UFC Macau should have been a much bigger hit for us, especially for leaving some leans on the table. Both Angela Hill and Alonzo Menifield pulled off victories that would have been solid hits for us, and Luis Dias did finish his fight, but he went for the knockout instead of the submission. We still come away with +1.1 Units after hitting our parlay, and we now look towards UFC Vegas 118.
UFC Vegas 118 is not your average UFC Apex card. In terms of talent, it’s one of the better cards we’ve seen in the smaller cage. With a healthy dose of elite veterans and up-and-coming fighters, UFC Vegas 118 should be a breath of fresh air when it comes to putting on exciting cards at the UFC Apex. Let’s take a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Vegas 118 best bets.
UFC Vegas 118 Main Card Breakdown
Iwo Baraniewski
1.26
4.00
Junior Tafa
Iwo Baraniewski is becoming a fan favorite after three exciting fights, including his Dana White Contender Series win. His fight against Ibo Aslan is widely considered one of the best fights of 2025, and he just finished Austen Lane in March. He’s now riding an eight-fight first-round finish win streak with two UFC performance bonuses. He’s just 27 years old, but the power, durability, and sneaky submission skills are for real. He’s looking like the next big prospect at light heavyweight.
Iwo vs. Ibo – CRAZIEST 2 MINUTES EVER: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ob1W3n-m7s
Junior Tafa is one of the luckiest fighters in the UFC right now. They’re desperate for finishers, and Tafa, on a good day, has the power to pull off highlight reel finishes. The problem with him is that he’s not a complete fighter, and good grapplers have had a field day against him. His last three losses are via submission, but his only three UFC wins are via knockout. He won last month against Kevin Christian in the first round, which should buy him some time in the UFC.
Tafa will have his work cut out for him in this one. Not only is Baraniewski the better grappler, but his first-round output is insane. In three fights, he has landed 15.77 strikes per min, eaten 14.01, and landed at a 70% clip. This is a classic weathering-the-storm situation for Tafa, because he does have the power to turn things around if the fight stays standing. Neither fighter has gone for a takedown in the UFC, and this has all the makings of a back-and-forth brawl till one guy goes to sleep. Based on Baraniewski being the more complete fighter, and never losing a fight, the odds make sense, and he should have the edge wherever the fight takes place.
Bryce Mitchell
1.67
2.24
Santiago Luna
Bryce Mitchell is trying his luck at bantamweight after a tough loss to Jean Silva last year. He’s 1-0 so far after beating Said Nurmagomedov, but we haven’t seen him back in the cage since last July. His grappling has always been his claim to fame, but he’s had to find ways to improve his striking as he takes on new challenges. Against Nurmagomedov, he was able to get by on landing three takedowns for nine minutes of control time, while landing just 13 significant strikes all fight. Eight of those strikes came in the clinch, which means Mitchell’s gameplan is all but certain: he wants to make it dirty and find ways to get it to the ground.
Santiago Luna is a fresh face in the UFC, but he’s making the most of his opportunities. He knocked out Quang Le in his UFC debut in under three minutes, then beat Angel Pacheco in a surprising decision. Pacheco is tough, but Luna landed a whopping 131 significant strikes and landed five takedowns. He’s still just 21 years old, but the skills are there, and he looks like a well-rounded fighter despite his age.
This fight comes down to Mitchell landing takedowns. If he can’t, Luna should have the advantage on the feet simply based on volume. He lands 8.20 strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.82. He maintains a 71% striking defense early in his UFC career, while Mitchell comes in with just 2.27 strikes landed per minute. Luna’s wrestling could be good enough to keep the fight standing, but he’ll need to be good for three rounds. Mitchell will be relentless in trying to get the fight to the ground, and it’s his best path to victory. Despite the underdog price tag, it would not be surprising to see Luna defend the takedowns and outwork Mitchell on the feet.
Fares Ziam
1.30
3.60
Tom Nolan
Fares Ziam is slowly turning into a real contender. His gameplans are sound, his skills are developing, and he’s looking like a real threat in the lightweight division. He’s 8-2 in the UFC after losing his debut to Don Madge in 2019 and getting submitted by Terrance McKinney in 2022. Since then, he’s 6-0 with two nasty finishes over Matt Frevola and Nazim Sadykhov. The biggest difference in his skill set is the wrestling. He showed off his new abilities against Mike Davis. He’s a French kickboxer who has become a well-rounded fighter who can win fights in several different ways.
Tom Nolan is in a similar boat. After getting knocked out by Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut, he has ripped off four straight wins and finished his last fight via submission against Charlie Campbell. He won a performance bonus in that one and is starting to look like the prospect everyone thought he would be. The biggest concern with his game is the damage he sustains on the feet. He has a horrid 48% striking defense and eats 4.73 strikes per minute.
