’s hard to go against Almabayev in this one.

Nazim Sadykhov

1.40

3.00

Matheus Camilo

Nazim Sadykhov is one of those exciting fighters that the die-hards love. He’s skilled, goes for the kill, but the chin is starting to look questionable. He suffered his first loss since 2018 last time out against Fares Ziam, where he was knocked out in the second round. He’s still 4-1-1 in the UFC and looked incredible leading up to that fight. While his fights can be competitive, his heart and ability to come back is elite. He has solid kickboxing, comes in with power, and trains with Ray Longo which means his grappling should be great as well. 

Matheus Camilo is young at just 25 years old, but he’s getting a massive opportunity in the UFC. He’s never been knocked out, is 10-3 overall, and is 1-1 in the UFC. He lost his UFC debut to Gabe Green via submission, but followed that up with a decision win over Viacheslav Borshchev. The most consistent factor in that fight was his inability to keep the same pace as the first round. He was dangerous early, but he gradually lost steam.

This fight seems too perfect for Sadykhov. While Camilo has shown hunger early on, his cardio takes a massive hit, and his heart continues to go down with it. Sadykhov is the exact opposite. In fights where he’s losing, he finds a way to take over and even find a finish. That’s a major difference in this fight, but Camilo still has the recipe for an early finish if he can land big on Sadykhov. The durability will always be a question now, and Camilo can take full advantage of that. While Camilo has a chance early on to find the finish, Sadykhov’s ability to weather the storm coupled with Camilo’s cardio issues makes this a prime spot for a Sadykhov comeback fight.         

Shara Magomedov 

1.28

3.80

Michel Pereira

Michel Pereira is one of the more frustrating fighters to watch at this point of his career. Is he throwing fights on purpose? There’s definitely  an argument for it. He hasn’t had the same fire that we saw earlier in his UFC career, and after losing three in a row to tougher competition, he looks done. Kyle Daukaus was able to finish him in under a minute, but he followed that up with a split decision win over Zach Reese. He’s basically a one-and-done fighter in terms of his action in the  first round, but other than that, it seems like he’s on the tail end of his career.

Shara Magomedov 16-1 overall and 5-1 in the UFC. Yes, he’s had favourable matchups in his UFC come up, but his loss to Michael Page was a humbling experience. Page was able to avoid all the crazy kicking combos and high pace, and win a technical kickboxing fight. Outside of that, Magomedov has been fairly dominant, but his last fight was a decision win over Barriault. He still has a long way to climb before getting top five recognition, but his style is everything the UFC loves and he needs to put it all together as he climbs the ranks.

This seems like another showcase fight for Magomedov. It’s an opponent who has struggled with powerful strikers recently, and he should be able to force Pereira into bad spots where he lands heavy kicks and stiff combos. Pereira will need to grapple, be the more technical fighter, and look to steal points as the rounds go on. It will be too tough to find a finish here, and his best chance is to use his all-around skill to make it competitive and neutralize the kicks on the feet.

Rafael Fiziev

1.89

1.92

Manuel Torres

Rafael Fiziev isn’t the same fighter we saw early in his career, but he’s still a high-level striker who prefers to take a technical approach. He’s coming off a tough loss to Mauricio Ruffy after a solid win over Ignacio Bahamondes, but he’s 1-4 in his last five UFC fights. After suffering a leg injury against Mateusz Gamrot, he hasn’t been the same. He fought Justin Gaethje before and after that fight, and it was a far more competitive fight before he suffered the injury. While the tools are still there, we’re not seeing the same Fiziev anymore.

Manuel Torres is more of a powerful striker who will throw caution to the wind if he sees a chance to finish the fight. Even though Bahamondes knocked him out two fights ago, he’s still 5-1 in the UFC and won his last two fights against Grant Dawson and Drew Dober in less than three minutes. The power is there, but he hasn’t seen a second round much in his career. The cardio questions will be massive going into his first main event.

Fiziev should have an advantage as the fight goes into the championship rounds, but before that, Torres will be hunting for a highlight-reel finish. Fiziev is coming off a knockout loss where he wasn’t able to get the timing right and was overwhelmed by Ruffy’s precision and power. Torres has to replicate the same gameplan. He needs to fire early, and look for ways to end the fight in the first two rounds. Given his lack of experience in later rounds, and Fiziev’s ability to download information and make it more competitive later, Torres’ best chance will be early. If Fiziev can weather the storm, he should be able to turn this into a technical showcase with him being the more experienced fighter.

UFC Vegas Baku Best Bets

2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units

2026 Record: 36-62-1, -7.845 Units

(Coming soon…)

UFC Baku might not have the big names, but the matchups are fantastic. With a solid mix of exciting fighters and hungry up-and-comers, there should be plenty of action across the board, and some names could be climbing the new UFC ranks when it’s all said and done.  

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