Ziam comes into this fight as a massive favorite, and it makes sense. He is the much better technical striker, with a solid kicking game, and maintains an elite 65% striking defense. In terms of paths to victory, Nolan’s best chance would likely be getting top control and finding ways to do damage. Ziam has never been knocked out but has been submitted three times. Getting the fight to the ground opens the door to control time, ground and pound, and submission attempts if Nolan can get it there. Outside of that, Ziam should have a massive advantage on the feet, and it would be surprising to see him find the knockout blow.
Brendan Allen
1.45
2.80
Edmen Shahbazyan
Brendan Allen has been a fringe contender for a long time. He’s been involved in number one contender fights, but has fallen one fight short of a title shot. After ripping off seven straight wins, he lost to Nassourdine Imavov and Anthony Hernandez, but followed that up with wins over Marvin Vettori and Reinier de Ridder. His striking has been improving, and his grappling is elite. In his recent losses, he lost to an elite striker and an elite wrestler. They were just brutal matchups for him, and his all-around style was not good enough to win. He’s 14-4 in the UFC and is now on another run to see if he can get to a UFC title shot.
After getting thrown to the wolves early in his UFC career, Edmen Shahbazyan has slowly put together a much more well-rounded style. He’s able to pace himself better, wait for his opportunities, and defend the takedowns when necessary. After a surprising submission loss to Gerald Meerschaert, Shahbazyan has ripped off three straight wins. The problem with those wins is they’re lower-level UFC competition, and now he’s stepping back into the next level of UFC-caliber fighters, and it will be the perfect test to see how much he’s improved over the years.
This is a tough fight for Shahbazyan. Not only is Allen durable, but he can be relentless with his pressure and will land takedowns if necessary. There’s no reason for him to keep the fight standing here, and he has a massive grappling advantage if he can get the fight to the ground. Shahbazyan’s takedown defense will be tested here. Allen should come in with a good gameplan, and it should involve looking for takedowns when the opportunities arise. If the fight stays standing, Shahbazyan could have early success. The big problem here is, even if the fight stays standing, Shahbazyan may not have the cardio to go a full three rounds with a fighter like Allen.
Gabriel Bonfim
2.02
1.81
Belal Muhammad
It’s a little crazy to think that Gabriel Bonfim’s only career loss is to Nicolas Dalby. He was knocked out back in 2023, but has gone on a four-fight win streak ever since. His biggest career win was a split decision over Stephen Thompson, but he followed that up with a highlight reel knockout over Randy Brown. He’s 6-1 in the UFC, 19-1 overall, and is looking like a true contender in the welterweight division. Known primarily for his submission skills, his power is coming along well, and his cardio has improved with every fight. At just 28 years old, Bonfim is looking like a real contender to be a perennial top 15 fighter throughout his UFC career.
Despite never recording a knockdown and taking plenty of criticism for his lack of finishing ability, Belal Muhammad is an elite fighter everywhere. He’s in contention for the best cardio in the UFC, and his ability to mix in his pressure wrestling and boxing has made him a top contender for a long time. For the first time in his career, Muhammad is coming off two straight losses, first for the title against Jack Della Maddalena, then Ian Garry in his most recent fight. Those were two examples where Della Maddalena’s boxing was superior, and Garry’s length and kickboxing proved to be too much.
This is an interesting main event. Could it be a passing of the guard fight, or a dose of reality for a true contender? Muhammad’s durability will be his greatest strength in this fight, and his cardio over five rounds could be the deciding factor. The odds are close, primarily due to Muhammad’s recent track record and Bonfim’s growth. In terms of pure MMA skills, Muhammad seems like the total package in terms of defensive skills and ability to go a hard five rounds. Bonfim needs to be ready to deal with the pressure, counter when necessary, and avoid the wrestling. Muhammad has never been submitted, which could be another major factor. Outside of a finish or simply outworking Muhammad over fight rounds, it’s hard to see a true path to victory for Bonfim.
UFC Vegas 118 Best Bets
2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
2026 Record: 33-54-1, -4.395 Units
(Coming soon…)
UFC Vegas 118 is one of the better cards we’ve gotten at the UFC Apex. With several veterans and bright prospects in action, UFC Vegas 118 should deliver across the board. The main card features a solid mix of elite talent along with fringe contenders looking to make a splash. The prelims also feature several exciting fighters who should look for the finish. Given some of the past cards at the UFC Apex, UFC Vegas 118 is one of the better cards we can look forward to.
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